The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup kicks off in just 203 days, but six qualification slots are still up for grabs via the Inter-Continental and European Play-Offs.
Two teams will book a place at USA, Mexico and Canada via the Inter-Continental Play-Offs, which will be staged in Mexico next March, while sixteen European nations, including four-time World Cup winners Italy, are set to battle it out for the final four UEFA qualification berths. And the path to World Cup is now clear for the twenty-two nations still dreaming of a place at the finals next summer.
Following a draw at FIFA HQ in Zurich on Thursday, the Play-Offs are now locked in, so which teams can start to plan for North America and who has a nightmare route to football’s biggest tournament?
With the ties now confirmed, here are ESPN’s predictions.
EUROPEAN PLAYOFFS
The final four places at the World Cup will be determined via the UEFA playoffs, to be played in March 2026. There is no path to the World Cup through FIFA’s inter-confederation playoffs.
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The UEFA playoffs involve 16 teams: the 12 group stage runners-up, plus the four best-ranked group winners from the UEFA Nations League who did not finish in the top two in World Cup qualifying. The teams will be divided into four pots according to FIFA ranking, with the Nations League group winners assigned to Pot 4 and drawn into four routes, each with four teams featuring a one-legged semifinal and a final for a place at the World Cup.
Semifinals to be played on March 26; Finals to be played on March 31
PATH 1: Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, Bosnia-Herzegovina
SEMIFINAL 1, Italy vs. Northern Ireland: The Play-Off nightmare returns for Italy following elimination at this stage ahead of the 2018 and 2022 World Cup, but they will be happy with a home draw against Northern Ireland in the semifinal.
Michael O’Neill’s team are huge outsiders and despite finishing second in their qualifying group behind Norway, Italy should be too strong and more than capable of erasing memories of failures to beat Sweden (2018) and North Macedonia (2022) at home in their last Play-Off campaigns.
WINNERS: Italy
SEMIFINAL 2, Wales vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Wales coach Craig Bellamy made huge importance of beating North Macedonia in Cardiff in their final group game because that would guarantee a home semifinal and that advantage should swing the tie in their favour. The Welsh have a formidable record at the Cardiff City Stadium, playing in front of what has been billed as a “Red Wall” of passionate supporters; Bellamy’s team should win this game to seal another home tie against Italy in the final.
WINNERS: Wales
FINAL, Wales vs. Italy: Despite being the highest-ranked nation in the Play-Offs, sitting 12th in the FIFA Rankings, Italy lack a proven goalscorer and they struggle to break opponents down.
If key men Sandro Tonali and Giacomo Raspadori are fit and in form, Italy should have enough to shade this tie, but Wales are strong at home and if these two meet in the final, don’t be surprised if Wales inflict yet another Play-Off heartbreak on the Azzurri.
PREDICTION: Wales advances to 2026 World Cup
PATH 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Albania
SEMIFINAL 1, Ukraine vs. Sweden: While Ukraine have home advantage, the ongoing conflict in the country means Sergiy Rebrov’s team will likely play this tie in neutral Poland and that could tilt the game in Sweden’s favour.
Sweden were dismal in qualification, finishing bottom of Group B without a win in six games, but their Nations League success last year sealed a Play-Off spot and star forwards Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres will surely see this is a second chance to qualify that they cannot pass up. Sweden are hugely fortunate to be in the Play-Offs, but they will be too strong for Ukraine.
WINNERS: Sweden
SEMIFINAL 2, Poland vs. Albania: Poland have become the team that always qualifies for major tournaments, but fails to deliver once on the big stage, but this is a tough tie and they might not even make it to this World Cup.
Albania, coached by former Barcelona and Brazil defender Sylvinho, are a well-organised, high-energy team, and they will be confident of beating Poland away from home. At 37, this will be Robert Lewandowski‘s final World Cup campaign — if the Barcelona forward is on form, Poland will win. If not, back Albania.
WINNERS: Albania
FINAL, Sweden vs. Albania: Albania are good enough to cause any opponent problems and they could quite easily travel to Sweden and win. But if Sweden overcome Ukraine and seal a home game in the final, it would be impossible back against a team with the attacking qualities of Isak, Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga.
Sweden, now coached by Graham Potter, really shouldn’t have this opportunity to reach the World Cup, but they are the strongest squad in Path B, so they will qualify.
PREDICTION: Sweden advances to 2026 World Cup
PATH 3: Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo
SEMIFINAL 1, Turkey vs. Romania: Turkey showed their strength by earning a 2-2 draw against Spain in Seville in their final Group E game, a result that restored some pride after a 6-0 home defeat against the European champions in September. Having scored 12 goals in three games against Bulgaria (twice) and Georgia in between the Spain fixtures, Turkiye are clearly an attacking force and Vincenzo Montella’s squad is loaded with top talent including Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz, Deniz Gül and midfielder Hakan Çalhanoglu.
Romania, coached by the 80-year-old Mircea Lucescu, are unpredictable but talented. They will be brave and confident in this game, biu Turkiye should be too strong.
WINNERS: Turkey
SEMIFINAL 2, Slovakia vs. Kosovo: Kosovo are the most dangerous outsiders in the European Play-Offs and much stronger than their FIFA Ranking of 80 would suggest. Franco Foda’s team lack big names, but their players are based throughout Europe and Kosovo ran Switzerland close in Group B, beating Sweden home and away before being held at home by the Swiss in the final game.
Slovakia shocked Germany with a 2-0 home win in qualification before losing 6-0 to Julian Nagelsmann’s side in Leipzig in the final game. Slovakia are ranked higher (45) by FIFA, but Kosovo are a better team right now.
WINNERS: Kosovo
FINAL, Kosovo vs. Turkey: On paper, Turkey are big favourites to make it through Path C to the finals, but home advantage could be decisive for Kosovo if they eliminate Slovakia.
Having only become a FIFA member in 2015, following a declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, the national fervour for home games in Pristina makes Kosovo a formidable opponent for Turkey. This could be a game in which Turkey’s superior talent and depth counts for little against a Kosovo team determined make history by qualifying for a first World Cup.
PREDICTION: Kosovo advances to 2026 World Cup
PATH 4: Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, Republic of Ireland
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SEMIFINAL 1, Denmark vs. North Macedonia: Denmark threw away an automatic qualification spot by drawing at home to Belarus and then losing away to Scotland in their final two games having been in control of Group C, so their status as favourites in this tie should be tempered by the scars of their group stage failure.
North Macedonia’s 7-1 defeat away to Wales in their final game should not be taken as a true gauge of their capabilities, though. Blagoja Milevski’s team drew home and away with group winners Belgium and they will relish their underdog status, just as they did when eliminating Italy with a 1-0 win in Palermo in the 2018 Play-Offs. Denmark should be too strong at home, but North Macedonia are primed to record another shock.
WINNERS: North Macedonia
SEMIFINAL 2, Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: The Czechs were locked in a surprise battle with the Faroe Islands for runners-up spot in Group L and almost blew it with a 2-1 defeat away to the perennial minnows in Torhsavn in October. But Jaroslav Kostl’s squad, which includes West Ham’s Tomás Soucek and Bayer Leverkusen forward Patrik Schick, held their nerve to seal second position behind Croatia.
Ireland came from nowhere to claim a Play-Off place, though, with a shock 2-0 home win against Portugal before Troy Parrott‘s hat-trick in Budapest, including a 96th minute winner, denied Hungary and claimed second spot for Heimir Hallgrimsson’s team. Ireland have momentum and belief, so they can win this tie and book a home final in Dublin.
WINNERS: Republic of Ireland
FINAL, North Macedonia vs. Republic of Ireland: Home advantage in a game to decide a place in the World Cup will be crucial and Ireland, backed by a 52,000 crowd in Dublin, might just have enough to make it the World Cup.
North Macedonia are more individually talented, and the same applies to Denmark if they make the final, but Ireland coach Hallgrimsson made his name guiding Iceland to a series of shocks and he can do it again if key players Troy Parrott, Ciaomhin Kelleher and Evan Ferguson are fit and in form next March.
PREDICTION: Republic of Ireland advances to 2026 World Cup
INTER-CONTINENTAL PLAYOFFS
The playoffs, to be held in March 2026, will determine the final two qualifiers. Six countries will take part. Each of the five confederations (apart from UEFA) will provide one country, while the host confederation (Concacaf) receives a second slot.
The two nations with the best FIFA World Ranking will be seeded and go straight into one of the two finals. The four other countries will be drawn to play a semifinal, feeding through to play a seed for one of the two places at the World Cup.
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New Caledonia OR Jamaica vs. Congo DR
Congo DR await the winners of the New Caledonia v Jamaica semifinal and it would be a huge upset if Jamaica fail to book a final clash against the African nation.
New Caledonia are the lowest-ranked team in the Play-Offs, sitting at 149 in the FIFA Rankings, and coach Johann Sidaner told ESPN last month that his team, from an archipelago in the South Pacific, have a “one per cent chance” of qualifying for the World Cup.
Jamaica blew their chance of automatic qualification with a 0-0 draw at home to Curacao on the final round of Concacaf qualifiers and that result forced coach Steve McClaren to quit. Jamaica will be too strong for New Caledonia and they will face Congo DR as underdogs.
Congo DR have Premier League experience in Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Arthur Masuaku and Axel Tuanzebe, but Jamaica can also rely on Brentford‘s Rico Henry and Ethan Pinnock. This tie is a close call, but Congo DR look to have just a little bit more quality and will claim the qualification spot.
PREDICTION: Congo DR advances to 2026 World Cup
Bolivia OR Suriname vs. Iraq
Iraq won a two-legged Asian Play-Off against United Arab Emirates to clinch their place in the Inter-Continental Play-Offs — their winning goal was a penalty seventeen minutes into stoppage time.
Due to their ranking of 58th in the FIFA Rankings, Iraq are seeded through to the final, where they will expect to face Bolivia. Coached by former Australia coach Graham Arnold, Iraq’s squad are largely based in the Middle East, but former Manchester United youngster Zidane Iqbal, now at FC Utrecht, is a player with European experience.
Suriname, ranked 123rd, have a squad of players based in Europe, but while Bolivia’s squad is largely drawn from South American leagues, they have a recent win against Brazil on their form guide, so should be too strong for Suriname. If Bolivia face Iraq in the final, it will be tough to call, but their experience of playing at altitude could be crucial in Mexico and it should give them the edge.
PREDICTION: Bolivia advances to 2026 World Cup
