The Iowa Hawkeyes (7-0) returned from Palm Springs victorious and the owners of some shaky real estate in the top 25, coming in 25th in the USA Today Coaches Poll. They head to East Lansing, MI, a historical House of Horrors to face the 8th ranked Michigan State Spartans who also sport a 7-0 record on the season. It’s their best start since the 2015-16 season when they rattled off 13 straight to start the season.
In the new era of transfers and turnover, their minutes continuity is at 41.7%, second most in the conference and 51st in the country according to KenPom and their defense is a top 5 unit according to the same site. They’ll be tough because they’re almost always tough at the Breslin Center and this is the first true road game for Ben McCollum at Iowa.
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#8 Michigan State Spartans (7-0)
East Lansing, MI | Breslin Center
Tom Izzo (744—302 at Michigan State, 31st season)
How to Watch
Tonight, 12/2: Iowa at Michigan State
6:00 PM CST Peacock (Paul Burmeister and Nick Bahe)
Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Hawkeye Radio Network
Live Stats (StatBroadcast)
Stat Pack
KenPom ($): +25.86; 15th (118.5 Off; 37th | 92.7 Def; 5th)
BartTorvik: 14th (117.7 Off; 37th | 93.9 Def; 4th)
Sports-Ref:
PPG: 79.7 (146th) | 61.6 (11th)
RPG: 42.3 (35th) | 29.6 (20th)
Leaders (via Sports-Ref)
PPG: Jaxon Kohler (14.6); Jeremy Fears, Jr. (12.0)
RPG: Kohler (9.7, 3.9 off); Carson Cooper (6.0, 2.1 off)
APG: Fears, Jr. (9.9); Coen Carr (2.1)
FG%: Cameron Ward (61.4%); Cooper (57.4%)
3P%: Fears, Jr. (47.1%); Kohler (46.2%)
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Last 5 games
11/27: W v North Carolina (N): 74-58
11/25: W v East Carolina (N): 89-56
11/21: W v Detroit Mercy: 84-56
11/18: W v Kentucky (N): 83-66
11/13: W v San Jose St.: 79-60
Who wins the battle of the point guards?
In Bennett Stirtz’s first two games away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena this year, he struggled in ways we haven’t yet seen this season, going just 7/20 from 2 and 14/35 overall. His success was buoyed by 6/8 from deep in Iowa’s Acrisure Series opener against Ole Miss and ultimately, played incredibly clean basketball with just 1 turnover in 80 minutes of action. (The turnover, FWIW, was a cheap offensive foul call down the stretch as Ole Miss was trying to manufacture possessions)
Against him is Jeremy Fears, a double-double machine who plays similarly clean basketball averaging just 2.1 turnovers to his 9.9 assists per game. He has a similar steal rate (3.2%) as Mississippi’s Ilias Kamardine and averages 1.7 per game. He’s very much like Kamardine in the half court – a willing shooter from midrange (50% of his shots come from the area, making 44.4% per Bart Torvik) and adept in the pick and roll. But the real game changer is his ability to operate in the fast break.
In the highlights above, it really captures what makes Fears dangerous. He has an ability to find guys both at the rim and beyond the arc from all over the court, lobbying nifty alley-oops and cross court darts. Though Michigan State plays slow (17.6 seconds/offensive possession, 15th in the B1G), his ability to take the opportunities which present themselves create genuine highlights which can turn the tide of a game.
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Jim Jackson referenced Mateen Cleaves as a comp but to me he presents as a swaggier Cassius Winston. In his third year under Tom Izzo, he’s got the keys to the car and can rev his team and fans up.
Iowa is unlikely to throw Stirtz on him directly but my view on slowing Fears down is not over-committing to the offensive glass and playing clean transition defense. On the flip side, Stirtz will have to manage Michigan State’s length down low (both Kohler & Cooper have comparative block rates to Grand Canyon’s bigs).
Has he adjusted to the size he will face night in, night out, in this conference or will he need to be more creative getting baskets? He’s also shown a willingness to shoot from midrange but is pretty much Iowa’s only player shooting baskets from that range and he’s only 38% from the area.
Can Iowa continue getting help around Stirtz?
The Hawks saw a number of guys step up last week, with Cooper Koch showing why he’s been a day one starter under McCollum. He played 72 minutes on back-to-back nights. It was excellent to see Iowa’s lone holdover as a trusted role player for this Hawkeye team and he showed why with adept rebounding (4 offensive boards against Ole Miss was a game changer), strong defense, and closing free throw shooting. Can he build off the strong week in the first real road test of his career? Against a burly stretch 4 in Jaxon Kohler who’s in his senior season and is well versed in Big Ten Basketball?
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Kael Combs was the third iron man out west and looked the part with key defense and timely shots. They’ll continue to need his veteran presence as guys like Tavion Banks and Isaia Howard play more … volatile brands of basketball. Can those two keep their heads on their shoulders in what’s likely the toughest environment they’ve ever faced?
Alvaro Folgueiras played about 1 good half of basketball last week and seemed out of sorts against Grand Canyon after yielding the first (and second, and third) turnover of the season. Iowa needs him to step up if they want to have a shot against a well-schooled Big Ten outfit on the road.
It takes a total team effort as there are a number of strength on strength statistics to keep an eye on: Iowa gets to the line but Michigan State doesn’t allow that. Iowa puts the ball in the hoop at a high clip, which is something Sparty is good at preventing. Both teams clean up the glass on both ends (though Iowa is a little more wary chasing offensive boards).
KenPom has this one tight, with MSU winning by 5. He’s not moving as quickly on the Spartans as the voting public is, who value marquee wins against Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina (3 wins better than Iowa’s best after Ole Miss lost to Utah … alas) so maybe they are a bit overrated, though no less battle-tested.
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For Iowa, the Ben McCollum Proof of Concept has continued to pass the tests in front of them. I’m not quite sure what a passing grade looks like tonight but I’m guessing that McCollum would only view a win as a pass. But MSU, on the road, is definitely Iowa’s stiffest test to date.
Let’s see what happens.
