NBA intel: Execs, scouts on sinking Mavs, soaring Lakers and Spurs

There weren’t many people, inside the NBA or outside of it, believing the arguments Nico Harrison made in February as to why he orchestrated one of the most shocking deals in league history in sending Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers.

There also weren’t many people believing Harrison should have remained as Mavs general manager as Dallas saw its ugly end to last season carry over into this one, including “Fire Nico!” chants ringing out at home during Mavericks free throws in a one possession game Monday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.

So, in that spirit, we decided to ask league executives and scouts whether they’re believing in some of the most impactful early-season trends across the NBA, beginning with the crater that is the Mavericks franchise before moving on to hot starts for the Lakers and San Antonio Spurs, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder‘s chances at 70 wins and what’s next for the suddenly deep Rookie of the Year race.

Jump to intel:
Will sliding Mavs have to trade AD?
Will Magic figure out their offense?
Will Lakers and Spurs stay this hot?
Will Clippers keep looking this old?
Will Thunder capture 70-plus wins?
Will the ROY race stay wide open?

Do you believe Dallas will remain this bad?

Tim Bontemps: In conversations with sources around the NBA this week in the wake of Harrison’s firing, there is a near universal belief that the Mavericks cannot remain as bad as their 3-9 record and minus-6.5 point differential suggests. Does that mean league insiders are projecting a playoff run?

No.

“I still think they could be good if everyone is healthy,” a Western Conference executive told ESPN. “But you can’t bet on that.”

Even if healthy — Dallas is far from it now, with Anthony Davis playing just five games and Kyrie Irving sidelined after an ACL tear in March — the flaws within the roster remain. D’Angelo Russell, the one proven point guard on the active roster, has been completely marginalized by coach Jason Kidd in favor of Brandon Williams, who is on a partially guaranteed minimum deal.

And while Williams has shown flashes — he had 17 points and nine assists in Wednesday’s loss to the Phoenix Suns — Dallas’ lack of ballhandling and the imbalances across its roster are impossible to ignore.

“Until they have a feasible point guard, they’re going to flounder,” a West scout said.

With the Mavericks being the biggest topic around the league this week, the discussion quickly shifted to the question looming over whomever is tapped to replace Harrison as the lead executive: What does the future hold for Davis and Irving less than three months until the February trade deadline?

The belief, from sources I spoke to, is that the Mavs moving on from at least Davis, if not both stars, was the optimal strategy. Those moves would help maximize the 2026 first-round pick in a loaded 2026 draft class — the only selection Dallas controls the rest of this decade — to reposition the franchise around 2025 No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg.

“Absolutely,” an Eastern Conference executive said when asked whether trading the two veteran stars was the right path for Dallas.

Brian Windhorst: Honestly, discussions with league executives this week surprisingly haven’t centered around whether the Mavericks should trade Davis — there seems to be a consensus that it is probably the correct strategy despite being another painful development to sell to the fan base. A team built around Irving and Davis has teeth, and it’s not unreasonable to want to at least see the full roster in action; with Irving’s rehab going well, it should be on the table.

But no, the discussions were whether the Mavs could get appropriate value when trading Davis.

“I just looked it up so I could say this to my owner if he asks me about it, AD is turning 33 in March and he’s going to be in position next summer where he’ll probably want a contract extension that would cost $70 million per year when he’d be 37,” one general manager said.

“He’s a great player, full stop. But when you consider a player at his age with his injury history, you’d also be trading for the stress of that extension. That plays into it.”

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Referencing Davis’ injury history is tiresome. When he’s healthy, he’s a playoff series-changing player at both ends of the court. The Lakers’ acquisition of him in 2019 ahead of their title run in the bubble changed the balance of power in the league. If the Mavericks come to the conclusion they need to readjust their timeline around Flagg — for now that is an if despite what the strategy wings of opposing front offices might forecast — there is the potential he could change the balance of power once again.

But the takeaway from conversations this week is whether Dallas will be able to get the kind of offers that make trading him a no-brainer.

“There’s one thing I can say with absolute certainty,” a veteran executive said. “If Dallas decides to trade AD, they won’t get the same return the Lakers got for him.”

No kidding.

Bontemps: One underappreciated aspect of moving on from Davis and Irving, however, is to get Dallas out of the luxury tax.

The Mavericks owe about $32 million in taxes with their current roster, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, and are about $16 million over the luxury tax threshold this season. For a team headed nowhere, it’s extremely hard to justify those expenses.

Moving on from their two stars by the deadline would allow Dallas to potentially duck the tax, reset its timeline and acquire future picks and players to restock an older roster with youth alongside their rookie sensation.

Do you believe Orlando has figured out its offense?

Windhorst: The Magic have won five of the past seven games with their offense on a heater, ranking in the top 10 in the league in that window. (Although, leading scorer Paolo Banchero‘s day-to-day designation after suffering a groin injury could cause a correction if the star is forced to miss extended time.)

Orlando ranked dead last in pace last season, but assistant coach Joe Prunty, hired in a front office-led staff shake-up in the offseason, was brought in to rev up those numbers. The Magic now rank in the middle of the pack in pace, and scouts report there’s significantly fewer plays being called by coach Jamahl Mosley, encouraging a quicker read-and-react system.

Having said that…

“Sometimes when they struggle on offense they hang their heads and slow down,” an East coach said. “I’ve seen it before — it’s a product of a team that doesn’t believe in itself offensively yet.”

Bontemps: After beating the New York Knicks on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, the Magic are back to .500 on the season and up to 18th in the NBA in offense. That ranking doesn’t seem all that great, but consider this absolutely unbelievable stat:

The last time the Magic didn’t finish the season as a bottom-10 offense was all the way back in 2011-12, when Dwight Howard was still playing with the Magic and Stan Van Gundy was coaching.

That infamous record was supposed to be left in the dust this season after Orlando landed Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in a blockbuster trade this offseason. Instead, the Magic still look stuck in the mud at that end of the floor.

“They shouldn’t be this bad,” a West scout said. “But I don’t see any reason to think otherwise.”

The ongoing offensive struggles have put a spotlight on Mosley, who has repeatedly shown an ability to craft an elite defensive unit with this squad, and Banchero, who continues to put up impressive individual numbers that have yet to translate into overall team offensive success.

“It’s got to get a little better, but the pieces aren’t changing,” a West executive said. “Bane will settle in eventually. But you still have a ball-dominant, iso star in Paolo that doesn’t scream ball movement, player movement and getting open shots.

“It hasn’t been pretty at all.”

Do you believe the Spurs and Lakers are top-four seeds in the West?

Bontemps: Reactions to this question were all over the map, but not because of the individual merits of the two West contenders. San Antonio and Los Angeles were praised for their early season play, but while plenty of league insiders bought into the idea of the Spurs and Lakers finishing in the West’s top four, plenty of doubts centered around the elite competition standing in their way.

“Oklahoma City, Houston and Denver are really good,” a West executive said. “You only have one spot left, and you haven’t accounted for either of them, or Minnesota.”

Another West executive rattled off those six teams and added that, while they weren’t convinced the Lakers or Spurs will remain in the top four, it was clear that both had surpassed the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors in the race to stay above the play-in line (top six) out West.

The general belief was that of the two teams, the Lakers have more staying power. The eventual return of LeBron James will only add to their chances along with the incandescent play by Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Opinions were mixed when it came to the Spurs’ outlook.

“I’ll take the Spurs, because Wemby is just that good,” an East scout said.

“I’d bet on the Spurs falling off,” a West scout said. “I’d be shocked if Victor plays 82 games. His body just isn’t built for that.”

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Windhorst: James nearing a return is a pretty big factor. He was second-team All-NBA last season, after all, and he has begun practicing with the Lakers’ G League team. The ceiling absolutely can be raised … maybe.

“Don’t ask me about the Lakers until I can see LeBron play and see him move and how he looks,” one East executive said. “He isn’t just dealing with the sciatica, he hurt his knee at the end of last season, and it surely affected his training routine. He’s never started a season coming off injuries like this before.”

“They are bottom 10 in defensive rating and bottom 10 in net rating as I’m looking at it right now and they make the third-fewest 3s in the NBA,” one scout said. “Those are not good fundamentals.”

This, however, can be said: A team with Doncic, James and Reaves can probably beat any team on any night. It is dangerous. But can it beat anyone four times in a playoff series? Let’s wait and see, but there is reason for optimism.

Unless you’re comparing them to OKC.

Do you believe the Clippers will continue looking this old?

Windhorst: The Clippers picked the wrong time to have the oldest roster in NBA history. The league is playing super fast in the early going. Last year, 12 teams averaged 100-plus possessions. Now, that number is 25, perhaps an outgrowth of copycats to the speedy Indiana Pacers after last season’s unexpected run to the Finals.

The NBA is trending toward speed, not just in transition but within half-court sets, too. The Clippers, dead last in pace and fast-break points, simply can’t keep up.

“They move so slowly, they can’t recover when they turn the ball over or give up a quick transition,” one advance scout said.

The Clippers have been a shell of last season’s defensive juggernaut that ranked in the top three in the league. They are also dealing with the fallout of trading guard Norman Powell to the Miami Heat, a void left on the floor and in the locker room, after choosing to not offer him a lucrative contract extension.

In the wake of Bradley Beal‘s season-ending hip injury and the indicators of their collective age being used against them, coach Tyronn Lue announced this week that he would focus on playing the handful of younger role players such as Cam Christie, Kobe Sanders and Jordan Miller.

The subtext is this: The Clippers are not getting much production from Brook Lopez, Nicolas Batum or Bogdan Bogdanovic and Chris Paul is totally out of the rotation for the first time in his career. Those four players’ average age is 37 — it is showing, and all at the same time.

“Teams don’t start playing a bunch of young players all at once and think it’s going to lead them to winning,” a rival executive said. “But in this case maybe it will help them.”

Bontemps: Only one question (more on that below) was met with a more universal and immediate reaction: Less than a month into the season, the outlook is dim for the Clippers.

“They are cooked,” an East executive said of L.A.’s chances this season after a 3-8 start.

Losing Beal for the season didn’t help matters, but that is far from the only problem plaguing the franchise.

“Unless you can show me where the fountain of youth is, I don’t see [a path back],” a West scout said. “Kawhi [Leonard] has looked good when he’s played. But you can’t rely on him.”

Windhorst: And the Leonard situation seems to be worsening. Team president Lawrence Frank revealed on Wednesday that Leonard hasn’t just been out with an ankle sprain but also a “significant” foot sprain and inflammation.

A lot of the excitement around the Clippers coming into the season was an outgrowth of how healthy Leonard looked at the end of last season and in training camp. Unfortunately, Leonard is already dealing with an extended absence, and the Clippers are sinking without him. The Clippers now leave on a seven-game road trip. (We remind readers that the Thunder own the Clippers’ first-round pick in June’s draft.)

Do you believe the Thunder will win 70-plus games?

Bontemps: The only question that received a more definitive answer than the Clippers’ outlook? The Thunder’s. It comes on the heels of OKC demolishing the Warriors and Lakers on back-to-back nights this week while missing, among others, Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort.

“They might win 80 [games],” a West scout said.

Perhaps that goal is a bit too lofty, but can the Thunder, after winning 68 last season en route to the title, become the third team in NBA history to reach 70 wins?

“The only question,” an East scout said, “is if they want to.”

The former point sparked the biggest conversation among league insiders. There’s little doubt the Thunder, who are outscoring teams by what would be a record-shattering point differential of plus-15.6 points per 100 possessions, are capable of joining the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72 wins) and 2015-16 Warriors (73).

What’s unclear is whether they’ll truly pursue that mark if it comes within striking distance late in the season.

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Windhorst: The Thunder are 80-15 since the start of the 2024-25 season. That’s an 84% winning percentage. To win 70 games in the NBA, you need to win 85% of your games. Beyond this little math lesson, the point is this: The Thunder have been playing like a 70-win team for a long time.

“They have the depth that they could win 70 games even if they don’t want to,” an East scout said. “Their second stringers would start in most places. Their third stringers would be in the rotation most places.”

Wednesday night after slaying the Lakers, All-NBA wing Jalen Williams poked his head into ESPN’s Malika Andrews’ walk-off interview with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and jokingly reminded everyone that he was still in the NBA since he hasn’t yet been on the court this season.

It was a funny moment but to the rest of the league, it was no laughing matter.

Do you believe the Rookie of the Year race will remain wide open?

Bontemps: Flagg — the massive preseason favorite to win the award — is off to what is actually a strong start to his rookie campaign amid the misery surrounding the Mavericks. He’s in the top five among all rookies in scoring, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, all while not even turning 19 for another few weeks and playing out of position at point guard on a clunky roster.

That’s why one East executive shot down the notion this race is wide open. “Cooper will win it going away. This class is great, but Cooper will show who he is as the season goes on,” they said.

That, however, was the minority opinion when talking with league insiders. The wider belief is while the faith in Flagg hasn’t diminished, some of the superlative performances from rookies this year — including the three players taken after him, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel, plus Cedric Coward at No. 11 — will make it an interesting race to follow.

“Cooper has been good, but both the team and he have struggled more than expected,” a West scout said. “And, on top of that, it’s a loaded class.”

Windhorst: Knueppel has definitely entered the race after a very strong start. He’s shooting almost 40% on 3s and has immediately shown he’s a cornerstone in Charlotte even as the Hornets sink amid another ankle injury for star guard LaMelo Ball.

But historically, players who are in Flagg’s situation — a No. 1 pick at the centerpiece of his team — have a great chance to win. Most top awards are based on team performance, but that isn’t always the case with Rookie of the Year. There is an expectation that the best rookies are often on bad teams, even if the Dallas situation was not seen that way to start the season.

The other contenders mostly still play a role, which is natural as a rookie, even if they are excelling in their role such as Coward has in Memphis. Flagg will have his hands on the ball on almost every possession, and he’s going to rack up defensive numbers and highlights.

“If Flagg stays healthy, he should win it because he’s the best player with the biggest responsibilities,” a West executive said.

“But you media guys are known to screw things up, so I won’t guarantee it.”