By Gary Pearson, BetMGM
If you’re looking to back a long shot to advance to the 2026 Stanley Cup final, the following four teams represent my best predictions of the bunch.
Eastern Conference
Pittsburgh Penguins (+10000)
Backing the Pittsburgh Penguins to win the Eastern Conference is my best long-shot play, thanks to various factors.
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First, no team is less likely to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup final. That’s right, even the East’s 15th-place Buffalo Sabres have shorter NHL odds (+8000) to win the conference.
You might have to re-read that sentence a few times to let it sink in.
Sidney Crosby is on a pace for a career-best 59 goals. Only once before in his illustrious career did he break the 50-goal threshold, when he netted 51 in 2009-10.
And while most of the Pens’ stats have regressed, they are still getting solid goaltending from the resurgent Tristan Jarry and have the best power play (33.3 percent) and fourth-best penalty kill (84.9 percent).
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If you ask me, those factors alone merit a better chance of making the Stanley Cup than the 0.99 percent oddsmakers have them pegged at.
Ottawa Senators (+1800)
Picking the Ottawa Senators to make it to their first Stanley Cup final since 2007 is more a reflection of how wide open the Eastern Conference is.
The Sens are second in the Atlantic Division despite playing without captain Brady Tkachuk for most of the campaign, while receiving consistently subpar play from Linus Ullmark.
Ullmark’s numbers don’t instill much confidence, but he’s 4-1-0 in his last five starts, and Tkachuk has returned to the lineup.
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Let’s see how the team’s trajectory changes once the captain recaptures peak game sharpness. Their +1800 NHL odds represent a 5.26 percent chance.
Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke controls the puck as Minnesota Wild forward Danila Yurov gives chase at Grand Casino Arena on Nov. 15. (Nick Wosika-Imagn Images)
Western Conference
Anaheim Ducks (+2200)
What neutral hockey fan doesn’t want to see the youthful Anaheim Ducks go on a fairy-tale run?
I would have laughed hysterically had you told me before the season that Anaheim would be atop the Pacific Division after 26 games. The only ones laughing now are Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier and the Ducks’ band of effervescent upstarts, who, scoring 3.62 goals per game, boast the second-most prolific offense.
They have the sixth-best points percentage (.635), tied with the New Jersey Devils, and Carlsson is tied with Connor McDavid for fourth in scoring.
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Lukas Dostal, meanwhile, has the 12th-best goals saved above expected (10.1).
The Ducks’ +2200 odds of making it to their first final since winning it all in 2007 carry an implied probability of 4.35 percent.
Odds For The Five Most Likely Stanley Cup Finalists
Minnesota Wild (+2500)
The Minnesota Wild have gotten their act together since a stretch of eight losses in nine games. Since Nov. 1, they have the second-best points percentage (.867), behind only the high-flying Colorado Avalanche (.929).
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Minnesota’s recent seven-game win streak was thanks primarily to Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt’s dominance. The tandem has secured five shutouts in their past 11 games, four of which were by Wallstedt.
The 23-year-old netminder, who is 8-0-2, has five shutouts in his first 15 games in the NHL, quickly becoming one of the stories of the season.
If he and Gustavsson maintain their otherworldly form, I believe the Wild pose a threat even to the most formidable Western Conference opponents.
