UFC 322 predictions: Will Islam Makhachev and Zhang Weili make history?

UFC’s annual appearance at Madison Square Garden always provides intrigue. In the case of UFC 322, the MMA leader has gone out of its way to remind the world why it’s exactly that.

UFC 322 is a card topped with a two-piece rarity. Champion vs. champion bouts are a treat in and of themselves, but on Nov. 15, they come back-to-back with genuine pound-for-pound stakes. In the main event, the near-flawless former lightweight champion Islam Makhachev moves up to welterweight with hopes to dethrone the new champ on the block, Jack Della Maddalena. Then the co-main event features two all-time great female fighters — on paper, flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko’s defense against former two-time strawweight queen Zhang Weili could very well be the greatest women’s fight of all time.

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Those two bouts are all this card needed to secure an A grade. However, the main card will essentially feature an unofficial welterweight tournament among the very best contenders. Throw in tons of violent pairings and significant matchups throughout the night, and in 2025 it doesn’t get better than UFC 322.

👑 UFC 322 lineup Crown grade: A+ 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

170 pounds: Jack Della Maddalena (+220) vs. Islam Makhachev (-275)

Makhachev’s injection into the welterweight division is still one I can’t quite wrap my head around. He’s been about as perfect of a lightweight as there’s ever been, and the pursuit of two-division champion status is something his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov left on the table.

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Does all that dominance change 15 pounds up in weight? The new challenge of Della Maddalena — the ultimate underdog — became ultra-perplexing the moment “JDM” took the belt from Belal Muhammad.

Let’s start with the defending champ. Della Maddalena has some of the cleanest, prettiest-to-watch boxing in MMA right now. The work he did against Muhammad — defensively as well — was a delight. In a pure striking match, “JDM” is a proven handful for anyone. Although the finish never came against Muhammad, that’s typically the method the Aussie uses to get the job done. And as great as Makhachev has been in all departments, he’ll find himself touched by Della Maddalena on Saturday.

The x-factor with nearly every Dagestani superstar is their sambo and near-unstoppable grappling game. That’ll be the most intriguing area we’ll see UFC 322’s headlining bout go, because Makhachev will have his typical success despite going up in weight. Della Maddalena remains a low-key phenomenal scrambler, escaping positions against the likes of Muhammad and talented BJJ player Gilbert Burns. Della Maddalena has to replicate his past defensive maneuvers and attacks on exits, like he’s done so well.

The problem here is Makhachev’s overall technical soundness. He’s a different beast when it comes to talent. Cutting less weight could very well be an advantage, as he’s put on visible mass in preparation for this weekend. Could that be detrimental to his longevity in the fight? Sure. But that’s if it gets there, and I have a feeling a submission could arise before that matters. If not, Makhachev will have his three-round lead, leaving “JDM” in that underdog role he’s become accustomed to, seeking the late comeback.

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Either way, it’s going to be theater. Makhachev has just been too good and shown far fewer holes than his championship counterpart.

Pick: Makhachev

125 pounds: Valentina Shevchenko (-140) vs. Zhang Weili (+115)

Alright, folks. I’m an absolute sucker for this matchup — because, on paper, it’s the greatest female fight of all time. If not, it’s No. 2, right behind Amanda Nunes vs. Cris Cyborg. History of the highest order.

Champion vs. champion fights between women have been few and far between throughout MMA history, but they have delivered every time. Just ask Xiong JingNan and Angela Lee in ONE Championship, who couldn’t get enough of fighting each other, doing it three times — all of which were instant classics.

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With Shevchenko vs. Zhang, we get the highest caliber of technique and skill imaginable in MMA. It’s not just champion vs. champion, but GOAT vs. GOAT. The winner could easily be considered the GOAT by Sunday morning — or if nothing else, the skill-for-skill most talented to ever do it.

So let me say this before we continue: Expect a wildly competitive fight, teetering between chess match and rock ’em sock ’em punch-out. It’s a coin flip for me, and unfortunately, I have to pick a winner. The unknown of Zhang at flyweight (albeit back at flyweight) concerns me more than it does Makhachev, so I ever-so-slightly edge it to “The Bullet.”

In Zhang, you have the more recently successful champion in terms of dominance. She’s honing her game and adding new skills each and every time out — something rarely seen for fighter already atop the mountain. The size difference factor isn’t a major concern for Zhang, who is technically superior to nearly everyone. It’s Shevchenko’s physicality that’s the problem, accompanied by her own stellar technique.

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In Shevchenko’s recent stretch of bouts, she succumbed to Alexa Grasso the first time around before adapting brilliantly in their competitive final two fights, using her veteran savvy and brilliant fight IQ to outwit her Mexican rival. Against a larger Manon Fiorot in her latest win, she was met with an imposing force who found moments of success with control, but largely couldn’t outpoint the always sharp Shevchenko.

The versatility in Zhang’s overall toolbox gives her a phenomenal chance to catch Shevchenko and do damage. That will happen. Some of the counter exchanges in this fight will be gorgeous, and the ways in which each fighter approaches their takedowns will display timing you just don’t see every week.

Each woman is capable of fighting their opponents to their strengths, and both often do, making this almost a mirror matchup. Regarding finishing ability in every aspect, Zhang holds the edge there, and may have it bolstered by the easier weight cut to 125 pounds. The only area where I pause is looking back at Zhang’s win over Yan Xiaonan — the challenger had a great deal of success striking during the albeit brief time the fight was on the feet. Shevchenko has surely analyzed that, and should she take advantage, this one will fall back to those grappling exchanges — the chess match within the chess match.

I love this fight and hate having to pick a winner. Is the safe pick Shevchenko? Not really. But with a fight like this, she has the advantage of repetition at the weight.

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Pick: Shevchenko

170 pounds: Sean Brady (-145) vs. Michael Morales (+120)

Sean Brady refuses to fade into contender limbo, and we’re here for it.

The Michael Morales matchup wasn’t at all one I expected to see after Brady’s massive — and dominant — win over Leon Edwards in March, but Makhachev threw a wrench into how all of this came together with his jump to welterweight. That’s not a complaint whatsoever.

Fans of sparkly records should be salivating at pairing, with their only combined loss coming from Brady. Morales has been a wrecking ball phenom, appearing to be the clear future of the division. His striking has been unmatched thus far in his career, and it will pose problems for Brady in the form of kicks, knees and rangy punches. The dude is a massive welterweight. He’s going to make the stalky wrestler work.

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That’s the thing, though. If you have no space to breathe, then all your physical advantages become useless.

Brady continues to impress and improve his overall game, and he’s been unstoppable on the mat, smothering everyone he gets ahold of. He’s been a man on a mission since his lone loss to Muhammad, and the experience difference in competition — and age — could show itself here.

A setback won’t be the worst thing in the world for Morales, and could have a similar effect on him as Brady’s did back in 2022. It’s just the Philadelphian’s time.

Pick: Brady

170 pounds: Leon Edwards (+180) vs. Carlos Prates (-220)

Speaking of Edwards — he’s back, too. And unfortunately for him, he’s tasked with one tough nerd.

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Listen, I’ve always appreciated Edwards’ ability much more than most, and he’s the better overall fighter compared to Carlos Prates. I don’t think that’s even much of a debate. However, his chin at this stage of his career scares the hell out of me against maybe 170-pound’s most dangerous man.

I’m still absolutely floored by the filthy spinning back elbow Prates pulled off against Geoff Neal. This guy uses his joint strikes with abusive force, and when Edwards wants to close the distance to grapple, he won’t be any safer than he will be at range.

There’s just too much danger for Edwards to avoid for 15 minutes, and Prates is on a mission to be the first man to knock out those who haven’t been knocked out before. He’ll do it again against “Rocky.”

Pick: Prates

155 pounds: Beneil Dariush (+165) vs. Benoît Saint-Denis (-200)

Alright, I have to be fair and honest — the things I just said about Edwards vs. Prates are very applicable to Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis … yet I’m taking the Edwards of this matchup, which is Dariush.

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“BSD” is violence personified. But despite his latest pair of victories, questions remain about how legit he is. Those wins came over a short-notice Kyle Prepolec and an inexperienced — somewhat exposed — Mauricio Ruffy. Both were submissions after the typical “BSD” brutality on the feet.

There will be no submission for Saint-Denis this time around.

The perennial dark horse Dariush has pretty much seen his lightweight title window close, but he’s still as refined as it gets, and very much capable of grappling with anyone. His win over Renato Moicano was a good reminder that, yeah, he’s not a fun problem to solve.

Realistically, Saint-Denis is going to have to go in heavy and swing for the fences to shut Dariush’s lights out. That’s extremely possible — as is the same happening to him. But the difference in each man’s grappling acumen is where I can’t help my lean toward the old dog.

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Pick: Dariush

Preliminary Notes

For a long while, I never thought we’d see Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez rematch their controversial 2019 bout from their days as prospects in Invicta FC. Cortez secured a blatant robbery win in that fight, and since then, we’ve seen a significant discrepancy in their progressions. This will be a satisfying potential win to get back for Blanchfield, and should inch her closer to her first flyweight title shot.

Blanchfield’s close friend and teammate, Fatima Kline, can also catapult herself into more notable matchups after an Angela Hill win.

Bo Nickal is back, attempting to right the wrongs of defeat against Reinier de Ridder — in a matchup tailor-made to replicate his Paul Craig win.

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Gregory Rodrigues vs. Roman Kopylov is a guaranteed knockout waiting to happen, as is the scheduled wolf-feeding for Baisangur Susurkaev.

UFC 322 is awesome, folks. All of these fights have plenty to like.

Quick picks:

• Bo Nickal (-225) def. Rodolfo Vieira (+185)

• Gregory Rodrigues (-160) def. Roman Kopylov (+135)

• Erin Blanchfield (-275) def. Tracy Cortez (+220)

• Malcolm Wellmaker (-165) def. Cody Haddon (+135)

• Kyle Daukaus (-400) def. Gerald Meerschaert (+310)

• Pat Sabatini (-135) def. Chepe Mariscal (+110)

• Fatima Kline (-500) def. Angela Hill (+375)

• Baisangur Susurkaev (-1000) def. Eric McConico (+650)