Each offseason, teams scour the free-agent market for potential big-upside plays — underrated players who could be difference-makers in the season to come.
When you can find an underrated free agent who proves to be key for your club the next season, it’s a special kind of coup. When that player is a relief pitcher, it’s even better given how unpredictable bullpen arms can be.
This offseason, there is a reliever out there who is coming off a shaky campaign that might bring his price down from what it would have been had he continued on his prior trajectory. But when you look under the hood, there’s a lot to like.
That free-agent hurler is Luke Weaver, and as the right-hander enters his age-32 season in 2026, he could provide a big boost for the team that signs him if the underlying trends are any indication.
Under the microscope as a Yankees pitcher, any bad outing can fuel scrutiny. And Weaver had several of them with New York in 2025. But was he really as unpredictably underwhelming as it might have seemed on the surface?
Let’s have a look at why Weaver could be an underrated pickup on this offseason’s reliever market.
Prior to joining the Yankees, Weaver had been primarily a starting pitcher. From his debut season in 2016 through the 2022 campaign, he pitched to a 4.79 ERA with the Cardinals, D-backs and Royals. He then pitched for the Reds and Mariners in ’23, before Seattle dealt him to New York.
The Yanks converted Weaver to a full-time reliever in 2024, and he became a revelation in pinstripes.
In 2024, Weaver posted a 2.89 ERA over 62 appearances for New York, striking out a career-high 31.1% of the batters he faced thanks in large part to a very effective fastball-changeup mix.
He was so good, even into October as the Yankees made a run all the way to the World Series, that he was arguably the best reliever in the game for a time.
But this past season, at least in terms of the surface-level stats, Weaver took a significant step back. He carried over his dominance from the prior year into the first couple of months of the 2025 campaign, but he was sidelined by a left hamstring injury in early June, and upon returning, he struggled.
When Weaver went on the injured list, he had a 1.05 ERA. But after returning about three weeks later, he wasn’t the same, posting a 5.31 ERA the rest of the way. Things were particularly bad in July and September, in which he had ERAs of 7.15 and 9.64, respectively.
Weaver was then charged with five runs without getting an out over his first two playoff outings last month against the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
All of that could very well be cause for concern when it comes to his free agency. But there’s more here than meets the eye.
On its face, Weaver’s 2025 campaign was rocky. But beneath the surface, in some key respects, it was better than his career-best performance in ’24.
xERA: 3.31
xBA: .200
xwOBA: .283
Chase rate: 31.9%
Changeup run value: +3
xERA: 3.01
xBA: .196
xwOBA: .272
Chase rate: 32.8%
Changeup run value: +5
One of the reasons Weaver had such difficulties in the second half of last season and into the playoffs might be that he was tipping his pitches, and the subsequent adjustments he tried to make didn’t yield the results he was looking for.
Making in-season adjustments can be incredibly difficult, particularly with something as meticulous as a pitcher’s mechanics. Having an offseason to figure that out could make a major difference for Weaver moving forward.
“Being a starting pitcher, honestly, it’s gotta be the best job in the big leagues,” Weaver told MLB Network insiders Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman on their podcast in September. “Especially when it’s going well.”
For the most part, it hasn’t gone well for Weaver as a starter. And it’s clear he discovered something when he moved to the bullpen full-time.
“I’ve just found this niche,” he said. “I’ve just found this ability to do something a little bit different and then use my background of starting and channel it into how I pitch now.”
Being willing to start certainly will widen the pool of potential suitors for Weaver, but if he does return to starting, it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be.
One thing is for sure: He was better than he looked in 2025.
You know what they say: “You can never have too much pitching.”
That saying has proven to be true time and again, which means Weaver’s market should be fairly robust despite his difficult 2025.
Which clubs might stand to benefit from Weaver’s services the most?
There are, of course, the incumbent Yankees, who know Weaver better than most after having him in their bullpen the past two seasons. New York will certainly have to address the bullpen with Weaver and Devin Williams on the open market.
There have been rumors about the Yankees’ archnemesis, the Red Sox, being a potential suitor for Weaver. Boston had one of the best bullpens in the game in 2025, but according to a MassLive report, the Sox could be in the market for relief help to replace free agents Steven Matz and Justin Wilson.
Inserting Weaver into the mix when you’ve already got Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman at the back of the ’pen could create a three-headed monster for Boston.
How about a reunion in the desert? The D-backs could be a fit, with Arizona coming off a pair of years in which they missed the playoffs following a surprise World Series appearance in 2023.
The D-backs’ bullpen ranked 27th last season with a 4.82 ERA, ahead of only the Angels, Rockies and Nationals. If they’re going to bounce back, bolstering the relief corps will need to be a priority, and there’s familiarity with Weaver.
And … let’s see. The A’s? The A’s! The Athletics have a lot going for them as they seek to return to contention in the years ahead, particularly on the offensive side — with slugging first baseman and AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, runner-up Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler and others, this is a club that will score runs.
But what about preventing them? The A’s finished 24th in the Majors in bullpen ERA last season, and could certainly use some help there.
