With the 2025 season behind us and the hot stove ready to burn, we’re taking a closer look at some of the most prominent players eligible for free agency.
Name: Framber Valdez
Position: Left-handed starting pitcher
Team: Houston Astros
Age (as of Opening Day 2026): 32
2025 stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 1.245 WHIP, 187 K’s, 114 ERA+, 4.0 fWAR
Qualifying Offer: Yes
Framber Valdez was at the general managers meetings in Las Vegas last week, making his pitch to teams as he takes his first run at free agency.
His work on the mound in recent years has been incredibly consistent; since the start of 2022, Valdez is 57-35 with a 3.21 ERA, averaging 191 innings per season. But as one executive recently said, there are some issues that might prompt clubs to “really look under the hood” before committing to a long-term deal.
The first is Valdez’s performance over the final two months of 2025, when the left-hander went 2-7 with a 6.05 ERA in 10 starts. He still managed to finish the year with a 13-11 record and 3.66 ERA, topping the 190-inning mark for the third time in the past four seasons.
The second was a single pitch thrown by Valdez on Sept. 2, one that likely led to the pitcher making the trip to Las Vegas to sit down with potential suitors.
Valdez gave up a grand slam to Trent Grisham after catcher César Salazar had motioned for him to step off the rubber. Two pitches later, Valdez fired a fastball that struck his catcher in the chest protecter after Salazar had called for a curveball. Both players insisted it was simply a cross-up, but Valdez’s reaction after the pitch – he turned his back on his battery-mate – left some around the game wondering if Valdez’s act had been intentional.
“I think some clubs might have pause over that incident, but don’t think it will limit him too much,” an AL executive said. “There are so few quality starters. He’s been both durable and quality.”
Valdez has been a workhorse for the Astros since joining the rotation in 2020; only four pitchers have thrown more innings during that stretch, and Valdez’s 3.23 ERA is lower than all but one in that group (Zack Wheeler). His 73 wins since the start of 2020 are tied with Max Fried for the most in the Majors.
“The guy has been amazingly consistent for years,” an AL executive said. “He should have a very robust market. Age could hold him back from getting Fried-type money.”
Let’s take a look at how Valdez’s offseason might play out.
No team in the AL – and possibly the Majors – needs a frontline starter more than the Orioles, who finished in last place in the AL East last season after back-to-back postseason appearances. Baltimore’s rotation ranked 13th in the AL in ERA, giving up the third-most home runs. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Valdez signed in 2015, so he has a history with the left-hander.
Toronto made a stunning run to the World Series despite ranking 10th in the AL in rotation ERA and 14th in home runs allowed, and while the Blue Jays will return right-handers Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and José Berríos, they will pursue at least one starter this winter – preferably a lefty. Bieber’s decision to return on his $16 million option should free up some money for the Blue Jays, though their top priority remains re-signing Bo Bichette.
The Mets haven’t been keen on signing starters to big free-agent deals under president of baseball operations David Stearns, but after missing the playoffs last season, everything is on the table for New York. Mets starters pitched the third-fewest innings of any team in the NL last season, so adding a workhorse with a strong track record could be the perfect remedy.
Boston landed the ace it desperately needed last year with its trade for Garrett Crochet, but now the Red Sox are seeking another frontline starter to pair with the 2025 American League Cy Young runner-up. Valdez would essentially replace Lucas Giolito in the rotation, adding an experienced arm to a relatively young starting staff.
After letting Shota Imanaga become a free agent, the Cubs are in the market for another starter to help lead the rotation. Valdez would provide Chicago – which had only two pitchers top the 150-inning mark in 2025 – with an innings-eating ground-ball specialist who could take advantage of the Cubs’ solid infield defense.
San Francisco has prioritized pitching this offseason, and after missing the playoffs for a fourth straight year, adding a frontline starter to slot in between Logan Webb (signed through 2028) and Robbie Ray (who is slated to become a free agent next offseason) would make sense. Willy Adames and Matt Chapman would provide solid defense behind Valdez, whose 59.4% ground-ball rate ranked in the 97th percentile of the league in 2025.
Houston has six players under contract through at least 2027 for salaries ranging between $19-33 million, filling up a big chunk of the club’s payroll. Hunter Brown, who finished third in AL Cy Young voting this season, is entering his first year of arbitration, giving the Astros an ace at an affordable price. Having extended a qualifying offer to Valdez, the likely scenario is that Houston will let him leave and collect the Draft pick, but until he signs elsewhere, a reunion can’t be ruled out entirely.
“I definitely think [the Salazar] incident will impact his market; I’m not sure to what degree, but I am confident that there are players and teams that will be somewhat hesitant to trust him. That said, he’s really good, so he’ll still do just fine. I’d imagine that he’ll find a team willing to look past that incident and pay him, but I would think that he’ll likely have fewer teams in on him than he otherwise might.”
Valdez’s ability to induce ground balls has been his calling card throughout his career, but on the rare occasion that he allows hitters to elevate the ball, they tend to hit it hard. Since 2020, Valdez has allowed an average exit velocity of at least 90 mph in five of six seasons, ranking in the bottom 10 percent of the league in each of those seasons. He’s also been in the bottom 10 percent in hard-hit rate in four of those seasons.
The free-agent market can be tricky for starting pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, but that doesn’t mean Valdez will have trouble securing a solid deal over a four- or five-year term, though six years isn’t out of the question. His durability will be a huge factor, especially when you consider that Blake Snell, who had thrown 180 innings only twice in his career (and won the Cy Young each time) signed a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers last year at the same age. Valdez hasn’t won a Cy Young, but he’s received votes in four of the past six years and is one of the most proven workhorses in the league. His highs haven’t matched Snell’s, but Valdez has been far more reliable when it comes to taking the ball than his fellow left-hander was in the years leading up to free agency.
