Kentucky Wildcats basketball is officially back as the regular season tips off at Rupp Arena on Tuesday with the BBN United Tipoff Classic. It begins with the Nicholls Colonels, led by third-year head coach and alum, Tayvon Saddler.
The Colonels have finished in the top three of the Southland conference in back-to-back seasons, but look to be in for a bit of rebuilding year after losing multiple all-conference players.
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For Kentucky, this is about finding a rhythm. After the high of the Purdue win, the Wildcats laid a dud against Georgetown less than a week later. Nicholls is just one of two games before the highly anticipated Kentucky-Louisville game.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Point Guard Watch
One of the key focuses of Mark Pope’s offense is the assist-to-turnover ratio, aiming for a 3:1 ratio (3 assists per turnover).
Against Georgetown, the Wildcats finished with 15 turnovers to 14 assists, for a putrid .93:1.
“For me, that was the indicator of the game for us,” Pope said after the game.
Last season, the Wildcats were 0-8 in games where they finished with more turnovers than assists, including their Sweet 16 loss to Tennessee.
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Against the Hoyas, the Wildcats were without point guards Jaland Lowe and Denzel Aberdeen, who are sidelined with injuries, and had to rely on a freshman Jasper Johnson and shooting guard Collin Chandler.
Still, since depth is a key strength, the Wildcats have to learn to execute despite injuries and foul trouble.
Toughness
Georgetown threw the first punch, and Kentucky just could never really overcome that.
“I do think we have some toughness and some fight, even though we were out-physicalled for the whole night tonight,” Pope said after the game. “They really picked on us.”
While Kentucky did win the rebounding battle, it lost the interior scoring battle, 24 points to Georgetown’s 38 points. The Wildcats missed their fair share of open shots, but the Hoyas’ physicality limited the Wildcats to 33% shooting.
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This Kentucky roster was built to compete in the SEC, bringing in two inter-conference transfers, Denzel Aberdeen and Mo Dioubate. As Mark Pope says, they need to be the hammer, not the nail.
3-Point Shooting
This team may not have a world-class shooter like Koby Brea, but Mark Pope believes that this year’s team could be a better shooting team as a whole.
Through three exhibition games, that has not been the case, shooting a combined 27 percent from deep.
Part of the issue is that Kentucky’s lead distributors are out with injury. Another part is shot selection.
However, Kentucky’s two best shooters, Trent Noah and Kam Williams, are a combined 5-19 from beyond the arc.
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It’s been a small sample size, but it will be a worry if the trend continues, especially against non-power teams such as Nicholls.
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Time: 7:00 PM ET on November 4
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Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY
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TV Channel: SEC Network+ (online streaming only)
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Online Stream: SEC Network+ and the ESPN app.
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Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for the game, but check back later. As far as the metrics go, KenPom is the most confident in Kentucky, giving them a 99.5% of victory. EvanMiya is the closest behind at 98.5%, followed by BartTorvik at 98%, DRatings at 97.5%, and ESPN at 97.4%.
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Predictions: Similar to the projected winning percentages, the analytics are going with a blowout. KenPom is going with the largest victory at 18 points, 90-62. BartTorvik (88-61) and Haslametrics (92-65) are going with 27-point victories. EvanMiya (89-63) and DRatings (91-68) round out the metrics. I believe this is an easy Kentucky win to start the season, 87-64.
Send us your Kentucky vs. Nicholls score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!
