A couple of weeks ago, we highlighted the concept of exploring fantasy production by lines, as opposed to individual players. The thought experiment to explore the fantasy value of lines goes like this: What if fantasy points only counted for a line when the same three players were on the ice together at 5-on-5?
For example, when Nathan MacKinnon gets a goal or an assist — or even a hit or shot on goal — we count only the fantasy points if its even strength and both Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas are on the ice with him. That’s the line, by the way, that led the league on Oct. 14, and they still lead the league now, with 59.6 fantasy points earned by all three players.
But let’s break down the statistics even further: Which players are driving the fantasy value on those lines?
Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play | Drops | Top lines chart
By looking at what percentage of the fantasy points generated by a line are created by each individual player, we get a closer look at who is doing the heavy lifting, and by extension, which line is better for an individual player you have on your roster.
Let’s take the Toronto Maple Leafs as an example, as they are certainly still trying to figure out which combinations to roll for the top six. Here are the lines Auston Matthews has spent at least 20 minutes with at 5-on-5 this season, sorted by their total fantasy points (FP). Included is how much each forward contributed to that fantasy total, as well as the time on ice and the fantasy points per 10 minutes (FPP10).
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17.8 FP – Matthew Knies (4.1), William Nylander (6.0), Auston Matthews (7.7), (28:38, 6.2 FPP10)
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6.9 FP – Matthew Knies (2.0), Auston Matthews (3.4), Matias Maccelli (1.5), (21:39, 3.2 FPP10)
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10.9 FP – Matthew Knies (3.3), Easton Cowan (2.3), Auston Matthews (5.3), (37:34, 2.9 FPP10)
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4.4 FP – Bobby McMann (0.6), Auston Matthews (1.7), William Nylander (2.1), (23:36, 1.9 FPP10)
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2.4 FP – Nicholas Robertson (0.4), Bobby McMann (0.8), Auston Matthews (1.2), (23:07, 1.0 FPP10)
And here’s the same data for William Nylander.
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17.8 FP – Matthew Knies (4.1), William Nylander (6.0), Auston Matthews (7.7), (28:38, 6.2 FPP10)
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18.4 FP – William Nylander (6.4), John Tavares (9.1), Matias Maccelli (2.9), (42:15, 4.4 FPP10)
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6.2 FP – Bobby McMann (3.9), William Nylander (1.0), John Tavares (1.3), (20:52, 3.0 FPP10)
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4.4 FP – Bobby McMann (0.6), Auston Matthews (1.7), William Nylander (2.1), (23:36, 1.9 FPP10)
What this can tell us is that Nylander’s fantasy value doesn’t hinge on Matthews the way Matthews’ does on Nylander. Nylander’s been able to drive offense alongside Tavares just as effectively than he has next to Matthews. Matthews, meanwhile, sees his best fantasy efficiency when paired with Nylander. For fantasy managers, that makes Nylander’s production a little more stable through potential line shuffles, while Matthews’ ceiling at 5-on-5 is more tied to whether he’s flanked by a high-end winger.
For reference, that 6.2 FPP10 rate by the Knies, Nylander and Matthews line is the highest rate among any line with at least 20 minutes of ice time this season. The trio was back together on Monday evening, and on the ice for three goals in the comeback victory against the Penguins.
That doesn’t leave John Tavares in great position, of course, but his line with Bobby McMann and Easton Cowan on Monday did generate 4.0 FPP10, so there is still some value.
It’s still early, but patterns like these will help identify which players are carrying the offense and which are along for the ride. Over time, the lines that sustain high FPP10 rates with consistent shares across multiple players will be the ones you can trust, both for stacking in daily fantasy and for evaluating who might keep producing even if their combinations change.
To see the top 50 lines, click here.
Goalie notes
Here’s this week’s selection of goaltending snapshots, showing crease shares, fantasy production, and key notes where relevant.
Anaheim Ducks in 11 games (three last week):
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Lukas Dostal (crease share season/week: 81.9%/100.0%, fantasy points season/week: 25.4/20.2, 46.0% available, 2.81 FPP60)
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Petr Mrazek (crease share season/week: 18.1%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -3.4/DNP, 98.9% available, -1.71 FPP60)
Dostal’s rostership lags behind his production. He ranks ninth among goaltenders in fantasy points per 60 minutes (minimum 45% crease share) and carries the league’s third-highest workload. He’s worth picking up wherever possible.
Colorado Avalanche in 13 games (four last week):
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Scott Wedgewood (crease share season/week: 77.9%/49.2%, fantasy points season/week: 25.2/5.4, 34.7% available, 2.46 FPP60)
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Trent Miner (crease share season/week: 14.3%/25.4%, fantasy points season/week: 2.0/-3.0, 99.8% available, 1.06 FPP60)
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Mackenzie Blackwood (crease share season/week: 7.8%/25.4%, fantasy points season/week: -1.0/-1.0, 23.0% available, -0.97 FPP60)
Blackwood made his season debut on Saturday and remains available in just under a quarter of leagues. Especially based on the early returns from backup Wedgewood, Blackwood has a path to the top of the fantasy goaltender heap.
Detroit Red Wings in 13 games (four last week):
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John Gibson (crease share season/week: 50.4%/48.0%, fantasy points season/week: 2.8/1.4, 78.6% available, 0.42 FPP60)
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Cam Talbot (crease share season/week: 49.6%/52.0%, fantasy points season/week: 15.2/8.2, 79.5% available, 2.33 FPP60)
The playing time issues will keep him in the middle of the pack, but Talbot is deserving of a look. Outside of a mega-hiccup against the New York Islanders when he allowed seven goals, his production has been elite, winning five of six starts.
Philadelphia Flyers in 12 games (five last week):
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Dan Vladar (crease share season/week: 54.9%/42.0%, fantasy points season/week: 22.0/3.4, 80.4% available, 3.31 FPP60)
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Samuel Ersson (crease share season/week: 34.9%/27.1%, fantasy points season/week: 1.4/4.8, 98.0% available, 0.33 FPP60)
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Aleksei Kolosov (crease share season/week: 10.2%/30.9%, fantasy points season/week: 1.2/1.2, 99.2% available, 0.97 FPP60)
It’s tough for a goalie on a low-ranked team to stay fantasy relevant, but Vladar is giving it the ol’ college try. His FPP60 ranks fifth in the league (minimum 45% crease share). Aside from his most recent game against the Maple Leafs, he posted positive fantasy points in every outing, even in losses.
Vegas Golden Knights in 11 games (three last week):
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Akira Schmid (crease share season/week: 49.2%/33.2%, fantasy points season/week: 14.8/2.2, 89.1% available, 2.69 FPP60)
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Adin Hill (crease share season/week: 32.8%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 1.8/DNP, 23.5% available, 0.49 FPP60)
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Carl Lindbom (crease share season/week: 17.9%/66.8%, fantasy points season/week: 0.6/0.6, 99.9% available, 0.3 FPP60)
It remains unclear when Hill might return, since he was tabbed as week-to-week back on Oct. 22. Schmid is earning modest fantasy value in the meantime, but the Knights’ schedule has done him and Lindbom no favors. Don’t forget that Carter Hart is signed and will be eligible to play again on Dec. 1. There’s an argument to be made for stashing him (96.2% available) given Hill’s history with workload.
Power-play notes
Sam Rinzel, D, Chicago Blackhawks (87.7% available): Rinzel isn’t producing power-play points yet, but the outlook has improved for the whole unit. Andre Burakovsky looks like a strong fit for Connor Bedard, as they’ve clicked at even strength. Burakovsky has replaced Teuvo Teravainen on the top unit. The Hawks are giving Rinzel plenty of rope at the point, and the group’s shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2) have increased: the Burakovsky unit is at 3.59 SAP2 versus 2.75 SAP2 for the Teravainen group.
Victor Olofsson, RW, Colorado Avalanche (89.7% available): Emerging as a power-play specialist, Olofsson needs a fair bit more to become truly fantasy relevant. That said, when the Avs have a four-game week, he’s earning enough to warrant consideration for streaming. Plus, with the talent on this top unit, they could go on a tear at any time.
Tyler Seguin, RW, Dallas Stars (88.1% available): Seguin isn’t roster-worthy yet, averaging just 1.15 FPPG, but the Stars’ power play is intriguing. Over the past 10 games, nine different unit configurations have scored, and Seguin has been part of four. Most importantly, he’s getting top-unit time while Roope Hintz is sidelined.
Jack Roslovic, C, Edmonton Oilers (96.3% available): Roslovic has climbed the Oilers depth chart, producing alongside Leon Draisaitl at even strength and on the power play. Since replacing David Tomasek on the top unit over the past two games, the group has scored three power-play goals. Temper your excitement, though, as Zach Hyman could return soon and likely bump Roslovic off the advantage.
Ben Kindel, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (98.5% available): After a brief trial with Anthony Mantha as Rickard Rakell‘s replacement, Kindel has settled into the top power-play unit for the past three games. The unit has scored in each game, with Kindel picking up a point in two of them.
Droppables
What to do with our formerly fantasy-relevant Flames defenders? Ice time is fine, deployment is as expected, but results have been disappointing.
Through 14 games last season, Weegar had three more goals (vs. zero this season), one fewer assist, 13 more shots, 11 more blocked shots, and the same number of hits — totaling 34.3 fantasy points compared to his current 23.0 (1.6 FPPG).
Andersson was even more productive last season: two more goals, five more assists, seven fewer shots, 27 additional blocked shots, and the same number of hits, totaling 42.2 fantasy points through 14 games versus 21.4 (1.5 FPPG) this season.
The lack of points and blocked shots is the main difference early this campaign. Andersson eventually settled down and stopped blocking so many shots, but both players finished above 2.0 FPPG in 2024-25.
Dropping either one now would be premature. Weegar has a long history of strong production, and Andersson could get a boost midseason via the trade market. They may be borderline for starting rosters, but both have too much potential to cut bait.
