Through thirteen games, the Boston Celtics are sitting at 6-7 and 11th in the Eastern Conference — nothing special which was too be expect when you lose your best player for most of the season and your top three centers from last season’s roster leave for nothing in return.
However, when you look under the hood, the Celtics may be better than their record leads us to believe.
The Celtics are 8th (4th in the Eastern Conference) in net rating for the season per NBA.com. Cleaning the Glass filters out ‘garbage time’ and they have the Celtics at 11th in net rating (6th in the East), at +4.1 points per 100 possessions, less than NBA.com but still the markings of a good basketball team.
Cleaning the Glass also tracks a teams expected wins and what the difference is between that number and how many wins you have. This is tracked based on net rating and how many games a team has played. The Celtics are dead last in the NBA in that category at -2.1 expected wins. The Rockets are 29th, they are at -1.1, a whole game better than Boston is.
The Celtics net rating is indicative of a team that is on pace to win 51 games this season; that is higher than the 7-4 76ers and the 8-4 Lakers (though that Lakers number is skewed a bit due to their blowout loss in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night).
The Celtics also have not shot the three-pointer well this season. Since coming to the Celtics, Derrick White has been a 38% three-point shooter, but he is at just 29% this season. Payton Pritchard who is a career 39% three-point shooter is at just 28% from beyond the arc this season. Sam Hauser who is a career 44% three-point shooter is shooting 32% this season.
Water is likely to find its level with those guys because they are too good of shooters to keep shooting like this. As a result, there is an argument that the Celtics could be even better than the numbers suggest.
Why is the Celtics net rating high but their record mediocre? They just have not done a good job at closing game.
The Celtics are one of two teams to have four 20+ point wins this season, Boston is 4-1 in games decided by 20+ points. The early indication is that they blow teams out and don’t get blown out themselves.
That makes sense because, no matter how many people want to deny it, they are an extremely well-coached team. Joe Mazzulla has put their players in positions to be successful throughout the year. That, coupled with a championship DNA, and you have a team that isn’t going to get blown out very often.
They have had some brutal losses this season, many of which can be traced back to their inability to grab a late game rebound here and there. The loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday was decided because Jaylen Brown was out of position on a rebound and Kelly Oubre Jr. tipped it in. Their loss to the Jazz on November 3rd was decided on a Jusuf Nurkic offensive rebound when he went over Neemias Queta to grab it and put it back in. In the Celtics October 26th loss in Detroit, the Pistons had five offensive rebounds in the last 3 minutes of the game that led to eight Pistons points in a game Boston lost by 6.
That’s three games decided by the Celtics inability to get defensive rebounds. Instead of a potential 9-4, Boston is 6-7. Sure, 9-4 is not promised but they could be 8-5, which is where Cleaning the Glass says they should be.
So, are the Celtics good? I do think the Celtics have the makings a good basketball team.
They have gotten contributions from players we did not expect to play as well as they have. Neemias Queta is 7th individual net rating for players who have played 20+ minutes per game. Jordan Walsh, Josh Minott and Hugo Gonzalez all look like they can be real contributors next year. Jaylen Brown mid-range game has carried the Celtics offense at times this season.
