Week 10 was anything but boring.
The three teams at the bottom of the top 10 in the AP Top 25 all lost on Saturday. No. 10 Miami lost in overtime to SMU. No. 9 Vanderbilt fell at No. 20 Texas. And No. 8 Georgia Tech’s undefeated season ended with a loss at NC State.
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Those losses mean the College Football Playoff selection committee have a lot more work to do before their first set of rankings.
The inaugural rankings of the 2025 season are released on Tuesday as we get our first glimpse of how the committee is thinking. With four weeks to go in the regular season, they’re going to change a lot between Tuesday and the Sunday after the conference championship games. But here’s our best guess at who the top 12 teams in that first set of rankings will be.
Top Group of Five team: Memphis (7-1): Remember, five conference champions will make the playoff. And it’s a foregone conclusion that the top 12 teams on Tuesday night won’t include a non-power conference team.
The Tigers should take over pole position for the non-power conference spot in the playoffs after Tulane’s loss to UTSA on Thursday and Navy’s loss to North Texas on Friday. Oh, Boise State lost at home to Fresno State too. San Diego State could end up in this spot, but we think Memphis will ultimately have it.
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12. Virginia (8-1): The Cavaliers are living on the edge and not falling. Yet. Virginia snapped a four-game streak of one-possession wins with a late pick-6 by Kam Robinson in a 31-21 win over Cal on Saturday. Thanks to Georgia Tech’s loss, Virginia is the only ACC team undefeated in conference play. Are the Cavaliers very good? We’re not sure. But are they the best candidate for the No. 12 spot at this point in the season? We think so.
11. Oklahoma (7-2): The Sooners hung on for a 26-24 win at Tennessee on Saturday night as the Vols turned the ball over three times and Oklahoma played most of the game without its top two defensive players as Kobe McKinzie didn’t play due to injury and edge rusher R Mason Thomas suffered a hamstring injury returning a fumble for a touchdown.
The Sooners have games against Alabama, Missouri and LSU remaining. They may need to win all three of them to make the playoff.
10. Texas Tech (8-1): The Red Raiders have been the transfer portal example of 2025 after rebuilding their defense to great results. Tech took down Kansas State on Saturday and would be the top-ranked Big 12 team in the rankings if it wasn’t for a loss to Arizona State.
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9. Notre Dame (6-2): The Fighting Irish are going to get a lot of credit for their two losses coming to Miami and Texas A&M. That Miami loss looks worse and worse with each passing week, though we think that Week 1 will be discounted across the board by the committee.
Notre Dame had a little more trouble with Boston College than it might have anticipated — the Irish won 25-10 as 30-point favorites — but this is a team that has a very clear path to 10-2. As long as the kicking game doesn’t get in the way. Notre Dame’s chances at getting back to the national title game may hinge on an incredibly unreliable field goal unit.
8. BYU (8-0): The Cougars can claim to be one of four undefeated teams remaining after they were off in Week 10. BYU has won its first eight games with a true freshman quarterback and grinning attack that’s one of the best in college football. The biggest test of the season comes in Week 11 in a trip to Texas Tech.
7: Ole Miss (8-1): The Rebels did what they needed to do against South Carolina to relegate the Gamecocks to a sixth loss on the season. Ole Miss has Florida, The Citadel and Mississippi State remaining in the regular season. Even if Ole Miss doesn’t make the SEC title game, the Rebels are the safest playoff bet of any SEC team.
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6: Oregon (7-1): The Ducks had their final off week of the season on Saturday as they hope for a loss from Ohio State or two losses from Indiana to make the Big Ten title game. A trip to Iowa in Week 11 could be tricky, but the Ducks are going to be favored in their final four games of the season.
5. Georgia (7-1): The Bulldogs sure love close games, huh? Georgia got a good break and then did plenty to put Florida away on Saturday. Five of Georgia’s six SEC games have been decided by 10 points or fewer and four of those five have been by one possession. The Bulldogs are good — and prove it in the clutch — but they should win by more than 10 at Mississippi State in Week 11. Right?
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No. 4 Alabama (7-1): The Crimson Tide’s Week 1 loss to Florida State has to be discounted at this point. Alabama is a vastly different team with a Heisman contender at quarterback and a defense that’s making plays when it needs to.
No. 3 Texas A&M (8-0): The Aggies were off on Saturday and are the lone undefeated team remaining in the SEC. Wins over Notre Dame and LSU should position the Aggies well, especially since the victory over the Tigers sent the state of Louisiana into a full-blown panic over the past week. This seems pretty straightforward.
No. 2 Indiana (9-0): Saturday’s trip to Maryland could have been a trap game of sorts for the Hoosiers with a trip to Penn State looming in two weeks and after a huge win over UCLA the week before. Nope. Indiana made mincemeat of Maryland in a 55-10 win. The Hoosiers have now won four Big Ten games by 25 or more points and Fernando Mendoza is a Heisman contender.
No. 1 Ohio State (8-0): The Buckeyes gave up a season-high 14 first-half points in their 38-14 win over Penn State. Despite the abysmal defense — hopefully you sense the sarcasm there — the game was a microcosm of how good Ohio State is. Jeremiah Smith made a ridiculous catch and Julian Sayin had more TD passes (4) than incompletions (3). There’s isn’t much more to say about the defending national champions at this point other than they could be better than they were a season ago.
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Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers
Winners
New Mexico: Welcome to bowl eligibility, New Mexico. The Lobos social media team celebrated in style after a 40-35 win over UNLV in coach Jason Eck’s first season.
D.J. McKinney scored the winner with 2:54 to go to give New Mexico the lead after UNLV had erased a 13-point deficit. QB Jack Layne was 17-of-22 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns while QB James Laubstein also threw for a TD and led the team in rushing with eight carries for 99 yards. New Mexico has won three straight games and, at 6-3 overall, has a great chance for an 8 or even 9-win season. The Lobos’ remaining games are against Colorado State, Air Force and MWC leader San Diego State.
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North Carolina: We need to recognize the Tar Heels when things go well. UNC got its first ACC win of Bill Belichick’s tenure on Friday night in a 27-10 win over Syracuse. QB Gio Lopez was 15-of-19 passing for 216 yards and two touchdowns while RB Demon June had 13 carries for 101 yards and a TD. Syracuse started true freshman Joseph Filardi and he didn’t complete his first pass until midway through the second quarter. The Orange had just 147 yards of total offense.
Mississippi State: The Bulldogs’ long SEC losing streak is over. MSU’s Anthony Evans III caught an 18-yard pass from Blake Shapen with 48 seconds to go to give the Bulldogs a 38-35 win at Arkansas on Saturday night. The win snaps a 16-game conference drought that dated back to the midway point of the 2023 season.
Arkansas, meanwhile, committed 18 penalties for 193 yards as the Razorbacks dropped to 2-7 overall and 0-5 in the SEC. The chances of interim coach Bobby Petrino getting the permanent gig seem pretty much slim-to-none as Arkansas has now lost seven straight games and four straight since Sam Pittman was fired.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers got their first Big 12 win of the season in a 45-35 win at No. 22 Houston. QB Scotty Fox rushed 10 times for 65 yards and two TDs and was 13-of-22 passing for 157 yards and a score. The defense forced four turnovers — two fumbles and two sacks — as West Virginia outscored Houston 24-14 in the second half.
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Losers
Clemson: It’s been a horrific season for the Tigers. Clemson dropped to 3-5 overall and 2-4 in the ACC with a 46-45 home loss to Duke on Saturday. Yeah, the fourth-down pass interference call was bad, but like coach Dabo Swinney said, Clemson has to stop making mistakes. The Tigers allowed 361 passing yards and squandered an offensive performance that included 560 total yards and four rushing touchdowns as Duke had two passing TDs of over 40 yards and also had a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD.
Deion Sanders’ team is now 1-5 in Big 12 play. (Photo by Andrew Wevers/Getty Images)
(Andrew Wevers via Getty Images)
Colorado: What a bad two weeks it’s been for the Buffaloes. After getting thrashed at Utah, Colorado lost 52-17 at home during homecoming to Arizona. The Wildcats were up 38-7 at halftime as Colorado turned the ball over five times and committed 14 penalties for 110 yards.
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Hardly anything went right for the Buffaloes as they are now 3-6 overall and 1-5 in the Big 12. Colorado needs to beat West Virginia, Arizona State and Kansas State to make a bowl game. Given the way the Buffs have played recently, that’s unlikely to happen.
Navy: The Midshipmen’s undefeated season is over as North Texas beat Navy 31-17. The Midshipmen averaged over seven yards a carry and moved the ball well, but QB Blake Horvath threw two interceptions and fumbled once while Navy also committed eight penalties. It’s a big blow to Navy’s hopes of making the playoff, as the Midshipmen still have games remaining against Notre Dame, South Florida and Memphis before their annual rivalry game with Navy. North Texas, meanwhile, is now 8-1 and in the middle of a six-team fight for the American Conference title.
Boise State: As the American descends into chaos, Boise State demolished its own chances of making the College Football Playoff for a second straight season with a 30-7 home loss to Fresno State. The Bulldogs scored 24 straight points as Boise State turned the ball over three times. Neither team eclipsed 225 total yards in an ugly game, and Fresno State’s Carson Conklin was 10-of-21 passing for 35 yards. Yet the Bulldogs took advantage of those turnovers and rushed for three scores.
Iowa State: The Cyclones fell to 5-4 overall and 2-4 in the Big 12 with a 24-19 home loss to an Arizona State team that didn’t have QB Sam Leavitt. Backup QB Jeff Sims was 13-of-24 passing for 177 yards and rushed 29 times for 228 yards and two touchdowns. It was the best performance if Sims’ long and well-traveled college career as Arizona State moved to 6-3 and 4-2 in the Big 12. ISU at least got some good news when TE Ben Brahmer was discharged from a local hospital after he collapsed on the field following a big hit.
