A new feeling surrounds Northwestern’s season. After a 5-3 start, the Wildcats not only have a great opportunity to make a bowl game, but the belief that they can compete with some of college football’s most feared opponents. Traveling to the Coliseum to face 6-2 USC, Northwestern will meet a storied program for the first time since 1996, whose size, speed and national profile present a daunting test. For David Braun’s team, it’s an opportunity to make a statement on the road, while for USC, it’s a crucial B1G conference game on the path to a College Football Playoff appearance. Northwestern is the big underdog in this game, with the Trojans favored by 14.5. Here’s how things will matchup on Friday, and the factors that might determine an upset, or leave Northwestern flying back east with four losses:
Why Northwestern will beat USC
Success running the ball
Northwestern’s total yards per game is on the lower side of the B1G: 360.3 puts them 11th. However, despite an early season injury to star running back Cam Porter, offensive coordinator Zach Lujan’s running scheme has still been extremely effective. The ‘Cats rank 5th in the conference in rushing yards per game, racking up close to 200 yards per game on the ground thus far this season. With a strong offensive line, and a deep running back room that features Caleb Komolafe, Joseph Himon II and Dashun Reeder, the ‘Cats have established a strong offensive identity on the ground that has been somewhat matchup proof throughout the season.
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Considering Northwestern’s prowess running the football, USC’s defense is a good matchup for the ‘Cats. USC’s 143.1 rush yards allowed per game ranks 11th in the B1G. Moreover, USC does not have a top linebacker or safety, known for being deceptive at sniffing out run plays and racking up tackles. The Trojans’ top tackler on the season is linebacker Eric Gentry, who ranks 17th in the B1G with 57 total tackles.
At the end of the day, USC is 6-2, and has won games despite having a subpar run defense. The kicker, however, is that the three games where USC has given up its most rushing yards of the season, were its three closest games of the season—two of which it lost. Against Notre Dame, USC surrendered 306 yards on the ground, falling 34-24. Even last week against Nebraska, a close game they won, the Nebraska offense stayed in the game by running the ball, totalling 188 rushing yards. The way to beat USC is by beating them on the ground, and Northwestern has a running game capable of doing just that.
‘Cats pass defense
While USC’s offense is super versatile, the most explosive part of their offense is the passing game. Led by Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon, the Trojan passing game has totalled 302.3 yards per game this season—that’s first in the B1G. On top of that, the Trojans average 9.6 yards per passing attempt (2nd in B1G), exemplifying that their passing game has an explosive nature. The Trojans get big plays, and Northwestern has to be able to take that away.
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Fortunately, though USC is likely to be the best offense Northwestern has faced this season, to this point the Wildcats have done a good job limiting explosive passing plays. Northwestern ranks 5th in the B1G in passing yards allowed per game, ahead of nationally ranked No. 2 Indiana, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington. Additionally, Northwestern has only allowed six passing plays of 30+ yards on the season, allowing less than one of these plays per game. For context, USC typically has two or three 30+ yard passing plays every game. So, while USC’s passing offense is definitely intimidating, Northwestern has shown they have the tools to take away the big plays that Maiava and the Trojans thrive upon.
Northwestern will be rested and prepared
With this game taking place on Friday night, USC will be coming off a short week, getting just five days of rest after playing in Lincoln last Saturday. On the other hand, Northwestern is coming off of a restful bye week and will enter the game off of 13 days of rest. Though it might seem silly to consider this as an actual factor in the game, for Northwestern, an underdog in this game, that bye week could be the extra juice it needs to be competitive in this football game. For two straight weeks, all David Braun and his coaching staff have had to focus on is USC, while the Trojans have had just six days of rest and six days of preparation to get ready to face the Wildcats. It might not matter, but the ‘Cats will certainly be going into Los Angeles with a plan they are confident in after lots of practice.
Why Northwestern won’t beat USC
USC’s offensive talent
This will likely be the most talented offense Northwestern has faced all season. Though it’s true Northwestern may be able to run the ball, or limit big chunk plays, USC has consistently shown throughout the season that its offense can’t be stopped, with their 505.9 yards per game being 2nd in the nation.
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USC has three day one draft prospects on the offensive side of the ball. 6’7”, 320-pound Elijah Paige anchors the offensive line, after a redshirt first-year 2024 season where he allowed just two sacks in 13 games. Along with Paige, USC has a claim (with Ohio State) to the best wide receiver room in the country. Ja’Kobi Lane, a junior, has 26 catches for 446 yards on the season, and has gone for over 100 yards in a single game twice. Meanwhile, Makai Lemon, also a junior, has 50 receptions for 776 yards and six touchdowns, with three 100+ yard performances.
Finally, Jayden Maiava quarterbacks the offense. After a big sophomore season at UNLV, Maiava transferred to USC, ranked as a four-star transfer by 247 Sports. Though Maiava has less NFL talent than his offensive peers, he has had a huge season for the Trojans, throwing for 2,315 yards (14th in the nation) and 15 touchdowns on a 65.3% completion percentage that’s six points higher than it was last season. Though he can make mistakes, Maiava can make all the throws, and has done a good job facilitating the ball to his talented wide receivers.
USC’s CFP hopes depend on this game
At the end of the day, USC needs to win this game more than the ‘Cats. As a program, USC has championship aspirations, and it has angered the Trojan fanbase that the team has not been able to make the College Football Playoff since its inception. USC has the big money head coach in Lincoln Riley, and has brought in highly touted recruiting classes, but they’re yet to put things together and formulate an impressive postseason campaign. However, USC is not out of things this season. At 6-2, if USC wins out, they will almost certainly be in the playoff, having picked up late season wins against No. 19 Iowa and No. 9 Oregon. Before Riley’s boys can even think about the Iowa-Oregon back-to-back, they have to get through Northwestern, making Friday night’s game a must-win game for the Trojans.
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On the other hand, Northwestern is not expected to win this game, nor do they need to win this game. The goal for the Wildcats is a bowl game, and they don’t need to pick up a game this week in order to fulfill that aspiration. At 5-3, Northwestern needs just one more win, and its best opportunities to do so will come in later weeks against unranked Illinois and Minnesota. So while the ‘Cats certainly wouldn’t mind pulling off the upset, USC will be playing for more in this matchup, and that added motivation will make things hard for Northwestern to stun the world.
Turnover trouble
In each of the three games Northwestern has lost this season, Preston Stone has thrown at least two interceptions. These picks have been costly for the ‘Cats, giving opponents short field touchdown drives, or stripping Northwestern of a scoring opportunity.
Unfortunately for Northwestern, USC’s defense has picked its opponents off nine times this season. For context, this total is almost twice the interception amount that previous opponents like Tulane, Oregon and Nebraska have in games outside of their matchup against the ‘Cats. USC’s cornerbacks contest the ball aggressively, and Stone has been known for throwing a lot of 50-50 balls throughout the season. The Trojans look like a likely candidate to pick Stone off a couple times, and continue the Wildcats’ streak of multi-interception losses.
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The bottom line
There are some matchup advantages for the Wildcats in this football game. I expect Lujan and Braun to attack in the run game, and try to put as little pressure as possible on Preston Stone to make big plays.
Unfortunately, on the other end, I think it’s a hard task for anyone to contain the Trojan offense. Maiava, Lane and Lemon have been practically unstoppable this season, and even if Northwestern is able to limit big plays, the Trojans will still find a way to score.
Though I think a well-prepared gameplan keeps the ‘Cats around in the first half, I think USC’s offense runs wild in the final periods, as the Trojans secure a crucial 31-17 victory, keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
