There were a lot of questions about the Oregon Ducks going into this last week of the season. With their best win of the year coming against the Northwestern Wildcats earlier in the season, many wondered just how good this Oregon team really was. They proved themselves a bit on Saturday afternoon with a gritty win over a tough Iowa Hawkeyes team in a physical game that was played in a cold downpour.
Oregon’s 18-16 win over the Hawkeyes wasn’t enough to move them up in the US LBM Coaches Poll, but it will go a long way in establishing that this team belongs in the mix when it comes to the College Football Playoffs. It also showed that, should the Ducks continue to play their game going forward, they should be sizable favorites in all remaining games on the regular season schedule.
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According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, their win percentage in those coming games, notably the season finale against the Washington Huskies, has increased.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, examining their rosters, schedules, and winning percentages, and ultimately determining where they stand after the season concludes.
In short, it examines Oregon’s 2025 schedule and predicts the percentage of wins the Ducks should achieve. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. While it may not be perfect, it provides a glimpse into how deeper metrics evaluate the team. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say going into the Week 11 game vs. Iowa for Oregon:
Oregon Ducks vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers — Week 12
Aug 28, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (1) runs the ball against the Buffalo Bulls during the first half of the game at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 95.8%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 95.9%
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Analysis: A return home will be nice for Oregon after a taxing trip to Iowa, though it comes on a short week, with some major injury questions when it comes to starters on the offense. While Minnesota is decent this season, the Ducks project as a team that should handle this game with relative ease.
Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans — Week 13
Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.7%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 71.9%
Analysis: USC’s offense has been impressive so far this year, but the Ducks’ defense is among the best in the nation, and they get this game at home. On top of that, the Trojans’ defense is average, at best, and Oregon should be able to find some success offensively here.
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For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies — Week 14
Aug 30, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) escapes a potential sack by Colorado State Rams linebacker Jacob Ellis (44) during the second quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.7%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 76.7%
Analysis: This was shaping up to be a potential playoff game between Oregon and Washington, with the winner clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff, but the Huskies fell to the Wisconsin Badgers on the road this past week, effectively ending any chance of high stakes in this matchup. While it will still be a tough road game in Seattle, and a fun renewal of the rivalry, Washington has shown some real weaknesses over the past seven days.
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For more Washington news and analysis, check out UW Huskies Wire!
Overall Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field as the Oregon Ducks host the Montana State Bobcats on Aug. 30, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
Percent Chance to Win Out: 44.2%
Previous FPI %: 29.8%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 3.6%
Previous FPI %: 3.0%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 86.4%
Previous FPI %: 76.9%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 18.1%
Previous FPI %: 16.4%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 7.9%
Previous FPI %: 7.9%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks’ win probability increases vs. Washington, per ESPN FPI
