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On Tuesday, teams will have to set their 40-man rosters by 6 p.m. ET in order to protect eligible players from this year’s Rule 5 Draft (set to be held on Dec. 10 at the Winter Meetings in Orlando).
Six Top 100 prospects are Rule 5-eligible this year, and each one is expected to get that coveted 40-man spot. But plenty of other players without Minor League experience will get added too, leading to a flurry of moves as clubs carve out 40-man space or pick up players who could be on other teams’ chopping blocks.
It’s a big date to turn up the dial on the Hot Stove.
But we already got a taste of the flame over the weekend when news broke that the Mariners and free-agent first baseman Josh Naylor are finalizing a five-year contract to keep him in Seattle. The move makes sense for both sides. Naylor performed well for the M’s after his Deadline deal from the D-backs, and the Mariners were in need of a long-term first baseman, especially since then-prospect Tyler Locklear was included in a separate deal with Arizona.
It’s that last bit that’s important for this newsletter and our offseason work at MLB Pipeline. Every Major League move made in the coming days, weeks and months — whether it involves a prospect directly or not — will have trickle-down effects for young talents within each farm system. Some prospects might find new avenues open to MLB playing time. Others will see theirs blocked, at least initially. Others still will move orgs in blockbusters (the entire industry turns an eye toward the Tigers and Tarik Skubal).
Before the moves begin to pile up Tuesday and beyond, here is a preview of some Top 100 prospects who could be directly impacted by their team’s coming moves:
Kevin McGonigle, INF, Tigers (No. 1/MLB No. 2): This year’s Arizona Fall League MVP tossed plenty of coal into the engine of his hype train with his performance in the desert and only aided the belief that he could win a spot in Detroit’s Opening Day infield, despite playing only 46 games above A ball. His overall hit tool, improved bat speed and promising power are all that good. But before Spring Training competitions can begin in earnest, Detroit must await All-Star second baseman Gleyber Torres’ decision on the qualifying offer before another Tuesday deadline. If he accepts, McGonigle would be blocked at the keystone and might keep his focus to the left side of the infield, where all of his AFL defensive starts came anyway. Torres declining wouldn’t rule out a Detroit return necessarily, but it’ll be interesting to see if the AL Central contenders pivot to other big-name infielders (like Alex Bregman), pursue stopgap options or keep the lanes open for McGonigle (or Max Anderson and Hao-Yu Lee) to win jobs outright.
JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B/3B, Cardinals (No. 1/MLB No. 5): There’s no doubt that Wetherholt is coming to the Majors in 2026, and as a possible NL Rookie of the Year Award candidate, he should get heavy Opening Day consideration for Prospect Promotion Incentive purposes. The 2024 seventh overall pick showed his near-plus-plus hit tool could translate to the pros, and he added some pop at Triple-A with 10 homers in 47 games. Like McGonigle, he’s moved around the dirt as a pro to find a landing spot. As it happens, the Cardinals are believed to be listening on potential trades for second baseman Brendan Donovan, and the club is much more open about moving third baseman Nolan Arenado. Wetherholt is likely a better fit up the middle given his arm, but that would require St. Louis dealing the better player. He could handle third base, if needed, but that would require getting an Arenado deal over the line (something the Cards couldn’t do last offseason). Finding space for Wetherholt is something likely to be on the forefront of Chaim Bloom’s mind in any event.
Harry Ford, C, Mariners (No. 4/MLB No. 42): You’re going to hear Ford’s name come up a lot in trade rumors, and the reasons are obvious. He’s a catcher in an organization that employs AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh, the only catcher in MLB history to hit 60 homers in a season. Catching depth is great, but short-term playing time in Seattle is going to be hard to come by for the 22-year-old, who managed only eight plate appearances after a September callup. The Mariners signaled with the Naylor signing that they remain in win-now mode and could use Ford as a main trade piece for more MLB talent in other areas of need or in a deal that would deepen a top-heavy farm system.
Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs (No. 1/MLB No. 47): Kyle Tucker — a certainty to turn down the Cubs’ qualifying offer — is going to remain the hottest name on the free-agent market, right up until the day he signs, and he won’t lack for suitors, including big-money clubs in the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Yankees. Should he leave Wrigleyville (which still isn’t a sure thing), that would open an outfield spot for Caissie, assuming Seiya Suzuki continues to hold down DH duties. Caissie showed off some of his trademark MLB pop in a small sample but also really struggled against non-fastballs. That contact issue aside, he’s a 23-year-old with 226 games of Triple-A experience who ran a 107.9 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity last year. It’s time he gets to build on that Major League sample size, and a Tucker departure would give him his best shot.
Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees (No. 4/MLB No. 99): Trent Grisham, who received a QO, and Cody Bellinger are both free agents, meaning two-thirds of New York’s starting outfielders are likely to be on the open market. The other one-third just won his third AL MVP. There is going to be a certain temptation among the fanbase to turn over an outfield spot to the 6-foot-7 left-handed slugger who is coming off a 35-homer season and can hit the ball at exit velocities routinely exceeding 110 mph. Yankees fans should resist that urge. More importantly, the Yankees front office should resist that urge. Balancing Jones’ incredible raw power with his 36.6 percent strikeout rate and 41.5 percent whiff rate at Triple-A is a tough task for any evaluator, and penciling in such a prospect enigma into the Majors isn’t a typical move for an organization with trophy aspirations. The Yankees’ outfield plans — whether it be to go after big fish like Tucker, familiar fish like Bellinger or smaller fish — should be with buying Jones more developmental time in mind.
