The 2025-26 offseason has arrived and there will be no shortage of storylines to follow.
Where will consensus top free agent Kyle Tucker end up and what might his deal look like? How will an excellent group of free-agent starting pitchers shape the market? Those are just some of the fascinating stories to follow, but another subplot to monitor is where the next tier of free agents will end up.
In this article, we’ll identify some free agents who could end up producing beyond their expected value in free agency. For the sake of this exercise, only free agents ranked outside of MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand’s top-30 free agent list were considered. Here are seven from this offseason’s class who could outperform expectations.
Brandon Woodruff, RHP
Key stats: 2.19 expected ERA, 83 strikeouts/14 walks in 64 2/3 innings in 2025
Woodruff missed the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery and didn’t debut until July 6 in ‘25. After missing the final few weeks of the regular season and all of the postseason due to a lat strain, Woodruff had just 12 starts in ‘25.
During those dozen starts, however, Woodruff was excellent, posting a 3.20 ERA in 64 2/3 innings with 83 strikeouts and 14 walks. The underlying numbers suggested Woodruff was even better, evidenced by his 2.19 expected ERA (based on quality and quantity of contact), which ranked in the 99th percentile. The right-hander did so with a fastball that sat around 93 mph, compared to 96 mph at his peak.
There’s undeniable risk with Woodruff — he’ll be 33 on Opening Day and only has 23 starts since ‘23 due to injury — but if he is fully healthy in ‘26 and sees his pre-injury velocity return, he could prove to be a frontline starter yet again. There is also a chance that Woodruff stays right where he is, after the Brewers extended him the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer on Thursday. He has until Nov. 18 to decide.
Ryan O’Hearn, 1B
Key stats: 127 wRC+, .350 expected wOBA in 2025
O’Hearn batted sixth as the American League DH at the ‘25 All-Star Game and was one of the prominent players moved at the Deadline (from Baltimore to San Diego), so he’s not exactly an unknown player. With that said, O’Hearn is already viewed as something resembling an under-the-radar free agent, ranking outside of Feinsand’s top-30 list and at No. 27 on Jim Bowden’s free agent list for The Athletic.
O’Hearn had a career year in 2025, making his first All-Star Game while setting career highs in games played (144), OPS (.803), home runs (17), wRC+ (127) and FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (3.0). O’Hearn’s .350 expected wOBA in ‘25 also ranked in the 74th percentile, showing that what he did at the plate was legitimate.
Further boosting his value is O’Hearn had an .832 OPS against left-handers in 109 plate appearances (.642 career OPS against lefties), making him more of an everyday option that can play first base or the outfield. At 32 years old, O’Hearn is something of a late bloomer and could be a real option to hit in the middle of a contender’s lineup.
Can Verlander continue to defy Father Time in his age-43 season next year? If his 2025 performance was any indication, Verlander still might have a few quality seasons left. In 152 innings with the Giants last season, Verlander had a 3.85 ERA and a 3.85 FIP that suggested nothing was flukey about his performance. After a 2024 performance (5.48 ERA, 4.78 FIP) that potentially showed the end was near, Verlander could very well have some quality seasons left in the tank.
Of course, any time a player is approaching his mid-40s, the chance for performance completely cratering is possible. Then again, nothing about Verlander is exactly normal — he’s going to wind up in Cooperstown some day and was a Cy Young Award winner at 39 years old in 2022. Verlander’s fastball velocity remains strong (93.9 mph in 2025) and he continued to miss bats (20.7 percent strikeout rate) at a solid rate for a starter.
Verlander’s days of pure dominance are over, but he could still produce like a league-average starter in 150-plus innings, which most teams would take in a heartbeat. He’ll likely sign a one-year deal at his age, but he could be a solid option for plenty of teams.
Zach Eflin, RHP
Key stats: 3.54 ERA, 3.37 FIP in 59 starts from 2023-24
Had Eflin reached free agency following his 2024 season, he likely would have been one of the best starting pitchers on the market. Alas, Eflin endured one of the worst seasons of his career in ’25, dealing with low back discomfort that limited him to just 71 1/3 innings to go along with a 5.93 ERA. The right-hander saw his strikeout rate dip to 16.2 percent and his expected ERA skyrocket to 4.54.
While we can’t simply erase what happened in 2025, it’s also easy to forget just how good Eflin was from 2023-24. During that time, Eflin boasted a top-20 ERA (3.54) and FIP (3.37) among qualified starters. In each of those years, Eflin started Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, for the Rays in 2023 and Orioles in ‘24. Eflin excelled in that time with elite command (3.5 percent walk rate), a strong strikeout rate and an ability to induce weak contact.
Any team looking to sign Eflin will assuredly look to his production from 2023-24 as reason to believe a bounceback is possible. Eflin, who will turn 32 next April, could return to that form with a clean bill of health.
Yastrzemski has been a reliably solid outfielder for seven straight seasons in the Majors. Since debuting in 2019, Yastrzemski has been worth at least 1.5 WAR in every season and has only dipped below a .700 OPS once (.697 OPS in 2022). Other than posting a .968 OPS and 1.9 WAR in 54 games in the shortened 2020 season, Yastrzemski has been a good bet for a .750-ish OPS and 1.5-2 WAR every year.
No, there’s not much upside for more in his profile, especially at 35 years old. And while Yastrzemski has struggled against lefties in his career (.648 career OPS), he’s on the strong side of a platoon and owns a career .809 OPS against righties. He’s also been a durable big leaguer, appearing in at least 106 games in every full season, including 140-plus games in each of the last two years.
Yastrzemski could be a welcomed addition to any club, including contenders that could use a solid left-handed-hitting outfielder in their lineup.
Tyler Rogers, RHP
Key stats: 374 appearances, 2.71 ERA from 2021-25
Rogers has been one of the best non-closer relievers for the last half-decade. Since 2021, Rogers leads the Majors with 374 appearances, throwing more than 70 innings in each of those seasons, to go along with an excellent 2.71 ERA. Rogers is also coming off his best season in the Majors, as he posted a career-best 1.98 ERA in 77 1/3 innings (81 games) with the Giants and Mets.
Rogers, who turns 35 in December, is truly a one-of-a-kind pitcher in today’s game, a submarine pitcher with an extreme arm angle (his negative 61-degree arm angle since 2020 is by far the lowest in the Majors). Rogers throws an 83 mph sinker and frisbee slider with impeccable precision (2.3 percent walk rate in 2025) and is nearly impossible to barrel baseballs against. The total package is a unique reliever who is a tough matchup for righties and lefties alike.
Willi Castro, INF/OF
Key stats: 107 wRC+, 5.4 WAR from 2023-24
In 368 games with the Twins from 2023 through July 2025, Castro hit .250/.335/.398 with a 107 wRC+ and 6.5 WAR, which included an All-Star selection in 2024. A rough stint with the Cubs following a ‘25 Deadline trade (.485 OPS in 34 games) was an unfortunate end to his final months before free agency, but Castro still looks like a legitimate everyday option that can play all over the field … literally.
In his seven years in the Majors, Castro has appeared at every position except first base and catcher (yes, he’s thrown 4 2/3 innings on the mound). With Castro producing at an above-average offensive clip dating back to 2023, his ability to handle multiple infield and outfield positions makes him a valuable asset to any club. Castro also won’t turn 29 years old until next April, making him one of the younger free agents on the market.
Nick Martinez, RHP
Victor Caratini, C
Raisel Iglesias, RHP
