We are entering the final stretch of the NFL regular season when teams’ playoff paths are starting to tighten and it becomes clear what is needed to get into the postseason. We also can see where injuries have taken a toll on a roster where one group simply may not be able to sustain its previous output earlier in the season. Finally, strength of schedule and projecting matchups becomes easier because of the bevy of available data.
Let’s examine a few spots this week and place some early week wagers that hopefully close ahead of the market and deliver weekend wins.
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Here are three early Week 14 NFL bets to make right now.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 53.5)
Thursday Night Football is going to be a shootout. Both of these teams played last week on Thanksgiving, so while this is a Thursday night game, neither team is on a short rest spot. One reason the Lions were so limited offensively against the Packers was because star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown got hurt early in the game and was only able to play 6% of the team’s offensive snaps. He was surely a large part of their offensive game plan, and against a strong Packers defense in a short-week spot the Lions were unable to adapt mid game and find other angles to attack.
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This week is different, as the Lions know St. Brown is going to miss this game since he is considered week-to-week but avoiding an IR designation. Looking deeper into snap counts and usage rates after st. Brown sustained his injury, it was rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa who played the lion’s share (pun intended) of snaps and finished the game with 58 offensive snaps (92% of the team’s offensive plays). He played more than WR Jameson Williams after the St. Brown injury.
I am targeting TeSlaa props, and the first one that sticks out to me is his anytime touchdown odds at +200 at BetMGM. Considering his size and speed combination, he is a prime candidate to be targeted in the red zone – especially with the compounding injury of TE Sam LaPorta being out.
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Because this game is likely to be high scoring, it’s worth also sprinkling TeSlaa’s two-plus TD prop at 20-1 odds. I would play half a unit on the anytime TD +200 to win one unit, and a .05 units to win one unit on the two-plus TD prop at 20-1. This risks 0.55 units to win a possible two units on Thursday Night Football.
Bet: Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD (+200), 2+ TDs (20-1)
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5. 43.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Seahawks are healthy, playing fast and ferocious defense, and have shown to be malleable and able to adapt to various game situations. A team that historically has been dominant at home actually boasts a 5-1 road record this season.
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The first thing I notice about this game is the West Coast team traveling East for 1 p.m. kickoff — a spot typically associated with riding the East Coast team. Seattle has been able to mitigate those issues, though, going 2-0 in East Coast 1 p.m. ET games this season. The Seahawks beat the Steelers in Week 2 and the Jaguars in Week 6, winning on the road and covering the spread in both games.
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NFL market ratings are a key component to my handicapping. This week the Seahawks are power rated as the fourth-best team in the NFL betting market, with a +4.5 point advantage against an average NFL team on a neutral field. The Falcons rank 25th and are five points worse than an average team, also without factoring in home field. Using market ratings we take the difference in these numbers (9.5), and then factor in a 1.5 point home field advantage typically associated with NFL games. This brings us to a spread of Seahawks -8 in Atlanta.
Seeing the line at -7.5 (-105) at BetMGM provides an asymmetric opportunity in the market. This line doesn’t really have room to get cheaper on the Seahawks side – we will likely not see the line move to 7 because the value of the key number on the other side. So taking a soft -7.5 — meaning at less than -110 — is a floor price for Seattle.
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I also believe that the dome and turf fields play faster, and that works to a big advantage for Seattle. Kirk Cousins looks very slow at the helm of Atlanta’s offense, and the Falcons may still be without star WR Drake London. I expect a high-pressure attack from a relentless Seattle defense that prioritizes its speed.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta prided itself early this season on its passing defense, which was the No. 1 pass defense in yards allowed through the first five weeks. But that unit has surrendered 10 passing TDs since Week 9 (most in the NFL), while only generating two interceptions. Opposing QBs have boasted a 101.7 passer rating, 70% completion rating and average 289.5 passing yards over the last five weeks.
I am taking Seattle and laying the points early in the week. I think this game will close at Seahawks -8 and playing an early week soft 7.5 provides a nice advantage.
Bet: Seahawks -7.5 (-105)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 40.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
This betting line is in limbo due to the health of Chargers QB Justin Herbert. Herbert sustained an injury to his non-throwing hand during the Week 13 win against the Las Vegas Raiders, and it was announced quickly post game that he would require hand surgery this week but was still hopeful to play next Monday night against the Eagles. The extra day goes a long way here, and even provides a betting opportunity.
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What we saw in the action with Herbert playing with the left hand injury was a QB who wasn’t taking snaps under center, and instead was forced to play out of the shotgun or pistol formation for the remainder of the game. The same thing happened with Aaron Rodgers this past weekend, as he was also playing with a fracture in his non-throwing left hand. Understanding how formation changes will change offensive play calling and statistical output is fundamental for these situations.
If Herbert plays, the line will move simply on the fact that he is active, but the biggest edge will be in the game total and taking the over. Los Angeles ranks sixth in the NFL through 12 games played in Pass Rate Over Expectation. This means that in clear running down-and-distance situations, the Chargers are still an option for pass plays at a high rate. Factor in the inability to not hike the ball under center against a very strong Eagles defensive line, and I think Herbert is due for a high-volume passing day and will use the short passing game as a de facto rushing attack.
Later in the week when prop markets emerge, looking at Herbert over pass attempts, running backs under rush attempts, slot WRs like Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey over receptions will be worthwhile considerations, but for now take the over 40.5.
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In NFL totals betting, 40 and 41 are both very key numbers. If Herbert plays, this line will not be lower than 40.5, and likely crosses through the 41 and gains valuable closing line value.
Bet: Over 40.5
