Each of the previous three offseasons provided one marquee free agent around whom the entire free-agent market seemed to revolve. First, it was Aaron Judge. Then, it was Shohei Ohtani. And finally, it was Juan Soto.
With all due respect to Kyle Tucker, there is no free agent quite like that this time around. But what we do have is a deeper group of intriguing players available on the open market.
A group of 46 voters from MLB.com recently weighed in on where they think 13 of these top free agents will sign. Here is a look at the results:
1. Dodgers (50%)
2. Giants (20%)
3. Yankees (13%)
Half of our voters think the No. 1 free agent in this year’s class will end up on the No. 1 team in the land — and the vast majority think his time in Chicago will come to an end after one year. Teoscar Hernández has manned right field for the Dodgers for the past couple of seasons, but the reigning World Series champs could easily move him over to left field — a spot where L.A. didn’t get a whole lot of production last year — and put Tucker at his natural position.
Even though a right hand fracture and a left calf strain impacted his second-half performance last season, Tucker still posted a stellar .266/.377/.464 slash line with 22 homers, 25 steals and a 136 wRC+ through 136 games. The 28-year-old topped 4.0 fWAR for the fifth consecutive season, and his 23.4 fWAR since the start of 2021 ranks 10th in the Majors.
Other teams receiving votes: Cubs, Rays, Astros, Braves, Padres, Phillies
1. Red Sox (43%)
2. Tigers (37%)
3. Cubs (7%)
Bregman opted out of his Red Sox contract, but a plurality of our voters believe he will return to Beantown. Bregman inked a three-year, $120 million contract with Boston last February. However, he admitted that he was “really close” to signing with the Tigers prior to the 2025 season, and many of our voters think Detroit will reel in Bregman this time.
The 31-year-old third baseman was the rock of the 2025 Red Sox offense. Despite missing about six weeks during the middle of the season with a right quad strain, he batted .273 with 18 homers and an .822 OPS over 114 games. Bregman once again displayed solid defense at the hot corner (+3 Outs Above Average) and quickly became a leader inside Boston’s clubhouse.
Other teams receiving votes: Yankees, Astros, Mariners, Phillies, Royals
1. Phillies (67%)
2. Red Sox (13%)
3. Reds (11%)
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said that re-signing Schwarber is one of the team’s priorities this offseason. Many of our voters don’t doubt that. Six other voters believe he will have a reunion with the Red Sox. Schwarber was traded to Boston from the Nationals ahead of the 2021 Trade Deadline and quickly became a fan favorite at Fenway Park. He recorded a .291/.435/.522 slash line with 17 extra-base hits in 41 games with the Red Sox.
That winter, Schwarber signed a four-year, $79 million deal to join Philadelphia. The Reds feel like underdogs in this race, but they do need offensive firepower, coming off a Wild Card berth, and some of our voters may have been banking on the fact that Schwarber grew up a Reds fan in Middletown, Ohio.
Schwarber, who turns 33 in March, will likely land a much more lucrative contract this time around. The National League leader in home runs since the start of 2022 with 187, Schwarber paced the Senior Circuit with 56 long balls and 132 RBIs this past season. He was first in the Majors in hard-hit rate (59.6%), third in barrel rate (20.8%) and was baseball’s fourth-most valuable hitter by Statcast’s run value metric.
Other teams receiving votes: Mets, Giants, Tigers
1. Blue Jays (48%)
2 (tie). Braves (13%)
2 (tie). Tigers (13%)
The Blue Jays had a special season in 2025, making a run all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, which they led in the ninth inning before the Dodgers came back and won their second consecutive title. Coming off that type of year, and given that the face of the franchise, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has already been locked up for the long term, it would stand to reason that Toronto would want to do the same with Bichette.
After all, Bichette grew up with Guerrero in the organization’s farm system and the two formed a dynamic duo in the middle of the Jays’ lineup, each becoming fan favorites. Our voters see the reunion happening, with nearly half of them predicting that Toronto will re-sign the star shortstop, who played second base on a bad left knee during the World Series and hit .348 with a three-run homer in Game 7.
That gutsy performance surely only increased the love Toronto has for Bichette, making a reunion all the more likely as he enters his age-28 campaign with a career slash line of .294/.337/.469.
Other teams receiving votes: Dodgers, Mariners, Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Phillies
1. Mets (52%)
2. Red Sox (22%)
3. Giants (13%)
It’s hard to imagine Alonso in a uniform other than that of the Mets, and a majority of our voters think that it’s in Queens that the slugging first baseman will stay. This is the second straight offseason in which Alonso finds himself on the free agent market. Last year, he re-signed with the Mets on a two-year, $54 million contract with an opt-out after the 2025 season.
Alonso didn’t get the long-term deal he was looking for, perhaps in part because he had what was — by his standards — a subpar season in 2024. That year, he posted an OPS below .800 for the first time in his career (.788) and had the lowest home run output of any full season of his career (34). But upon re-signing with New York, he put together a bounce-back campaign in ’25, belting 38 homers with an .871 OPS.
Originally drafted by the Mets in 2016, Alonso hit a rookie-record 53 home runs in a 2019 NL Rookie of the Year campaign and he’s a five-time All-Star. He hit one of the biggest home runs in franchise history during the 2024 postseason, when he launched a go-ahead three-run shot off then-Brewers closer Devin Williams in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series.
While Alonso did reject a seven-year, $158 million contract extension offer prior to becoming a free agent last year, his reunion with the Mets and all he’s accomplished with the franchise certainly lends weight to the notion that he’ll remain with the only club he’s known.
Other teams receiving votes: Rangers, Yankees, Angels, Padres
1. Yankees (54%)
2. Giants (11%)
3 (tie). Mets (9%)
3 (tie). Tigers (9%)
Bellinger took quite a liking to Yankee Stadium, hitting .302 with 18 homers and a .909 OPS in his home ballpark this past season. His left-handed power and ability to play all three outfield positions as well as first base was a boon for the Yankees, and a majority of our voters think he will keep playing in the Bronx.
He may never reach the heights of his 2019 NL MVP year with the Dodgers, but Bellinger’s first year with the Yanks was arguably his best since then. He belted 29 homers overall to go with 98 RBIs, 13 steals and an .814 OPS. That homer total was Bellinger’s highest since ’17, as was his 4.9 fWAR, which tied for 18th best in MLB.
Bellinger’s career has been a rollercoaster since that MVP campaign. Although he helped the Dodgers win the World Series in 2020, his production plummeted, leading to him being non-tendered following the 2022 season. He was the NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2023 with the Cubs as he hit .307 with 26 dingers and a .881 OPS.
He had more modest numbers in 2024 before signing with New York. One more number worth noting on Bellinger: 13.7%. That was his strikeout rate this past season, a vast improvement from just three years ago, when he had a 27.3% mark with L.A.
Other teams receiving votes: Cubs, Angels, Phillies, D-backs
1. Mariners (46%)
2. Dodgers (28%)
3. Yankees (9%)
The Mariners are facing the prospect of losing first baseman Josh Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suárez in free agency, so they could have a significant amount of interest in Murakami’s big bat. He can man either corner infield position — he played about 75% of his games in Japan at third base. But Murakami’s calling card is his top-notch power.
The 6-foot-2 lefty slugger has hit 246 homers across 892 career games in Nippon Professional Baseball. In 2022, he slugged 56 home runs and won a batting Triple Crown. His 2025 season with the Yakult Swallows was impacted by an oblique injury, but Murakami still crushed 22 dingers in just 56 games and produced an astounding 208 wRC+. He has drawn comps to Matt Olson and Rafael Devers, among others.
Still, once the 25-year-old is posted by his NPB club and made available to all 30 MLB teams — something that’s expected to happen this winter — he should have no shortage of suitors.
Other teams receiving votes: Giants, Padres, Astros, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox
1. Blue Jays (26%)
2 (tie). Astros (20%)
2 (tie). Mets (20%)
Things were going pretty smoothly for Valdez as he entered the month of August — the veteran left-hander owned a 2.62 ERA over 21 starts (134 innings) for the Astros. But the two-time All-Star struggled over the final two months of the 2025 season, posting a 6.05 ERA in 10 starts.
It remains to be seen whether that stumble — and a bizarre incident in which he hit his catcher in the chest with a pitch during a Sept. 2 game — will cost him in free agency, but given his overall track record, Valdez should be a sought-after prize on this year’s starting pitcher market.
Enter the Blue Jays, whom our voters, by a fairly narrow margin over the incumbent Astros and the Mets, think will land Valdez. Toronto is coming off one of the best years in franchise history, coming up just short of its first World Series title in more than three decades. It isn’t at all far-fetched to imagine the Jays making some big moves this offseason to give themselves the best chance possible to get back to the Fall Classic.
Valdez, who will be entering his age-32 campaign in 2026, would add a lefty to the mix, and one who has a high-ground ball rate at that. Even with his struggles toward the end of the regular season, he posted a 59.4% ground ball rate and continued to have one of the most effective fastballs in the game.
Other teams receiving votes: Orioles, Cubs, Cardinals, Angels, Giants, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers
1. Mets (30%)
2. Cubs (24%)
3. Orioles (11%)
A dozen teams received at least one vote regarding where Cease might land in 2026, with the Mets edging out the Cubs. If the North Siders do sign Cease, it would be a full-circle moment for the 29-year-old right-hander who was drafted by the Cubs in the sixth round in 2014. Three years later, he was traded to the crosstown White Sox, with whom he made his big league debut in 2019.
Cease has at times looked like one of the very best pitchers in the sport. At other times, he struggles with his control and run prevention. He was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2022 after logging a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts over 184 innings. He finished fourth for the NL Cy Young Award while with the Padres in 2024.
But in 2023 and ‘25, Cease’s ERA was north of 4.50, and his walk rate hovered around his career mark of 10%. Even when Cease is not at his sharpest, he can find a way to get plenty of strikeouts. Among the 82 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings since the start of 2021, Cease’s 11.3 K/9 rate is the second-best in the bigs, behind only Blake Snell’s 11.8. Cease also threw at least 160 innings in each of those five years. Only he, Gausman and Berríos can lay claim to that.
Other teams receiving votes: Angels, Blue Jays, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, Astros, Padres, Rangers, Tigers
1. Angels (28%)
2. Rangers (15%)
3. Padres (13%)
The contact-oriented, strikeout-averse Arraez is an unorthodox player in modern baseball, and the lack of consensus about his next destination perhaps reflects that. Our voters also see some different teams leading the pack for his services, compared to some of the other free agents in this exercise. While eight teams received multiple votes for Arraez, only the Angels got more than seven. It’s not exactly clear how Arraez would fit into the Halos’ lineup at first base, second base or DH, but after a season in which they struck out nearly 100 more times than any other team, Arraez’s skillset would hold obvious appeal.
The question facing the three-time All-Star as he enters the market is, lack of strikeouts aside, whether he can rediscover the overall offensive success he experienced over the previous six seasons. Arraez did lead the NL in hits (181) for the second straight season in 2025, his first full year in San Diego, but he failed to win his fourth straight batting title, as his average dropped from .314 to .292. Arraez’s average and OBP (.327) were career lows, and he slugged just .392 for the second year in a row.
Other teams receiving votes: Giants, Mariners, Rays, Rockies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers, D-backs, Marlins, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins
1. Mariners (39%)
2. Angels (15%)
3 (tie). Blue Jays (7%)
3 (tie). Royals (7%)
After Suárez’s Trade Deadline return to Seattle, nearly four in 10 MLB.com voters expect him to stick around in the Pacific Northwest. The beloved veteran was a Mariner from 2022-23, then was traded to the D-backs after that second season. However, at this year’s Deadline, Arizona sent him back to Seattle, ahead of the club’s run to Game 7 of the ALCS.
The Mariners were one of only three teams to hit more home runs last season than the Angels, so a trip down the West Coast to Anaheim would be an interesting move for Suárez as well, coming off a 49-homer campaign. His power would fill a much greater need in Kansas City, where the Royals finished just 26th in MLB in that category in 2025.
The question is how eager the Mariners will be to extend their relationship with the 34-year-old this time around, given how his production fell off following last summer’s trade. Suárez launched 36 homers and posted an .897 OPS in 106 games with the D-backs, compared with 13 homers and a .682 OPS in 53 games for the Mariners. Still, this is a player with more home runs since 2018 (261) than all but five other players.
Other teams receiving votes: D-backs, Red Sox, Tigers, Mets, Phillies, Pirates, Athletics, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees
1. Mets (70%)
2 (tie). Dodgers (13%)
2 (tie). Yankees (13%)
Three years ago, the Mets signed Díaz to a five-year, $102 million contract — including an opt-out after 2025 — just before he could reach the open market. Now that Díaz has exercised that opt-out, will he once again stay in Queens? Our voters overwhelmingly answered “yes” to that question, given the lack of a clear successor in the team’s bullpen. However, a handful of voters think Díaz will either hop across town to the Bronx, or across the country to the defending World Series champs.
Just as he did after the 2022 campaign, Díaz is hitting the market at an opportune moment. He made his third All-Star team in 2025, locking down 28 saves and posting a 1.63 ERA, to go with 98 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings of work. It was a significant rebound effort for Díaz, who missed all of the 2023 season due to a knee injury he sustained during the World Baseball Classic, then had a somewhat rocky return in ‘24, with a 3.52 ERA and seven blown saves in 27 chances.
Other teams receiving votes: Orioles, Rangers
1. Phillies (74%)
2. Rangers (13%)
3. Red Sox (4%)
Realmuto has spent seven seasons in Philadelphia, becoming one the key pieces in the team’s recent run of success. So perhaps it’s no surprise that nearly three-quarters of our voters expect Realmuto to stick around as he enters his age-35 season. With Philly gearing up for another shot at a World Series title, it would be hard for the club to part with the respected veteran, especially given the lack of comparable catching options available, either internally or externally.
Realmuto’s bat has declined over the past couple of seasons, with his .700 OPS and 91 OPS+ in 2025 both representing his lowest since he was a rookie with the 2015 Marlins. At the same time, the three-time All-Star remains an integral part of a team led by its starting rotation. Even at 34 this past season, Realmuto led the Majors in starts behind the plate (132) and innings caught (1,151 1/3).
Other teams receiving votes: Angels, Padres, Twins, Yankees
