Between infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, as well as pitchers Tatsuya Imai and Kona Takahashi, this is a big winter for free agents from Japan. We asked MLB Insider Mark Feinsand to break down the market for the quartet.
1. Murakami and Okamoto are both corner-infield bats with significant power and some defensive question marks. They also have plenty of differences, though. Do you expect a similar group of teams to be interested in both?
I’m sure there will be some teams interested in both players, but Murakami and Okamoto definitely have some differences that could impact the types of teams that pursue them.
Okamoto, who is entering his age-30 season, is more of a finished product according to some talent evaluators who have seen both sluggers play, while Murakami is still a work in progress — albeit one with what an executive recently called “epic power.” Murakami swings and misses a lot, which could mean some swing changes once he gets to the Majors, though the 25-year-old’s upside is undeniable.
Teams that are willing to take on more risk and bet on the big upside may wind up having more interest in Murakami, while scouts view Okamoto as a more polished hitter who has a little bit more defensive versatility than Murakami. Okamoto could be targeted more by win-now teams that are looking for a higher-floor player. One evaluator believes Okamoto may out-hit Murakami during their first two or three years in the Majors, but assuming he signs a long-term deal, Murakami will have time to work out the kinks in his swing and become a very productive player.
2. Where do you see Imai and Takahashi each fitting into this broader class of free-agent starting pitchers?
Imai can be slotted in with the top four or five starters on the free-agent market as a no-doubt starting pitcher on whom a team will likely make a large investment. The right-hander won’t land the same kind of deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto did two years ago, but he’s going to be coveted every bit as much as Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Michael King and Ranger Suárez — and unlike those four, he doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached to him.
Takahashi, also a righty, is a pitcher teams can be more flexible with; he can start, or he can work out of the bullpen as a short or long man. A source familiar with him said he’s very much into modern analytics and has explored U.S. pitching factories such as Driveline Baseball. Although Takahashi, who is entering his age-29 season, is only one year older than Imai, he figures to get a shorter-term deal than Imai, who had a 1.92 ERA this past season. Takahashi should give his next team some flexibility, potentially helping the staff in a variety of ways.
3. The Dodgers and Mariners obviously have enjoyed huge success landing Japanese players, and they are two of a handful of teams with a rich history in that market. Could we see a team that has not historically been in that group make a serious play for one of these free agents?
It’s interesting to put those two teams in the same category, because although the Mariners had Ichiro Suzuki — the first Japanese-born player inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame — Seattle hasn’t tapped the Japanese market for a star player in several years.
Aside from Ichiro, the best Japanese players to sign with the Mariners have been reliever Kazuhiro Sasaki, who won the 2000 American League Rookie of the Year award and made a pair of All-Star teams during his four-year career in the Majors, and starter Yusei Kikuchi, who made the All-Star team in his third and final year with Seattle before signing with the Blue Jays as a free agent in 2022. Hisashi Iwakuma also made an All-Star team with the Mariners in 2013, while Shigetoshi Hasegawa played the final four years of his big league career in Seattle, making one All-Star team.
The Mariners are always mentioned as a potential suitor for Japanese stars because of Ichiro, but they haven’t been one of the more aggressive teams in that area.
The Dodgers? Well, they’ve certainly been aggressive. They signed Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki in the past two years, and although they didn’t sign Shohei Ohtani when he came to the Majors in 2018, he’s helped lead them to two World Series titles in his first two years with Los Angeles after signing as a free agent after six seasons with the Angels.
Those three played integral roles on this year’s World Series title team, but the Dodgers’ history of signing star Japanese players goes back decades with names including Hideo Nomo, Hiroki Kuroda and Kenta Maeda. It would not be a surprise whatsoever if Los Angeles pursued any of this year’s crop of Japanese imports.
The Yankees have been one of the few East Coast teams to have great success signing players from Japan, with 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui topping that list. Masahiro Tanaka had seven solid years in New York, while Kuroda spent three productive years with the Yankees, as well. Don’t be surprised to see the Yankees pursue Imai and possibly one of the hitters.
The Blue Jays took aggressive runs at both Ohtani and Yamamoto, so they could look to sign one or more of the four posted players. Said one source, “There’s no reason to count them out.”
Another team to watch is the Giants, who had the first Japanese-born player in Major League history (Masanori Murakami in 1964) but haven’t dipped into that market for a notable player in decades. General manager Zack Minasian has taken several trips to Japan to scout players including Yamamoto and Sasaki, so he is familiar with the current crop of free agents. One industry source believes the Giants “will get somebody out of this mix.”
4. These four players each have posting windows that last until late December or early January. To what extent will waiting for resolution on one or more of those situations impact how the rest of the market plays out?
Every year, the market coalesces around these posting windows, though Ohtani and Sasaki were completely different, once-in-a-lifetime, unicorn situations because they weren’t necessarily going to the highest bidder, but rather being paid out of teams’ international amateur bonus pools. Yamamoto was the best pitcher on the market when he came over, so the rest of the starters needed to wait for him.
With these players, none of them are the No. 1 player in their class. When you’re not the jewel of the class, you’re forced to make your decision when some teams are not yet feeling the pressure to sign guys. If big free agents begin to come off the board around the Winter Meetings, those guys may not have to wait until the end of their windows to sign. But if a lot of big players are still unsigned, it’s possible they may need to go to the end of the window to get themselves more in line with where the big league market is going.
