Mets’ signing of Devin Williams, like the Brandon Nimmo trade, depends on what comes next

In some ways, the Mets’ signing of Devin Williams feels a lot like the trade of Brandon Nimmo.

That is, it all depends on what else David Stearns does next.

In this case, it’s simple: if Stearns still re-signs Edwin Diaz, then the addition of Williams as a set-up man is a strong move, giving the Mets an elite late-inning bullpen duo that further demonstrates Stearns’ commitment to run prevention.

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However, if locking up Williams to a three-deal turns out to be a cheaper alternative to Diaz as the closer, it weakens a bullpen that failed the Mets badly in the heat of their wild-card chase last season and makes the former Milwaukee Brewer reliever’s difficult adjustment to the Bronx last year much more relevant.

With that in mind, a source told me late Monday night the Mets are still hoping to re-sign Diaz. But at what price is now the great unknown.

Indeed, it remains to be seen if the Williams signing, three years for $45 million, was a move made at least partly to give the Mets insurance against a bidding war for Diaz, allowing them to draw a line they won’t cross if they feel the cost is prohibitive.

And certainly there’s an argument to be made about not overspending on their veteran closer if it takes a five-year deal to retain him, considering both the volatility of bullpen arms and Diaz’s age, as he turns 32 in March.

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Yet, Diaz has been more consistently dominant for the last few years than most closers, and more to the point, he’s vitally important to the Mets.

Eventually, then, we’ll find out just where Stearns stands on all of this. Will his value-seeking instincts rule the day or will this prove to be part of his big-boy plan this winter, a Williams-Diaz combo offering proof he is all-in on building a championship pitching staff, top to bottom?

If it’s the former, and Diaz goes elsewhere, it would also raise the question of whether Stearns’ belief in Williams is influenced too heavily by their days together in Milwaukee, when the right-hander was one of the best relievers in baseball for a few years.

Williams fought through his struggles with the Yankees, which overwhelmed him early and resurfaced at times during the season, to finish strong, delivering nine straight scoreless appearances in September and then four more in the postseason.

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Still, the right-hander also has a huge postseason failure on his resume, that being Pete Alonso’s memorable home run to stun the Brewers in the deciding game of the 2024 wild-card series.

So there are questions about his ability to deal with pressure, to be sure.

Clearly, Williams was affected mentally by the expectations of closing for the Yankees last season, unable to command his famous “air-bender” change-up that made him mostly unhittable in Milwaukee.

And even with his strong finish, it’s fair to wonder how he’d react to the burden of taking over for Diaz, with similarly huge expectations.

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“It would be a leap of faith to think some of those issues he had last year wouldn’t re-surface if he’s asked to close for the Mets,” one MLB scout told me Monday night. “You could tell by looking at him on the mound at times that he was tight, and it showed up in his pitches.

“There were a lot of nights when he was yanking the fastball (inside on lefties, outside to right-handed hitters), and he was gripping the change-up so tight that the action wasn’t there on it. That’s what pressure does to pitchers.

“I give him credit because he did look a lot more like himself late in the year. But if I’m the Mets, I’d feel a lot better about him in the set-up role, with Diaz as a security blanket.”

This, of course, is the nature of the baseball off-season. It moves at a glacial pace, so it could be weeks before we’ll know what that role will be for Williams.

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Meanwhile, Mets fans wait anxiously for an outcome. Many have lost their patience with Stearns after last season, convinced that he is making decisions for the Mets at least partly with the mentality of a small-market GM, as he had to with the Brewers.

Fair or not, that hangs over him in an offseason in which big changes are needed after the Mets flamed out last year in embarrassing fashion.

So far, his two moves, trading Nimmo for Marcus Semien and now signing Williams, have opened the door to the possibility of a home run of an offseason.

But that would take re-signing Alonso and Diaz, then essentially replacing Nimmo with Cody Bellinger, and upgrading the starting rotation with a couple of front-of-the-rotation starters.

Make all of those moves and Stearns will be the toast of the town.

Until then, well, to quote the great Tom Petty, the waiting is the hardest part.