It was a rugby weekend to savour. In what was one of the last Autumn Nations Series weekends for the foreseeable future — see, Nations Championship announcement — it proved to be a memorable one.
England evoked memories of Yokohama by taking down the All Blacks in a thrilling second-half surge at the Allianz Stadium. There were predictable victories for South Africa, Ireland and France. But there were nailbiters, too, with Wales edging Japan late on and Argentina romping past Scotland.
It leaves plenty of food for thought, but are those reactions irrational or legitimate? It’s time to judge.
ESPN’s Tom Hamilton and Sam Bruce weigh in on the weekend’s talking points
– Nations Championship: How rugby’s new north vs. south tournament works
– England to visit South Africa in July opener
– Hamilton: England self-belief helps seal historic win vs. All Blacks
– NRL player released amid R360 speculation
Rugby’s disciplinary system is a mess
Rugby supporters were again left scratching heads over the decision to award Franco Mostert a red card in Italy’s match with the Springboks at the weekend. Later in the day, Eddie Jones was critical of the officiating in Japan’s defeat to Wales. It leaves fans questioning: Is the disciplinary system is all over the place?
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
There are so many irregularities from decision to decision, and TMO calls are sapping the game of any momentum. There was widespread confusion over Mostert’s red card. What is the point of 20-minute reds if you’re not going to use it for an incident like that?
The game was pockmarked with TMO calls, and it was even worse in Wales-Japan. Post-match, Jones was critical of the yellow cards handed out and for the most part, he was spot on. When you’re in a stadium and the TMO intervenes, there’s music pumped through the Tannoy to keep the atmosphere alive. While the call to mic up the referee and get their decision broadcast to the supporters is a welcome call, it’s clear that the whole process needs to be sped up.
Rugby is a game of immense variety, but it needs consistency.
With 10 wins and counting, England need Six Nations title
England secured their first win over the All Blacks at Twickenham in 13 years on Saturday. It was a statement performance. Should England now be targeting four from four against Argentina and the Six Nations title?
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It would be peak England if after the high of Saturday, they go and get annihilated by the Pumas next weekend. But that’s for England teams of old, this group are on a roll and central to this run is self-belief and trust in the system Steve Borthwick has built.
The coach himself was reluctant to place this win in the realms of the bigger picture. It was just another match, another win, and more lessons to be learnt. He was delighted, yes, but did it signify anything bigger? Behave.
We’ve seen false dawns before — when we saw the 2012 win over the All Blacks, there was a feeling England had clicked. Three years later in the World Cup they fell to their nadir. But this win is their 10th on the bounce, with several key personnel absent, and young players blooded. The Pumas will be an incredibly tough opposition next weekend, but win that, and England have to be targeting the Six Nations title next year.
Townsend out? Do Scotland need change?
A week after they toyed with immortality and a win over the All Blacks only to fall short, Scotland found themselves 21 points to the good against Argentina and somehow lost 33-24. Does something have to change?
Verdict: OVERREACTION (JUST)
Boos rang out at full time at Murrayfield. Sione Tuipulotu said the supporters were fair in their displeasure. Gregor Townsend was crestfallen. It was truly alarming watching Scotland capitulate.
They were magnificent in the first half, but once the Pumas made it 21-5, you just felt Scotland’s shoulders started to drop, and the belief started to ebb
From there, the Pumas did their thing, and Scotland were left bereft. Is it a leadership issue? Was the bench too weak? Or was it a case that the Pumas took their time to click?
There are two ways of looking at this: 1) Scotland have proven they can challenge the best, but just need to find that extra few percent to get over the line. Or 2) These near misses are far too frequent, and symptomatic of a group who have reached their limit. Towsend’s take? “I don’t think there’s a mental fragility there. But I think it’s being able to handle situations as they come and collectively and individually we have to do better.”
At the moment, it would be harsh to sack Townsend given there’s enough potential showing. He’s also under contract through to the next Rugby World Cup. But another underwhelming Six Nations showing, where they’ve flirted with a title challenge only to fall drastically short, and questions need to be asked.
No one is even close to the Springboks
Again, the Springboks had to play more than a half with 14 men, and again the Boks won. Right now they are in a league of their own.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
If there was a World Cup starting tomorrow, you’d put your mortgage on the Boks winning it.
Last week, they played 41 minutes with 14 men after Lood de Jager was red carded. This weekend, it was Mostert who saw red (harshly) in the 11th minute against Italy. But the Boks didn’t skip a beat, and still won.
Want to know the scary thing? They’ll be learning from this.
These two matches will be invaluable. Rassie Erasmus is a great rugby innovator. He tweaks lineout protocols, he has fun finding the grey areas in between rugby’s laws. But he can’t magic these situations where his team are having to play the bulk of a game with a man down.
Given the irregularities with the interpretation of rugby’s laws, this is all going to get worse before it gets better, and the Boks will be better for their two reds the past two weekends. While there are teams chomping at their heels, the Boks are, at the moment, ahead of everyone else.
The key question now is whether they can keep this going through to the next World Cup.
Wales are on the up, All Blacks are on the slide
These could be two transformational results at the weekend. Wales beating Japan was their first under Steve Tandy. The All Blacks’ loss at England snapped any hope of a Grand Slam tour. But are both results a true representation of where both teams are? Are Wales back? Are the All Blacks on the downturn?
Verdict: OVERREACTION
If you played Japan’s match back against Wales 10 times, Japan would probably win about eight of them. Japan were superior to Wales and deserved to win. Wales got out of jail, benefiting from some fortuitous refereeing calls going their way and while there were some individually impressive performances, it’s far too early to get excited about this Wales side. They lack physicality in their midfield, need some continuity at tight-head, and just don’t have the depth at the moment to change momentum in a match. Japan were magnificent for so much of the match, showed far more invention with the ball and should’ve won, but for the way they managed the last couple of minutes.
And as for New Zealand, just like Wales, we can’t read too much into one result. The All Blacks were missing several key personnel, are at the end of a gruelling season and just looked shattered. It’s clear they’re missing their absent contingent and have struggled to replace the legion of All Blacks greats who stepped aside after the last World Cup. But to suggest their “aura” has gone, or they’re on the downturn is to greatly underestimate the these players and their ability to rise to a World Cup occasion when it matters.
