LAS VEGAS – The Orioles have done a masterful job in recent years of building a young core, drafting and developing a number of everyday players to build around.
Will this be the offseason that Baltimore goes all-in?
Industry sources believe the Orioles will be aggressive in free agency as they look to return to the postseason following a disappointing 75-win season and last-place finish in the American League East.
“They know they need to take advantage of this window,” one source said. “Gunnar [Henderson] is in his first year of arbitration and [Jackson] Holliday, [Colton] Cowser and [Jordan] Westburg aren’t even arb-eligible yet. At some point, all of these guys are going to get expensive.”
The Orioles made a big move prior to the 2024 season with their trade for Corbin Burnes, who pitched for Baltimore for one season before signing with the Diamondbacks as a free agent. Baltimore didn’t replace Burnes with another frontline starter, a decision that hurt them during this past season.
Baltimore’s 4.65 rotation ERA ranked 13th in the AL, while only two starters threw as many as 115 innings (Dean Kremer 171 2/3, Tomoyuki Sugano 157). Grayson Rodriguez missed the entire season with elbow and lat injuries, undergoing debridement surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow in August.
Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers are currently slotted as the top two starters, while Rodriguez, Kremer and Tyler Wells would likely fill out the rotation based on the current roster. Adding a No. 1 starter would seem to be a priority for the Orioles, who face the loss of Sugano and Zach Eflin to free agency.
Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez, Michael King and Framber Valdez are among the top starting pitchers available this offseason. During Mike Elias’ seven-year tenure as the head of baseball operations, the Orioles have signed only one free agent to a multi-year contract: outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who inked a three-year, $49.5 million deal last offseason.
To add one of the top starters, Elias will have to go outside of what has been his comfort zone, though there may be controllable trade candidates – Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, MacKenzie Gore and Pablo López are under control through 2027, while Mitch Keller is signed through 2028 – who might be available if the Orioles are willing to move some of their young talent.
The offense will also need to improve next season, as the Orioles ranked 11th in the AL in runs scored and OPS (.699). They’ll be counting on improvement from nearly every player on the roster, though some believe Baltimore could look to add a big free-agent bat such as Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger or Pete Alonso.
“The AL East may be the most competitive division in the game,” a source said. “The Yankees and Red Sox are going to do what they do, and the Blue Jays may now be the biggest threat of the whole group. Then you have the Rays, who always find a way to be competitive. If [the Orioles] want to compete, they need to make some big moves this winter.”
Kyle Tucker is widely considered to be the best free agent available this offseason, and while Cody Bellinger is fairly high on most lists of available players, the perceived gap between their value is relatively wide.
“What does Tucker do so much better than Bellinger?” one industry source said. “Their numbers aren’t that different, and Bellinger plays multiple positions – and plays them well. Is Tucker that much better?”
It’s an interesting question. Last season, Tucker slashed .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs, 25 stolen bases and a 4.5 fWAR in 136 games. Bellinger slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 homers, 98 RBIs, 13 steals and a 4.9 fWAR in 152 games.
Tucker has the age advantage – he’s 18 months younger than Bellinger – but one theory could explain another reason why Tucker has such a perceived edge in his free agency: although their highs over the past five seasons have been similar, Bellinger’s lows have been much lower, something that may stick in the heads of executives considering adding a big outfielder this winter.
Bellinger’s best season came in 2019 with the Dodgers, when he won the National League MVP Award with 47 homers, 115 RBIs, a 1.035 OPS and 7.8 fWAR. But he posted fWARs of -1.0 in 2021, 1.5 in 2022 and 2.1 in 2024, while his 2023 (4.4) and 2025 (4.9) seasons were far better.
Tucker has never had a season like Bellinger’s MVP year, but he’s had an fWAR between 4.2 and 4.9 in each of the past five seasons, giving some clubs a belief that they know what they’re getting from him moving forward.
“They’re both going to do very well,” one executive said. “The teams that miss out on Tucker may look at Bellinger as a Plan B, but if he can level out and be the guy he was with the Yankees this year, the difference between them may not be so drastic.”
Imai, 27, posted a 1.92 ERA in 163 2/3 innings in 2025, giving him a 2.18 ERA over the past four seasons. The hard-throwing right-hander has been projected by some talent evaluators as a mid-rotation arm, though others believe he has the upside to be a No. 2 starter.
“We’ve seen guys like [Kodai] Senga and [Shota] Imanaga have success here, and he’s probably close to that level,” one scout said. “He’s not [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto, but he’s definitely going to help someone’s rotation.”
