Is Fernando Mendoza really the favorite for the Heisman Trophy?
Mendoza is now better than even money at -115 to win the Heisman following his spectacular performance against Wisconsin in Week 12. Mendoza was 22-of-24 passing for 299 yards and threw four touchdowns. It was the third time he’s thrown more touchdowns than incompletions in a single game this season. And he’s also had a game against Michigan State where he threw four touchdowns and had four incompletions.
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Mendoza also has the biggest highlight of the season of any Heisman contender with Indiana’s late touchdown drive against Penn State that culminated in Omar Cooper Jr.’s spectacular game-winning catch.
But it may be a bit too early to consider Mendoza the presumptive favorite.
Indiana is off in Week 13 and has a game vs. Purdue in Week 14 to end the regular season. Julian Sayin and Ohio State play Rutgers on Saturday before their annual rivalry game against Michigan to end the regular season.
That game against Michigan is the biggest game of the day on Nov. 29. Indiana and Purdue play each other a day earlier on NBC … at the same time a (likely) undefeated Texas A&M heads to Texas.
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Mendoza is ceding the stage over the next two weeks to his closest rival for the Heisman. And we wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Sayin ends up as the favorite for the Heisman at the end of the regular season as a result.
Sayin (+225) is still on course to set an FBS record, too. After a 23-of-31 performance against UCLA actually dropped his completion percentage, Sayin is completing 80.1% of his passes through 10 games. That’s almost seven points higher than any other quarterback this season and over 2.5 points higher than the 77.44% record that Bo Nix set in 2023.
Nix didn’t win the Heisman that season, but his team didn’t make the College Football Playoff, either.
Both Sayin and Mendoza appear to be heading for a postseason berth. And up first will likely be a matchup in the Big Ten title game.
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Fair or not, that game is likely going to serve as a tiebreaker in the minds of voters who can’t choose between Mendoza and Sayin, especially if Sayin is still comfortably ahead of Nix’s record. While Mendoza may have the biggest highlight so far, Sayin still has three games — and a Michigan mountain to climb. It’s too early to consider this Heisman race anything more than a toss-up.
Marcel Reed is the only other player with a fighting chance
The Heisman seemed to be disappearing from Marcel Reed’s dreams in the first half of his team’s game against South Carolina in Week 12. Reed threw two interceptions and had, no joke, a handful more passes that could have been intercepted. It was his worst half of the season and also his team’s worst as the Aggies trailed 30-3 after two quarters.
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Somehow, A&M flipped a switch in the second half. Reed led the Aggies to four touchdowns over their first four drives of the second half as A&M scored 28 unanswered points in a 31-30 victory to stay at No. 3.
That second-half performance is a large reason why Reed is still +500 to win the Heisman and the No. 3 favorite behind Mendoza and Sayin.
However, it’s clear at the moment that there are only three real Heisman contenders. No other player has odds better than 22-1.
