The latest UFC betting scandal has fans wondering what, if anything, will become of it. And just how prevalent (and easy to get away with) might this kind of thing be at the highest levels of MMA?
All that, plus a little UFC 322 discussion as we look ahead to this month’s title-tastic event at Madison Square Garden. To ask your own question, hit up @BenFowlkesMMA.
@NeedXtoseePosts: What are the odds (humour) anything comes of this betting hullabaloo?
Something has to come of this one. Unless an investigation conclusively shows that it was all a big misunderstanding (Isaac Dulgarian still has not made any public statement, as of the time of this writing, which seems odd, considering what he’s accused of and the potential for it to basically end his whole career), something has to happen this time. Especially because so very little has come of the last one. Which is to say, the last one that we know about.
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It’d be a little too naive of us to assume the only times this kind of thing has happened in the UFC are the times people got caught. If the success rate for catching people in this kind of betting scheme was really 100%, you’d think that would be a deterrent. Even so, the Darrick Minner situation from 2022 still hasn’t landed anyone in jail or even a courtroom. The only penalties were athletic commission sanctions, and even those weren’t exactly severe.
According to UFC CEO Dana White, the investigation into that one is still ongoing even three years later. White also insisted that the UFC is going hard after those who would do this kind of thing.
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“If you try to do this, I’ve been very vocal and very open about this, we will be your worst enemy,” White told TMZ Sports. “We will immediately go after you, guns a-blazing, with the FBI and whoever we need to get, and we will do everything we can to make sure you go to prison.”
So far, that’s been more talk than action. It’s not a great look. You can yell into a microphone about it all you want, but at some point we need to see something get done. At least if we’re ever going to believe that it won’t just keep happening.
@Rob83871601: Do you think fighter pay has affected the potential of thrown fights? You would think if fighters made more it would be much harder to convince them to get involved in illegal activities.
It can’t help that fighters are among the lowest-paid athletes you’ll ever see on ESPN (and at this point that includes many college football players), but we also shouldn’t pretend that higher pay would fix everything. The recent NBA betting scandal suggests that even people making millions of dollars can be convinced to risk it all through greed or pure stupidity.
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But MMA is more vulnerable to this kind of thing for a few different reasons. The low pay is definitely part of that, as is the fact that fighters often go into debt just to train for these fights. But there are other important factors too.
It’s an individual sport, which always makes stuff easier to fix, since you only have to pay off one person. Fighters are also spread out all over the place, with no real oversight from the UFC, which usually doesn’t even see them until a few days before each fight.
Plus, let’s be real, MMA has long tolerated a lot of scumbags in our midst. Shady managers. Unscrupulous figures of all stripes. We have fighters who are trying to get their ankle monitors off in time to fight, so it’s not like we don’t know there are crimes in the conversation. Maybe we just foolishly assumed they weren’t the widespread conspiratorial variety.
@EyeofMihawk: Why wouldn’t Ngannou agree to fight Jake Paul? Even if Jake isn’t serious about fighting him, and I very much doubt he is, why would you act like you wouldn’t take that fight?
Because it cheapens you, especially if you’re really trying to be a serious heavyweight boxer. It’s not just that it’s Jake Paul offering the fight. It’s that he’s trying to go from Gervonta Davis to Francis Ngannou, which makes Ngannou look like the guy you get when you can’t get anyone else.
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I agree that Paul wouldn’t actually do that fight if it came down to it. He might be a nut, but he’s not stupid. Target selection has been Paul’s greatest skill in boxing so far, and he’s not about to go out there and get decapitated by Ngannou live on Netflix. So I don’t blame Ngannou for declining to join the circus on this one. And it’s not like he needs the money.
@JedKMeshew: If you were a fighter and were going to throw a fight, how would you do it?
There’s the question of how to do it, and then there’s the question of how to get away with it. The first one is a lot easier to answer than the second. This sport offers so many ways to lose, and not all of them involve great bodily harm. Trying for a half-hearted takedown to force a grappling exchange and then giving up your back en route to a rear-naked choke — just as a for-instance — would be a great way to lose on purpose without having to get punched in the head a bunch.
But how do you profit from it at the sportsbooks without setting off alarms? That’s the hard part. The betting handle on some UFC Fight Night undercard bout from the APEX is typically not at Super Bowl levels. If too much money comes in on one otherwise unremarkable fight, or on specific props like a first-round finish, that’s probably easy for online sportsbooks to notice and flag in advance. And if the bets come from accounts that are not usually very active, that makes it even easier. No way someone lets their account sit dormant for two years only to wake up one day and put $10,000 on a UFC Fight Night prelim bout to end via first-round submission or whatever.
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Fixing a fight in the UFC is probably relatively easy, especially if the UFC refuses to pull bouts even when it’s warned of suspicious activity in advance. It’s staying undetected long enough to spend the winnings that seems trickier.
@BFTDMMA: Do you think Valentina uses the Grasso III strategy against Weili, and attempt to overwhelm her with top control and pressure?
How do you see Brady-Morales playing out?
I think Valentina Shevchenko’s best and safest path to victory is a slow, somewhat boring fight. Zhang Weili is faster and more dynamic in basically every aspect of the game at this point. Shevchenko has begun to slow at age 37, but she’s also a savvy veteran of the game who can make up for what she’s lost in athleticism with smart, tactical game-planning. The more fun this fight is to watch, the worse it probably is for Shevchenko.
As for Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales, I’m leaning toward Brady but also willing to admit that it’s basically a toss-up and I could see either guy winning. That’s a good piece of matchmaking, right there. The fight itself is flying a little under the radar for now, but I can’t wait to see how it shakes out.
@formyxscarfalo1: Do you think Islam or JDM takes it next weekend?
I can’t bring myself to pick against Islam Makhachev at this point. Even up a weight class, he’s just so dangerous everywhere and so capable of making everyone fight his kind of fight.
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I feel a little bit bad for overlooking Jack Della Maddalena. Feels like, until we see him defend the belt, the MMA community is going to look at him like he’s some kind of fluke champion. He’s not. He’s legitimately very good. But style-wise, I think Makhachev is a real problem for him. Then again, it wouldn’t be the first time we were reminded that weight classes exist for a reason.
