According to ESPN BET, Thunder point guard Ajay Mitchell (+750
) has the second-shortest odds to win Sixth Man of the Year, behind the Heat’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+425) and ahead of Quentin Grimes (+1000) of the Knicks. Mitchell was not on the radar when the season began, but his stellar play in the first month of the season has him among the early-season favorites for the award.
Should he be?
And is there value in betting Mitchell for Sixth Man of the Year?
Let’s explore.
Through his first 12 games, Mitchell has established himself as a plus-scorer (17.2 PPG), a solid all-around contributor (3.9 RPG, 3.9 APG) and a strong 3-and-D threat (1.8 SPG, 1.3 3PG) in 28.3 MPG, mainly off the bench. He moved into the starting lineup last week with Aaron Wiggins joining Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Nikola Topic and Kenrich Williams on the injured list, and in his first four starts he upped his numbers to 19.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.8 APG, 2.0 SPG and 1.5 3PG in 31.3 MPG.
Using the ESPN Fantasy Basketball scoring system as a one-number metric of player production, Mitchell is currently averaging 33.8 fantasy PPG on the season. That is better than last season’s Sixth Man of the Year, Payton Pritchard, who averaged 29.7 FPPG. In fact, if you go back over the last decade of Sixth Man of the Year winners, only Lou Williams in 2018 (34.5) had a higher fantasy scoring average than Mitchell’s 33.8. So, historically speaking, Mitchell is clearly producing enough to be worthy of the award if he can maintain his pace for the season.
But that leads to the first of two main questions: Will he maintain this pace?
Part of the reason Mitchell has had such a large role this season is because of the plethora of injuries to the Thunder’s perimeter players. Williams, in particular, is a young All-Star who, when he returns, will eat up a large chunk of minutes and production. He is expected to return sometime this month. Dort is the other starting wing, and both Wiggins and Williams typically play significant minutes off the bench.
When you add in the Thunder’s healthy perimeter players, including MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, NBA steals leader Cason Wallace, two-time All-Defensive Team selection Alex Caruso and 3-point marksman Isaiah Joe, it gets very difficult to see how Mitchell will continue to get anywhere near the minutes and role he’d need to continue his current pace once everyone is healthy.
The other main question of interest is: Are there are any other Sixth Man candidates also producing at or near the level of Mitchell’s current pace?
The obvious place to look is Jaquez — the frontrunner according to ESPN BET — who is averaging 17.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 5.2 APG, which contribute to his 38.0 FPPG.
Jaquez is also part of a deep perimeter rotation for the Heat, but right now only Tyler Herro is expected to return to the rotation after an injury absence, and he may not return until the end of 2025. Plus, Jaquez has the size to play some power forward, in addition to shooting guard and small forward, which should help him maintain his minutes and role even once Herro is back.
Bottom line: Mitchell is worth a flyer, but Jaquez is the better bet
Mitchell (+750) is currently playing well enough to win the Sixth Man of the Year Award if he can maintain over the course of the season. But there are questions as to whether his minutes and role will remain as large once the Thunder get healthy, which seems to be on the horizon. And there are other candidates for the award, led by current frontrunner Jaquez, that are producing more in the short term and/or also have less competition for minutes on their current teams.
As such, I would say there is some value in betting Mitchell to win the award at current odds, but there is more value in betting on Jaquez. The NBA season is very long and injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, so this story could change many times over the next several months. While I might take some flyers on Mitchell, at present I would be more likely to bet on Jaquez.
