• The Phillies winning the World Series (nailed it!)
• The A’s and Rays both making the playoffs (bingo!)
• The Cubs trading for Sandy Alcantara (boomshakalaka!)
At the risk of ruining my winning streak, it’s time once again to jump aboard the bold predictions train … just before it crashes into reality.
Here’s a starting nine of bold outcomes I envision for the 2025-26 Hot Stove market.*
*Accuracy not guaranteed. Inaccuracy virtually guaranteed.
I don’t want this to happen. The Tigers should be extending Skubal, not trading him … though it seems like the chances appear to be slim right now.
Sans extension, the Tigers should still be keeping Skubal for an earnest World Series run, even if it means losing him in free agency with only a compensation pick to show for it. We talk a big game this time of year about the “haul” a team can get for a star player, but the reality is that a player with only one year of contractual control can only net you so much.
(Take a look at this list of “top prospect hauls of all-time” and note that the deservedly maligned Mookie Betts trade made by the Red Sox in February 2020, one season ahead of his free agency, actually merits a mention. There just aren’t many modern examples of selling teams crushing it when dealing away an elite talent.)
The early Hot Stove reporting indicates that the Tigers are far more likely to keep Skubal than trade him. That’s good!
But earlier this year, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris dismissed the idea of the Tigers having a championship window revolving around Skubal as an “illusion.” Then, when the Tigers fell short in the ALDS, Harris doubled down on his team’s light Trade Deadline activity by saying he had no regrets about how that process played out.
The above signals to me a front office that is not inclined toward big swings and does not consider itself an entirely Skubal-oriented enterprise. The Tigers seem more inclined toward maximizing their assets and trying for multiple bites at the apple. And if you’re not going to go all-in on Skubal’s final year of control in 2026, then, yes, you have to at least consider offers for him.
No team would be more motivated than the Mets, who were victims of their own attempt to go for wile over style in their rotation last year and who have the resources to sign Skubal for whatever he wants long-term.
Probably the only way the Tigers could trade Skubal and still look at you with a straight face and say they’re contending is if they got a package back that’s fronted by someone of the ilk of early NL Rookie of the Year favorite Nolan McLean.
I don’t know if either team would do it. I doubt either fan base would love it. But the headline says “bold predictions,” so here you go.
Amid all the options seemingly on the table, the Tucker-to-Toronto chatter makes the most sense to me. Though the Jays whiffed on some recent first-in-class free agents, they have organizational momentum now that they did not have then, and he would fit their lineup beautifully. That he’s from Tampa, a stone’s throw from their Spring Training facility in Dunedin, Fla., is an added bonus. I hope it happens, to be honest.
Ah, but the Dodgers always seem ready to stand in Toronto’s way. They did it when they signed Shohei Ohtani, and again when they signed Roki Sasaki … and again in Game 7 of this year’s World Series. They’ll do it once more by using the roughly $40 million they have coming off the books to land a guy who fills one of their few holes.
3) But the Dodgers WON’T land any of the Japanese stars.
After acquiring Shohei Ohtani in his stateside free agency, as well as both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki in their much-publicized moves from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB, it might seem a fait accompli that the Dodgers will land at least one — or maybe even all three — of corner infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto and starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai.
It’s been too long since the Yankees asserted themselves in this particular international market. Murakami has huge pull power to go with swing-and-miss and defensive concerns. If that’s not a Yankee, I don’t know what is.
Imai will go to the Cubs, who need his pitching upside as they try to go from good to great.
And Okamoto will be the crown offseason jewel for a Pirates team that needs offense any way it can get it but won’t be playing in the free-agent market’s deepest waters.
Wait, did I just predict that none of the top three Japanese free agents will land with a team in a West division? That feels bold, too!
I’m sure I’m probably wrong about the specific team, but I do have this feeling Alonso winds up somewhere off the beaten path.
While Alonso’s free-agent standing is better now than it was a year ago (not just because his numbers were better in 2025 but primarily because he’s no longer attached to a qualifying offer), the fact of the matter is he’s still a bat-first player entering his age-31 season — a profile that teams are less willing to pay a premium for in today’s game.
If big-market contenders like the Yankees (Cody Bellinger), Red Sox (Alex Bregman) and Phillies (Kyle Schwarber) prioritize bringing back their prominent free agents and the Mets are serious about prioritizing run prevention, you don’t have to squint hard to see a situation in which the Polar Bear seeks shelter elsewhere.
The Orioles, Rangers and Diamondbacks are among the also-rans from 2025 that could certainly stand to upgrade at first base. So keep an eye on all of them. But the Reds are currently projected well south of past franchise-record payrolls and desperately need some thump.
Did the Reds bring in a 60-something future Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona just to try to squeak into the playoffs every year? No! They’re trying to go the distance. And while Middletown, Ohio, native Schwarber is the better sentimental fit, I see him going back to Philly.
Though I’ve predicted Tucker to land elsewhere, this should nevertheless be an active offseason for the Blue Jays. I see Bo Bichette coming back, for sure. Beyond that, I see them spending on a closer and moving Jeff Hoffman out of that prescribed role. Maybe not spending Edwin Díaz money, but perhaps Robert Suarez money?
As for the rotation, the Blue Jays don’t need to take a big swing after Shane Bieber’s decision to come back, but they’ll still need more depth. It says here that Scherzer will depart to rejoin his old University of Missouri pitching coach Tony Vitello in San Francisco, while Verlander, who was the more durable of the 40-something future Hall of Famers this past season, will chase another ring and another handful of wins with the Jays.
This would be Verlander’s first non-orange-wearing team, by the way. That’s bold!
6) The Giants will front the free-agent pitching market.
No, not by signing Scherzer as a depth piece. But by inking both Framber Valdez, who is arguably the open market’s top starter, and Díaz, who is definitively its top reliever.
The Giants began to reassert their spending power — their sleeping Giant status, if you will — by taking on the Rafael Devers contract this summer. Now it’s time to fortify the pitching staff fronted by Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
7) The Orioles will trade for another Milwaukee ace.
Within this supposed championship-caliber era for the Orioles, they have taken one big external swing — their pre-2024 trade for Corbin Burnes.
That trade worked well for both clubs in 2024. Burnes finished fifth in the AL Cy Young voting for Baltimore, while young Joey Ortiz had a solid season at the hot corner for the Brewers.
Alas, another quick playoff exit that year was followed by an uninspiring offseason in which Baltimore did not adequately address a pitching staff that lost Burnes in free agency. The O’s were out of it before Memorial Day.
The Orioles can’t let this core go to waste, and they need pitching. Maybe, in the second year of a new ownership, they’ll address the rotation and bullpen through some aggressive work in free agency, but their overall history says otherwise.
After restocking the farm system with a series of summer swaps, it might be more realistic to see the O’s swing a deal with a Milwaukee team that’s always down to deal and somehow grows pitching on trees.
Beavers. Brewers. Close enough, right?
Anyway, I’m sure these two clubs can figure something out. They’ve done it before, after all.
8) The Marlins will be active
In our fast-moving world, September already feels like ages ago. But the real ones remember the Marlins were in contention for an NL Wild Card spot late in the season.
Miami was already known to have quality arms (and Alcantara began to look more like himself after the club declined to deal him at the Deadline) and now has some intriguing core pieces in outfielders Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee and catcher Agustín Ramírez. The Marlins have nothing significant on the books for 2026 other than Alcantara’s $17.3 million and nothing firm on the books for 2027 (they have an option on Alcantara that year).
With all that as a backdrop, I’m envisioning a winter in which the Marlins emerge as players for someone like Ryan O’Hearn or maybe even Eugenio Suárez if his market is not what people expect it to be after a sluggish (as opposed to slugging) second half in Seattle. Perhaps they could swing a deal for Yandy Díaz with the Rays. Or they could conceivably go for a few short-term free-agent solutions that, collectively, add up to an intriguing offseason — a Rhys Hoskins here, a Marcell Ozuna there and a couple quality relievers.
Admittedly, this might be a proposition, but a team with an emerging and affordable base that finished with a better 2025 record than the Braves is — in theory, at the least — in position to surprise some people with its activity.
We all see it. We all know what can happen here. Ranger Suárez is a free agent, and the Rangers are a baseball team. It would make so much sense … if it actually made sense.
Alas, the already pitching-oriented Rangers need to allocate the bulk of their financial resources toward offense, not Ranger, who will wind up with that Tigers team trying to win it all without Skubal.
But if a short-term deal is on the table, maybe the “Walker (Buehler), Texas Ranger,” possibility is in play. Maybe Steven Matz returns to the Mets. Or that same team in Queens lands Michael King. Or someone pairs King with Ryan Pressly, leaving us all shook up. Or the team that signs Jon Gray also trades for Sonny Gray. Or the Twins sign twins Tyler and Taylor Rogers. Or the Reds pair Brady Singer with Sung Mun Song (who is expected to come over from the Korea Baseball Organization).
