After getting an appetizer in BYU’s two exhibitions versus Nebraska and North Carolina, we’ll get our first chance to see Kevin Young’s new squad in action when BYU opens the season Monday night in Las Vegas versus Villanova. This is the second game of a double header with Florida-Arizona that is part of the highlight of the opening day of the college basketball season.
The game tips off at 6:30pm PT November 3 on TNT.
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BYU and Villanova by the Numbers
Villanova KenPom: 50
BYU KenPom: 18
KenPom Prediction: BYU 80, Villanova 75 — BYU 69% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -7.5
Point Total: 153.5
Villanova Overview
After missing the NCAA Tournament three straight seasons under head coach Kyle Neptune, the Wildcats made a change this season and brought in Maryland head coach Kevin Willard. Willard led the Terrapins to the Sweet 16 last season in his third season with the team.
Villanova was picked to finish 7th in the Big East Preseason Poll out of 11 teams. They played two exhibition games, beating VCU 70-51 and losing to Virginia 75-72.
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Stylistically, Willard’s teams play at various tempos depending on his personnel but always stout defensively. His teams have ranked top 40 in KenPom defensive efficiency for four consecutive years.
Not surprisingly, Villanova’s roster is full of completely new faces. The lone returnee that played minutes for the Wildcats last year is guard Tyler Perkins, who averaged 6.3 points in 26 minutes per game last season. This offseason Willard brought in 8 players from the transfer portal and 3 freshmen.
Players to watch
Acaden Lewis, Guard — The headliner is top 50 recruit Acaden Lewis, who was rated as one of the top 5 point guards in the 2025 class. Lewis is a ball-dominant guard who can finish with both hands, make floaters, and hit tough pull up jumpers. His three-point shot is a question mark, but if he can make a couple of those he could give BYU trouble. He is on the slimmer side and isn’t going to jump off the screen with his athleticism, but he has the ability to be one of the most productive freshmen in the country. Lewis was the focus on Villanova’s offense in the two exhibitions and will be a key focus for BYU.
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Bryce Lindsay, Guard — Lindsay was Villanova’s most decorated transfer addition, winning Sun Belt Freshman and Sixth Man of the Year at James Madison after averaging 13.4 points on 45.5% shooting from the field and 41.% from three. The 6-foot-3 shot maker shot over 200 threes last season and nearly 70% of his field goal attempts were from long range. He had six games last season with at least five made threes. His lone power conference team he played last season was Wake Forest, where he scored 8 points on 2-8 shooting from the field. Lindsay started his career at Texas A&M and was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school.
Duke Brennan, Center — The 6-foot-10 transfer from Grand Canyon averaged 10 points and 9 rebounds for GCU last season. Brennan did not attempt a three-point shot last season and averaged less than half a block a game. He’s a throwback big man who can score with his back to the basket but isn’t overly athletic and not a threat to score from the outside. He will likely be the starting center and matchup with Keba Keita.
Tafara Gapare, Forward — Gapare didn’t play much for the Terps last season, but he has the most experience playing under Willard. Gapare is an athletic 6-foo-9 forward who averaged 3.4 points and nearly 1 block per game in just over 10 minutes per game last season. If Brennan is overwhelmed athletically by Keba Keita, Gapare could potentially play some five.
Matt Hodge, Forward — Hodge joined the team from Belgium last season but was forced to redshirt after being declared ineligible by the NCAA. Hodge is a wildcard for Villanova and gives them a wrinkle as a stretch four. He shot 12 threes combined in Villanova’s two exhibitions, making four of them, and is an x-factor if he can knockdown outside shots. Nebraska stretch five Rienk Mast torched BYU in the exhibition with 31 points and 7 threes, so BYU will need to key in on Hodge.
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Tyler Perkins, Guard — Mentioned above, Perkins is lone returnee that played minutes last year for Villanova. He was one of their top players off the bench and will look to play a bigger role this season.
Notable Villanova injuries
Journey man Devin Askew and Temple transfer Zion Stanford will both miss the BYU game, according to Willard. Both players are candidates to start and at a minimum will be key parts of the rotation when healthy. Sixth-year senior Devin Askew averaged 19 ppg for Long Beach State last season. Zion Stanford was Temple’s second-leading scorer, averaging 13 points and scoring 20+ points six times. Villanova played both exhibitions games without Askew and Stanford, and while their absence isn’t a fatal blow, Villanova doesn’t have clear top options and both players are expected to be among the top contributors.
Prediction
BYU is clearly the more talented team on paper. I don’t think any of Villanova’s players would start for BYU. Acaden Lewis is certainly talented and could be one of the top freshmen in the country, but he isn’t as good of a positional fit as Kennard Davis.
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BYU will need to key on disrupting Villanova’s guard. Villanova’s guards can score, but they aren’t very big and can be disrupted by BYU’s length. Acaden Lewis is a talented freshman and Bryce Lindsay showed at JMU he could go on a heater, but both can be pushed around physically and haven’t proven what they can do versus high-major competition. Villanova needs their guards to score if they want to pull the upset, and Lewis and Lindsay are the two players who are the most likely to do damage.
Offensively, I am curious to see what Rob Wright can do with Keba Keita in the pick-n-roll. Egor Demin was a master at reading opposing defenses, and while Rob is elite at coming off screens and getting to the basket, I want to see how he can involve Keba in the lob game. The reason I mention this specifically is because Villanova’s starting center Duke Brennan does not move very well laterally. Rob should be able to get to the paint and his decision making coming off screens of when he scores and how he creates for Keba and others will be a big watchout. This could be the type of game where Keba throws down multiple lobs really puts pressure on Villanova’s PNR defense. If BYU can exploit that mismatch then I think this offense can cruise.
All of that doesn’t mention AJ Dybantsa and Richie Saunders. Kevin Willard knows how to coach defense, and I think he will pack the middle and force AJ to the baselines and either score from there or find his teammates. AJ loves to score from the middle of the floor, and if he forces things there too much and turns the ball over that is where BYU’s offense can stagnate and open the door from Villanova.
Villanova is a good brand name and should be at least a Quad Two opportunity for BYU, but on paper I don’t think they are a NCAA tournament team. Willard’s team always defend well, and I think their defense and guards ability to put pressure on BYU’s will keep this competitive, but I’ll take BYU to win by double digits.
Prediction: BYU 79, Villanova 67
