No. 7 Oregon vs. Minnesota prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The No. 7 Oregon Ducks (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) will host the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) Friday night in a game with serious postseason ramifications for both schools.

Oregon is currently firmly in the college football playoff conversation. They need to keep winning, though, to remain in that mix. A loss to Minnesota, a 25-point underdog, would prove lethal to those postseason aspirations. For their part, the Golden Gophers are looking to play spoiler while securing their sixth win of the season and in the process bowl eligibility.

The Golden Gophers were off last week. Their last game was November 1. Drake Lindsey scored in Overtime to propel Minnesota to a 23-20 win over the Spartans of Michigan State. Oregon was in action this past weekend and scratched out an 18-16 win. Atticus Sappington kicked a 39-yard field goal with seconds remaining to lift the Ducks to their eighth win of the season.

Lets take a deeper dive into each of these schools on both sides of the ball, players to watch, and see where the numbers lead us.

Game Details and How to watch Minnesota at Oregon

Date: Friday, November 14, 2025

Game Odds for Minnesota at Oregon

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1,300), Oregon Ducks (-2,800)
Spread: Oregon -25.5 (-115)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Oregon Ducks

Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 8-1 (5-1)
Offense Ranking: 12
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 18

Oregon has lived up to its billing as a national contender, ranking 3rd in SP+ with an 8–1 record and a balanced profile that features the nation’s No. 12 offense and No. 2 defense. The Ducks are combining explosive playmaking (11.3% of plays gaining 20+ yards = 1st) with stifling defense (4.03 yards allowed per play, 3rd) while outscoring opponents by nearly 25 points per game. Dan Lanning’s team has thrived on efficiency, posting a 49.9% offensive success rate while forcing three‑and‑outs on nearly 47% of opposing drives, both Top 20 marks. Oregon’s blend of trench dominance (6.8 yards per rush, 2nd) and defensive precision (33.1% opponent passing success, 10th) has them firmly in the College Football Playoff mix heading into a November stretch that includes pivotal contests against USC and Washington.

The Oregon Ducks Offense

Oregon’s offense is a multifaceted juggernaut, ranking 12th in SP+ and Top 10 in EPA/play (7th) thanks to an elite rushing attack and hyper-efficient passing game. The Ducks average 6.8 yards per rush (2nd nationally) and boast a 53.7% rushing success rate (3rd), pairing explosive ground production with a 70.1% completion rate (8th) and 11.1 adjusted yards per attempt (14th) through the air. They lead the country in plays gaining 20+ yards (11.3%), while also ranking Top 10 in yards per play (7.28) and points per drive (3.32). Oregon’s offensive line has quietly been respectable, allowing pressure on just 2.6% of dropbacks (67th) and ranking 8th in havoc rate allowed, enabling the Ducks to convert 47.7% of third downs and 66.7% of fourth downs.

Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: QB Dante Moore

Dante Moore has been a steady hand under center for Oregon, completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,884 yards and a 19-5 TD-INT ratio over nine starts. While his raw passing stats shine with 11.9 yards per completion and a strong 9.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), his 45.9% success rate shows that much of the damage comes from chunk plays rather than sustained efficiency. He’s protected the football well and absorbed pressure with poise, taking a sack on just 3.9% of dropbacks and 14.3% of pressures. Moore has also added value on the ground with 240 rushing yards at 6.86 YPC, though a 27.3% rate of runs for no gain or loss and just 0.05 missed tackles forced per rush suggest limited elusiveness when scrambling.

The Oregon Ducks Defense

Oregon’s defense has emerged as one of the most complete units in the country, ranking 2nd in SP+ while allowing just 4.03 yards per play (3rd) and 1.27 points per drive (9th). The Ducks are dominant in both efficiency and explosiveness prevention, holding opponents to a 36.3% success rate (20th) and a national-best 2.8% rate of plays gaining 20+ yards. Their pass defense is suffocating, with opposing QBs completing just 49.5% of passes (1st) and averaging 4.6 yards per dropback (3rd), fueled by a Top 5 havoc rate from linebackers and elite coverage metrics in man. Oregon’s defense is opportunistic and disciplined, ranking Top 25 in expected turnover margin, 14th in 3rd-down defense (31.1%), and showing the ability to clamp down in the red zone despite an inflated red zone TD rate of 75%.

Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Teitum Tuioti

Teitum Tuioti has emerged as a primary force of havoc for Oregon, filling the stat sheet with 41 tackles, 12 havoc plays, 9.0 TFLs, and 4.5 sacks through nine games. His blend of burst and technique has yielded a 12.2% pressure rate on 147 pass-rush snaps, with 17 first pressures and a forced fumble highlighting his ability to finish plays. Tuioti’s 100% tackle rate and 12 run stops underscore his reliability as both a pass rusher and edge setter, making him one of the Ducks’ most consistent defenders. His production has complemented Matayo Uiagalelei perfectly, giving Oregon one of the Big Ten’s most dangerous pass-rush tandems.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Head Coach: PJ Fleck
2025 Record: 6-3 (4-2)
Offense Ranking: 84
Defense Ranking: 29
Strength of Schedule: 28

Minnesota has grinded its way to a 6-3 record despite posting just 4.1 second-order wins, with a sluggish offense ranked 84th in SP+ and a defense doing most of the heavy lifting at 29th nationally. The Gophers’ plodding pace (132nd in adjusted tempo) and 130th-ranked explosive play rate underscore a risk-averse, grind-it-out approach that has produced one of the lowest yards-per-play marks in the Power Four (5.09, 108th). Defensively, their elite 10.6% sack rate (1st nationally) and top-10 havoc rate have helped cover for a bottom-tier run defense that ranks 83rd in success rate and 120th in YAC allowed. Despite a manageable remaining schedule, Minnesota’s -1.9 second-order win differential and 124th-ranked spread performance (22.2% cover rate) suggest that regression may be imminent.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers Offense

Minnesota’s offense has struggled mightily in 2025, ranking 84th in SP+ and 108th in yards per play (5.09) while operating at one of the slowest tempos in the country (132nd in adjusted pace). The Gophers are dead last nationally in explosive play rate, generating 20+ yard gains on just 4.3% of snaps, and rank 122nd in yards per successful play (11.2), making it nearly impossible to flip field position with chunk gains. Their rushing attack has been inefficient (121st in YPC, 124th in yards before contact), while the passing game leans heavily on checkdowns and backfield throws—25% of completions go to running backs (3rd nationally), and they rank 121st in completions of 20+ yards. Red zone struggles (102nd in red zone TD rate) and a brutal 30% fourth-down conversion rate (129th) have further stifled scoring opportunities for a unit that ranks just 97th in points per drive.

Minnesota Player to Watch on Offense: QB Drake Lindsey

Drake Lindsey has completed 62.2% of his passes for 1,743 yards with a 10-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio through 9 starts, posting a modest 6.3 adjusted net yards per attempt and a Total QBR of 58.5. While his raw efficiency metrics are pedestrian—ranking poorly in success rate (41.8%) and yards per dropback (5.7)—he’s averaging a decent 10.2 yards per completion. Lindsey is most effective in the short (79.1% comp, 5.9 YPA) passing game, while struggling mightily on deep throws completing just 20.6% with 3 interceptions. As a rusher, Lindsey has added four touchdowns but offers little else accruing just 1.2 yards per carry with a negative rushing EPA.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers Defense

Minnesota’s defense has been the backbone of the team ranking 29th in SP+ thanks to an elite pass rush and aggressive, disruptive secondary play. The Gophers lead the nation in sack rate (10.6%) and rank 4th overall in havoc rate, with Top 15 marks from both the defensive line and defensive backs. Despite their aggressive style, the Gophers limit explosive plays well (30th in 20+ yard plays allowed) and rank Top 40 in EPA/play and yards per drive. Their Achilles’ heel has been tackling (105th), as they rank 120th in yards allowed after contact which has been exploited by more physical rushing attacks.

Minnesota Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Anthony Smith

Anthony Smith is Minnesota’s most disruptive defender and tone setter, posting 8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, and 12 total havoc plays through nine games. The hulking defensive end leads the team in pressures (28) on 251 pass rush snaps, maintaining an 11.2% pressure rate and creating five of Minnesota’s sacks with a 2.91-second average time to first pressure. His ability to finish plays has been elite, ranking first on the team in both sacks and TFLs, while also adding six run stops and generating constant backfield penetration. Smith’s blend of explosiveness and power off the edge has made him the focal point of the Gophers’ defensive front and a key reason they rank among the nation’s leaders in sack rate.

Minnesota and Oregon team stats, betting trends

Minnesota is 2-6-1 ATS this season
Oregon is 5-4 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 4 of Minnesota’s 9 games (4-4-1)
The OVER has cashed in 4 of Oregon’s 9 games (4-5)

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Drake Lindsey to go Over 0.5 Interceptions (-167)

As outlined above, the Minnesota passing game has been a portrait of inefficiency under first-year starter Drake Lindsey. In the three games Minnesota lost, he has thrown four interceptions, with two more coming against Purdue and Buffalo to bring his season total to a troubling six INTs. I expect Oregon to get a lead and force Minnesota to throw, which then should allow the Ducks’ lockdown secondary that ranks 9th nationally with a 4.2% interception rate to be aggressive jumping passing lanes. I am taking Drake Lindsey to go Over 0.5 Interceptions (-167) despite the elevated juice.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Minnesota and Oregon

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Minnesota Golden Gophers at +25.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 44.5.

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