After a historic World Series, the MLB offseason is underway, and we’re taking you through the potential markets for some of the biggest stars. So far we discussed the market and potential landing spots for Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, and Bo Bichette, and Matthew Pouliot also ranked every free agent on the market this offseason.
Today, I’m going to continue with the curious case of Kyle Tucker. At one point, he looked set to challenge Juan Soto with one of the biggest free agent contracts in recent memory. However, two seasons marred by injuries that weren’t properly identified marred his ascent into super stardom. So, are MLB teams still willing to bet on Tucker as a bona fide star? That could be one of the most important questions of the offseason.
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▶ Tucker in Review
Sadly, Tucker’s 2025 season was his second season in a row that we can’t discuss without mentioning injuries.
On the season, Tucker hit .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases in 136 games. Overall, not bad numbers, but that 136-game number stands out, especially since he only played 78 games in 2024. However, before we dive into the question marks on the bad news, let’s focus on what Tucker showed on the field.
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The 29-year-old slashed .291/.395/.537 with 17 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases in his first 83 games of the 2025 season. He then suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand while sliding into second base in early June. Of course, it would have been nice if we knew that’s what happened when the injury occurred; yet, much like in 2024, the injury was not immediately diagnosed as a fracture, and, this time, Tucker continued to play before the pain and discomfort got worse.
In 48 games in July and August, while Tucker battled through the injury, he hit .232/.363/.345 with four homers and 18 RBIs. Then, a calf strain caused him to miss three weeks in September, and we ended the season with a drastically different feeling about Tucker’s talent and performance than we had when June began.
Still, we need to take the context of the injuries into account. Fracturing your hand when sliding into second base and fracturing your shin by fouling a ball off of it, as he did in 2024, are not recurring injuries. They are fluky injuries that shouldn’t make teams worry about Tucker’s ability to stay healthy. Since his breakout season in 2021, Tucker has played at least 140 games in three seasons and averaged 149 games per year. There is no reason for teams not to expect him to get back to that level.
Tucker will also be 29 years old next season, so it should be a few years before we see his skills erode. Yes, his barrel rate dropped to 10.8% this season, and his hard-hit rate was a career-low 40.2%, but those numbers are also impacted by the weeks he spent trying to hit with a fractured hand. That could also be the reason why his performance against fastballs dipped as well. But what we do know is that he has now posted a fWAR of at least 4.2 in every season since 2020 and has not seen his wRC+ dip below 130 since then either. Even in an injury-impacted season, his 136 wRC+ this season was good for 16th in baseball, tied with Matt Olson and Byron Buxton, and one point below Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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There’s still a strong case that Tucker is a top 10 offensive player in baseball.
▶ Market Outlook
At one point, it looked like Kyle Tucker was a lock to push somewhere close to Juan Soto’s $765 million contract with the Mets. However, injuries over the last two seasons have made that outcome unlikely. Still, Tucker remains one of the most talented players in baseball and should command a deal close to, or larger than, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 14-year, $500 million extension with the Blue Jays last off-season.
It’s unlikely that Tucker will get 14 years considering he’s 29 years old, but his 13.6 fWAR over the last three years far outpaces Guerrero’s 9.8 mark, and Tucker not only has more defensive value currently but should be able to easily transition into a DH role as he ages. If we believe he will command more than Guerrero but less than Soto, that would put Tucker at about $39 million per season.
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The rest of the factors in the larger free agent market don’t really impact Tucker. It doesn’t matter how many other impact hitters are available or whether the outfield class is deep or shallow. Players like Tucker exist in a free agent landscape of their own. They are franchise-altering pieces. They can single-handedly shift the outlook of a team’s season and its World Series hopes. The only factor in the market that impacts what a team would offer Tucker is simply how much money they have to spend on him.
We also should note that, with a potential lockout looming, some team could make an excessive offer to Tucker and use tons of deferred money before the league decides to cut back on that. We know one team that would be more than happy to take that approach.
▶ Best Fits
Cubs: We can start with the team that Tucker played for last year. We know they need his bat, and we know they have the money to pay him, especially with them moving on from the remainder of Shota Imanaga‘s contract. However, you could argue that an extension could have been worked out between the two sides earlier in the season or immediately after the trade if Tucker really wanted to stay. The Cubs have not been aggressive on free agents in recent years, so this feels a bit unlikely.
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Dodgers: The Dodgers are the heavy favorites here because, well, they always are. They played Michael Conforto in the outfield for much of the 2025 season, so we know they have a need in the outfield, and the World Series showed us that their lineup is missing another impactful hitter or two. While it may not seem like they can afford to sign Tucker, we know that they can always find a way.
Yankees: Both Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham are free agents, which means that the Yankees have a hole in the outfield that can be filled. Jasson Dominguez has proven to be a better defender in center field than as a corner outfielder, so the Yankees could move him there and have Tucker and Aaron Judge as their corner outfielders for the foreseeable future.
Giants: We know the Giants would make a move like this because they swung for the fences when they traded for Rafael Devers. Still, even after that addition, their offense lacked punch. But will Tucker want to sign to play in a stadium that doesn’t profile extremely well for left-handed hitters?
Phillies: The Phillies have been a World Series contender for a few years now, but keep coming up short. They are getting older, and the time is now. With Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto now free agents, there is money for them to spend on Tucker.
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Astros: Yes, the Astros traded Tucker away, but they also let Carlos Correa go and then just brought him back last season. Houston still needs an impact bat in the outfield, and so maybe they decide that a reunion makes some sense.
Contract Prediction
I still expect Tucker to command a large offer this offseason. I think the contract could go up to 12 years, but I’m going to be a tad more cautious here. I’m also going to pivot from the expected Dodgers landing spot, partly out of spite, but also because Tucker, from his time with the Astros, strikes me as a player who wants to compete to take down the Dodgers, not join them. Tucker is originally from Florida, so let’s put him back on the East Coast with a chance to play with other stars and win a title.
