Nolan Arenado, potential future Hall of Famer, is going to get traded this winter. Probably.
But not definitely, either, because we went through all of this last winter, too, and Arenado declined to accept a move to Houston, eventually remaining with the Cardinals. Not definitely, either, because while he’s indicated a willingness to be less choosy with his no-trade clause this time, he’s also a player who will be 35 in April and slashed just .237/.289/.377 this year, an 87 OPS+ that was his weakest full-season mark since his 2013 rookie season, which is the continuation of a three-season slide that followed his outstanding 2022, when he hit 30 homers and finished third in the NL MVP race.
Arenado is signed for two more seasons and is owed $37 million (not counting the $5 million Colorado will pay him), which isn’t an unwieldy sum for a player who’s still a plus glove at third base, if not nearly the elite defender he was at his peak. Then again, he’s projected to be the 22nd-best third baseman in 2026, after being the 24th-best in ’25, in large part because his hard-hit rate has declined, down from 75th percentile a decade ago to 12th percentile in each of the last two years. Over the last two years, he’s hit roughly similarly to Mickey Moniak, Jake Fraley and Michael Conforto, which means that even if he’s willing to play first base, it probably doesn’t make much sense to do so.
There’s market forces at play here, too. Plenty of contenders are well-set at the hot corner, and others may not be willing to make a move until they see where free agents Alex Bregman and/or Eugenio Suárez land, in addition to Japanese corner infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, who could be part-time options at third base as well.
But: He’s still Nolan Arenado. So what’s left to look at? It’s tricky, but we expect he will go somewhere. Let’s count down the other 29 teams to find a new home.
Probably not enough of a contender in 2026 (3)
White Sox, Rockies, Nationals
While Arenado has suggested he would be less willing to wield the power of the no-trade clause, he’s also not likely to do so in order to go to a team less likely than St. Louis to make a playoff run next season. These are the three teams that lost 95 games or more last year, and all have a ways to go in order to get back to contention. Yes, we’d have liked to have seen a Rockies reunion too.
Already have an obvious third baseman (10)
Braves, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Astros, Brewers, Twins, Padres, Giants, Rays
Is it plausible that one of the incumbents could move to 1B/DH or that Arenado could do the same? Maybe, but probably not. It’s also just not worth the effort if you’re this stocked at third base. You’re not going to bother trying to move Manny Machado or Matt Chapman or Austin Riley or José Ramírez, etc., etc., just to make this work.
The long shots, if you squint to see it (9)
Cubs, Royals, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays
There’s a lot of different moving parts here, and a lot of teams that might have a lot of spinning plates in the air. For example: Kansas City has Maikel Garcia, coming off an excellent season at third, but also a hole at second base that Garcia could probably fill if needed. Teams like the Mets and Blue Jays could maybe make this work if they don’t retain their top free-agent infielders (Pete Alonso and Bo Bichette, respectively), but probably not if those players return.
Go up and down this group and it’s all a lot of “sure, maybe, if” situations, yet few great fits. If the Cubs are worried about Matt Shaw’s .295 OBP as a rookie. If the Dodgers are worried about how much time Max Muncy has missed, though Muncy is a far superior hitter. If the Yankees are so worried about how left-handed their corner infield is, and how ineffective Ryan McMahon was after being traded, that they want another option. If the surprisingly interesting Marlins don’t want to commit to Connor Norby and get Arenado to agree to go there. Same for the Mariners, given that they already have a slick-fielding third baseman with bat questions in Ben Williamson.
You could maybe see one of these teams in the “musical chairs” section of this list finding a place for Arenado to sit, and all it takes is one. But it’s hard to see any of them as front-runners.
That’s 22 down, and no obvious answer. Let’s get to the more likely spots.
The 7 best fits, counted down
7) Athletics
Are the A’s (76-86 in 2025) a contender in ’26? The answer to that depends on how and if they’re able to reinforce a porous pitching staff, but it’s worth noting that they were an above-.500 team in the second half, with an extremely interesting young lineup – Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, Denzel Clarke – and a huge hole at third base, a spot that provided just 10 homers last year to go with some of the weakest defense in the game. The bigger question might be if Arenado is willing to wind down his career out in West Sacramento, but there’s a quietly intriguing fit here to be a veteran on a fascinating young team.
6) Pirates
There is a similar question here for the Pirates (71-91), just with the particulars flipped; Pittsburgh has Paul Skenes leading a quality rotation, yet desperately little on offense, as the 2025 Pirates came in last in MLB in runs scored. But it’s Skenes who sets Pittsburgh apart from the Nationals and White Sox of the world, and general manager Ben Cherington has been very open about making moves to fix that. (“We aim to add to the offense and will be disappointed if we don’t,” he said recently.) Arenado couldn’t and wouldn’t be the biggest bat added, if that’s really the plan, but this lineup is coming from so far back that any competent bat would help.
5) Phillies
Is Arenado better than incumbent Alec Bohm? He wasn’t in 2025, but that’s also not really the point here. The Phillies are expected to be one of the winter’s most active teams, whether it’s trying to re-sign their own free agents (Kyle Schwarber, Harrison Bader, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suárez) or moving on from Nick Castellanos – who is unlikely to be back – or simply just shaking things up after a second consecutive year having their season end in the Division Series round. Bohm, entering his final year before free agency, could be on the move as part of any of those things, which would open up third base. Top shortstop prospect Aidan Miller, blocked by Trea Turner, might be the answer there, but he’s also yet to play a single pro inning at the hot corner. Of course, if Bohm really is available, that’s another third baseman in the trade market to compete with.
4) Tigers
The return of Gleyber Torres complicates things, as he’ll handle second base, and Detroit now has potentially six options at third, which wouldn’t scream for an add. On the other hand, if you have six options, maybe you don’t have a good option. Zach McKinstry might be better served as a utilityman, and when Kevin McGonigle forces his way up, it might be as a shortstop. Jace Jung, the 12th overall Draft pick in 2022, isn’t totally off the radar yet, but after a 2025 spent almost entirely back in Triple-A, he’s not blocking anyone, either. We know the Tigers wanted Alex Bregman last offseason, though, and they’re likely to be in the mix again.
3) Red Sox
Nothing is going to happen here until Bregman’s status is clarified, so that might take a minute. If he signs elsewhere, then the incumbent third baseman would be second-year player Marcelo Mayer, but with some caveats. For one thing, Mayer missed the last two months of the season after right wrist surgery, making it his third consecutive season that ended early due to injury, after a back issue in 2024 and a shoulder issue in 2023. For another, Mayer is a natural shortstop who might also end up at second base, so he’s not locked into third. While Arenado is hardly the Alonso-esque power bat this team really needs, his dead-pull swing might work well with the Green Monster, too. He was reportedly willing to join Boston last winter.
2) D-backs
Eugenio Suárez was the primary third baseman last year, but after he was dealt to Seattle, that job fell mostly to Blaze Alexander, with a little time to Jordan Lawlar – whose defense proved unreliable enough that he was a DH by the end of the season. (He’s getting outfield reps this winter.) Alexander was fine, with a 95 OPS+, but he’s also made starts at second base, shortstop and center field over the last two seasons, meaning his versatility might be better utilized in many spots. Without any other internal options, the D-backs will either have to go with Alexander or look elsewhere – like, say, Arenado.
1) Angels
This might be it. This might be the spot. The Angels, 72-90 last year and having missed the playoffs for the past 11 seasons, might not be an obvious landing spot for a player hoping to find a contender. But they continue to operate as though they are, and the addition of Grayson Rodriguez surely opened some eyes across the sport. With Anthony Rendon completely out of the mix, the Angels had baseball’s weakest third base situation in 2025, a last-place ranking they’re projected to repeat in 2026. Although Arenado grew up in Southern California as a Dodgers fan, he attended high school in Lake Forest, which is far closer to Angel Stadium than it is Dodger Stadium. If he wants to get back home, he’ll never have a better chance than this.
