Carolina survived its first game without Seth Trimble, pulling away from a feisty Radford team for an 89-74 win. There were some bumpy moments in the game; Jarin Stevenson briefly left to get checked for an injury while Caleb Wilson spent parts of the game in foul trouble. The Heels ran cold from long range in the first before getting hot in the second frame. All-in-all, it was a game UNC won comfortably after facing some adversity.
The Heels next opponent should give Hubert Davis a chance to further tinker with his Trimble-less lineups. NCCU will be one of the weakest teams the Heels play this year. The Eagles enter this matchup with a 1-3 record; their lone win is against Division II Bluefield State. They’ve lost every game against a Division 1 opponent by at least 19 points and allowed a whopping 114 points in their season opener against N.C. State. NCCU is ranked as the 347th best team out of 365 teams according to KenPom (for reference, the Central Arkansas team the Heels beat in their season opener is ranked 349th). Obviously, you never want to overlook any opponent; but if this game is close early in the second half something has gone seriously wrong for the Heels. Betting lines haven’t been released as of the time of this article being written, but KenPom has UNC as a 31-point favorite.
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The Eagles are off to a rough start to the season, but you can’t blame NCCU guard Gage Lattimore for it. Lattimore, a sophomore, transferred from Division II school Seton Hill University after a respectable freshman season. He’s been a revelation for the team; he’s averaged 19.3 points per game while shooting a whopping 52.3% from long range in games against pretty good competition (two ACC squads and Appalachian State). His overall field goal percentage only sits at 36.6%, so he’s due for some regression in one direction or the other. Still, he dropped 38 points in NCCU’s game against Bluefield State, and is by and large the Eagles’ most dangerous weapon on offense. It seems like every year we see a couple players we’ve barely heard of go nuts from long range in the Dean Dome; he’s as good a candidate as any for this to happen.
Otherwise, there’s just not much else NCCU does well enough that could lead to an upset. They are a small team, ranking near the bottom of the country in KenPom’s Average Height rankings; this could spell trouble against a much bigger UNC team. The tallest starting player for Eagles is forward Khouri Carvey, who stands at 6’9”. Carolina will start three taller players and should dominate the boards. One of NCCU’s goals this game will probably be to try and get their guard Dionte Johnson on track. Johnson started the year as a second team selection for the MEAC Preseason All-Conference team but has struggled thus far, averaging just six points, 3.3 rebounds and four assists a game. No one likes to play for moral victories, but if NCCU manages to keep this semi-competitive and get Johnson on track I suspect they will be happy.
It’s likely that UNC will use this game as a way of testing out some different lineups, particularly in the wake of Trimble’s injury. If the Heels run up a huge lead early, Davis should opt to give the second and third string players a lot of burn. It’d be good to see James Brown, Derek Dixon, Jaydon Young, and Isaiah Denis get some extended minutes; the experience could come in handy down the road if the Heels suffer additional injuries or foul trouble. Davis hasn’t been shy about going deep in his bench thus far, so there’s no reason to think he won’t here. This also feels like the game that Luka Bogavac gets comfortable and finds his stroke. Bogavac seemed to find his footing in the second half of the Radford game and will look to build his confidence further against the Eagles.
The schedule gets decidedly tougher after this game. Navy and St. Bonaventure are solid teams, and then the Heels will face two straight ranked programs and a resurgent Georgetown team. The Heels should get a comfortable win while working out the remaining kinks that go with building a new team if they approach this game with the same intensity they’ve shown so far this year.
