UFC 323’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Merab vs. Yan 2

UFC 323 goes down this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 for Dvalishvili’s Bantamweight belt. Dvalishvili is making history by putting his belt on the line four times this year. If he successfully defends the 135-pound crown, again, he will elevate himself into the strata of UFC G.O.A.T.s.

The co-main event is also a title fight. Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van is for Pantoja’s Flyweight title. He’s only defended that once so far this year. Pantoja seems happy enough to be playing second fiddle to Dvalishvili this weekend.

He certainly has no interest in fighting him.

Rounding out UFC 323’s PPV on Saturday is Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira, Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott and Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov.

UFC 323’s late “Prelims” are headlined by Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres. That portion of the event also has Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan, Maycee Barber (if she shows up) vs. Karine Silva and Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam.

The early “Prelims” are headlined by Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira. There’s also Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner. Barboza on the early “Prelims”?! How times have changed.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 323 Main Card Money Line Odds

Merab Dvashivili (-425) vs. Petr Yan (+330)

Dvalishvili’s 2025 is a year for the MMA history books. He won his Bantamweight title in late 2024, with a decision over Sean O’Malley. And he’s defended that title three times this year, taking decisions over Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen and a submission over O’Malley in their rematch (see it here). Dvalishvili fought all these fights with his patented non-stop infinite cardio style, making it look as if he could have probably fought and won all those fights on the same night.

He’s been far from healthy, too.

Yan, meanwhile, gets his second crack at Dvalishvili this weekend by virtue of there not being many other guys around who can satisfy Dvalishvili’s wish to defend his title four times this year. Yan has won three fights since losing to Dvalishvili back in March 2023. They weren’t exactly against the cream of the crop, though. The run started with the inconsistent Song Yadong and then featured a win over Deiveson Figuieredo (who is not an elite Bantamweight) and the inexperienced Marcus McGhee.

When rematches happen, a lot of the time I’m inclined to simply pick the winner of the last fight — it’s pretty compelling evidence of who can win said fight. And when the bouts are close together, I feel like this favors the previous victor even more. Though, to be fair, this theory was proved very wrong with Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev 2.

Even so, Yan hasn’t made a big deal out of being injured the first time he lost to Dvalishvili and he’s not dramatically improved since then, either. I don’t think he’s fallen off much, but I really don’t see him being able to handle what Dvalishvili is bringing to the table (again).

Dvalishvili is on the verge of doing something really special with four title defenses. If this were anyone else, we would be talking about the fighter running out of steam this fourth fight being one too many. But, is there anyone in the sport better suited for this kind of record?

This year Dvalishvili has largely dominated his fights and looked as if he could come out and fight five more rounds immediately. I have zero concerns about this all being too much for him. And I’m totally expecting him to fight as he has done this year, with tireless, relentless, cardio pushing, soul crushing activity.

His first fight with Yan was really the opening act in what has been a late career blossoming for Dvalishvili. That fight was the template for the style he would use to become a champion and now potentially a divisional G.O.A.T.

He landed 11 takedowns in that fight off of 49 attempts. That’s a lot of missed takedowns. But, 38 unsuccessful takedowns still succeeds in draining your opponent, as well as preventing them from being offensive and thus putting on a show for the judges. In that fight, Dvalishvili proved that he doesn’t need to land his takedowns to win fights … he just needs to spam the attempts.

Despite missing so many takedowns, Dvalishvili was still able to land at least one in every round and turn that into a minute of control time each time. In that first fight, Dvalishvili was still able to find the time to out-strike Yan, too, by a bunch. He landed 147 significant strikes to Yan’s 75. And get this: none of those strikes happened on the ground!

Since that fight, Dvalishvili has looked better and better. Yan has looked decent, but I’d be very surprised if during that time he’s discovered something new that will help him beat Dvalishvili on Saturday.

Dvalishvili by decision seems like the most obvious outcome in this fight. Dvalishvili seems to enjoy breaking opponents and exhausting them more than he does beating them to a pulp. Vegas is very high on the chances of Dvalishvili getting the decision here (the odds on that are only -250).

The point spread on this one is Dvalishvili -5.5 at -195. Yan +5.5 is +140. The round total is 4.5, of course. The over is just -445. The under at +310 is tempting because those are massive odds. But, I struggle to see Dvalishvili stopping Yan (no one has done that). I suppose Yan’s chance to shock the world is probably via a big punch and we’ve seen Dvalishvili get cracked before, but that feels like too slim a chance to take seriously.

It’s really hard to get any value if you believe Dvalishvili is going to win. There’s Dvalishvili to win and Over 4.5 rounds at -280. That’s not very exciting, though.

The alternative point spread of Dvalishvili -9.5 is a little more sexy at -115. Dvalishvili -13.5 at +130 is even more sexy, though. He’s got to more or less blank Yan on the scorecards (or finish him) for that to cash. I guess I’ll go for that and just root for Dvalishvili showing us the perfect final form of his game against someone he’s beaten before.

Best bet: Merab Dvalishvili -13.5 (+130)

Alexandre Pantoja (-245) vs. Joshua Van (+200)

Pantoja has been confidently dispatching title challengers since winning the belt in 2023. His four title defenses have him creeping up into the Flyweight G.O.A.T. conversation. He barely broke a sweat in his last two fights, taking out both Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura with his wrestling and rear-naked choke. Before that, he got a decision over Steve Erceg after surviving a bit of a scare on the feet.

Van, on the other hand, has won his last five fights in increasingly exciting fashion. In his last bout, he looked fantastic in getting by perennial title challenger, Brandon Royval, to earn this title shot. Before that, he beat up Bruno Silva and Rei Tsuruya, putting a beating on them with his blitzing combos. His only UFC loss was a knockout suffered against Charles Johnson last year.

I think this is where Van’s fairy tale ends, for now at least.

I’m super impressed with Van’s 2025 and, if he wins the title here, he deserves a lot of consideration for “Fighter of the Year.” However, I just think everything he does well plays into what Pantoja needs to beat him.

Van lands the most significant strikes per-minute in the entire UFC with 8.86. That’s a truly absurd amount of volume. And he does that while maintaining slightly above average accuracy (56 percent) on those strikes and defense (56 percent) against the ones coming back at him.

Although, Van does get hit a lot. He absorbs 6.36 significant strikes per-minute, which is one of the highest in the promotion, too. That just comes with the territory when you throw so many punches. Van still has a decent significant strike differential, though, at more than two.

I just think all this forward pressure is going to play into Pantoja’s hands. His reactive takedowns are among the best in the sport. He’s so good at sensing when a strike is coming and level changing for an emphatic takedown. He’s not going to have to do much guess work against Van, who is going to be striking all the time (unless he surprises us with a patient gameplan).

Pantoja just feels like he’s on top of the world right now and his wrestling and jiu-jitsu, while not very sexy, is looking extremely effective. I don’t think Van can hang against that and I think we might even see a quick submission in this fight.

I know Erceg was winning on the feet until he made the boneheaded decision to wrestle. So, I suppose Van could mirror that success and then just not wrestle. But, I also think Pantoja learned a lesson in that fight and he’s was far less willing to take chances on his feet against both Asakura and Kara-France.

Van is more of a threat to him standing than both Asakura and Kara-France and his grappling is less proven than Kara-France’s (maybe not Asakura’s). All this means, to me, that Pantoja will be very motivated to get Van down and then school him.

Van does have a 63 percent takedown defense, but a lot of that was because of the very one-dimensional Rei Tsuruya going four for 21 in takedowns during their fight. Pantoja should be good enough to take him down into his world. We’ve never seen Van have to defend submissions against an elite grappler/finisher. I don’t think he’ll pass that test on his first attempt.

Best bet: Alexandre Pantoja by submission (+150)

Brandon Moreno (+105) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-125)

Moreno is having to jump through hoops to get another Flyweight title shot. The multi-time former champ lost his belt to Alexandre Pantoja via split decision back in July and didn’t receive an immediate rematch (probably since we’d already seen him in six title fights as either champion and challenger). He won a decision over Steve Erceg in March, which I think was a lot closer than the judges made it out to be.

Taira, meanwhile, ran through the previously undefeated Hyun Sung Park, a short notice opponent, in August. That helped erase memories of his losing effort opposite the aforementioned Royval. He lost that by split decision, though I thought Royval was the clear winner of that war.

I feel like this is going to look a lot like Royval vs. Taira, with Taira struggling to keep up with someone who is so incredibly well-rounded. Taira was able to get Royval into some dangerous positions, but his grappling wasn’t able to break through Royval’s defenses. That forced Taira to have to hang with him on the feet. Royval being just as good offensively with his stand-up, as he was defensively with his grappling, got him the win.

Moreno’s ground game is just as defensively sound, in my opinion, and his striking is better than Taira’s. And he’s had lots of experience against fighters with good ground games (with Deiveson Figuiredo and Pantoja). He’s got mixed results against those, two. But, I think both Figueiredo and Pantoja were better fighters then than Taira is now.

Since I think a lot of this fight will be standing, it’s important to look at those striking stats. Taira has a superb accuracy on his sig. strikes (60 percent). However, that’s because he’s been able to land a lot of ground strikes in his career. When he was forced to spend most of five rounds standing with Royval he ended up getting tagged for 124 significant strikes and landed just 42 of his own (with just four being ground strikes).

Royval was actually able to land 16 of 17 significant ground strikes on Taira. This is because Taira is too willing to hunt for submissions off his back. If he’s hanging out on his back against Moreno, I think he’s going to get beat up again down there and, again, struggle to find the submission that makes it all worth it.

Taira is also very hittable on the feet, as suggested by his overall 47 percent significant striking defense (Moreno’s is 60 percent). I just don’t think Moreno is going to let Taira have enough space and time to do what he does well and, instead, he’s going to have to fight in Moreno’s world far more often than he wants to.

That all results in another Moreno decision win.

Best bet: Brandon Moreno moneyline (+105)

Henry Cejudo (+225) vs. Payton Talbott (-278)

This feels like a bit of a spite booking for Cejudo. He last fought in February, dropping a technical decision to Song Yadong. Cejudo was hurt with an eye poke in that fight, but referee Jason Herzog encouraged Cejudo to tough it out and make it through the round so he could then lose on the scorecards, instead of walking away with a “No Contest.” That was the former Flyweight and Bantamweight champ’s first fight since a loss to Merab Dvalishvili in back in Feb. 2024.

Talbott helped win back some of his hype with a confident display over Felipe Lima in June. That came after his shock loss to Raoni Barcelos in January. However, maybe that was only so shocking because we were all sleeping on Barcelos (who has beaten the ghost of Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon since then).

Cejudo already has one foot out the door in this sport. I’m not expecting his best effort on Saturday night. He’ll probably be thinking of real estate deals and podcast guests in his locker room and not what the gameplan is against Talbott.

I think we’re right to question Talbott’s credentials as a super prospect now, but I still think he’s got enough going for him that he can beat this version of Cejudo.

Barcelos did make a mockery of Talbott’s takedown defense, but I expect it to hold up here. That will be due to the massive size difference involved. Talbott is six inches taller and he has six inches of reach advantage. He’ll be stronger and more athletic across all dimensions with Cejudo and I think he’s going to really hurt the former Olympic champ on the feet.

Cejudo has a very tough chin, but these things fade. And with Talbott landing more than six significant strikes per-minute, I think he’s going to put enough punishment on that chin that it will crack.

Even if Cejudo can get the takedown, I don’t think he will be strong enough to hold the much larger man down. This means we’ll be back on the feet again and Cejudo will have to deal with more striking. I don’t think this goes well for him and I think this is the last we see of him in the Octagon.

Best bet: Payton Talbott to win in Rounds 1-2 (+320)

Jan Blachowicz (-130) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+110)

Blachowicz lost a lackluster decision to Carlos Ulberg in March. A decent amount of people scored the fight for Polish Power, but it was hard to say with much conviction that either him or Ulberg deserved to win a decision in what was a very forgettable fight. That was Blachowicz’s first fight since he lost a split decision to Alex Pereira in 2023.

Before that, he fought to a draw with Magomed Ankalaev.

Guskov, on the other hand, is on a nice run. He wiped out Nikita Krylov in July (see it here) to extend his win streak to four fights (all by stoppage). His only UFC loss was in his short notice debut opposite Volkan Oezdemir (who has proved lately that he’s still got a lot of pop left in his bat).

I like what I’ve seen from Guskov, but I have some reservations based on his strength of schedule since dropping that one to Oezdemir. Krylov is totally shot and I was shocked/delighted to see Guskov as the underdog in that fight. Billy Elekana, Ryan Spann and Zac Pauga aren’t exactly conquests to write home about.

Blachowicz is, by far, the best fighter Guskov has ever seen. And, given how Blachowicz fought against Ulberg after such a long layoff, I think the former champ deserves to be the favorite in this fight. If Ulberg couldn’t find a way through on him, I don’t think Guskov will.

I just think Blachowicz has too many tools at his disposal to lose to a guy who just throws bombs. Blachowicz has survived against the guys who throw some of the biggest bombs in the sport. I think Guskov will be more willing to test that than Ulberg was, but I think that might play into Blachowicz’s hands and give him opportunities to mix in his wrestling.

Best bet: Jan Blachowicz moneyline (-130)

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UFC 323 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Grant Dawson (-218) vs. Manuel Torres (+180)

I kind of wish this was Grant Dawson vs. Chris Duncan and Manuel Torres vs. Terrance McKinney, but oh well.

Dawson has been dominant ever since his shock 30-second knockout loss to King Green (see it here). Since then, he has brutalized Joe Solecki, Rafa Garcia and Diego Ferreira with his smothering wrestling and ground-and-pound.

He’s now 11-1-1 in UFC.

Back in March, Torres hit Drew Dober so hard he had no idea the fight was over (see it here). That saw him rebound from his first round knockout loss to Igancio Bahamondes in The Sphere last year. He’d been on a six-fight stoppage streak before then, having submitted Chris Duncan and starched Nikolas Motta (with an elbow — see it here).

I’m going back and forth on this fight a lot. My initial reaction is that Dawson is going to make this a Dawson fight and get Torres folded up by the foot of the cage and then just slowly tenderize him for 15 minutes, never doing enough to get the stoppage or too little to justify a stand-up. He knows exactly how to walk that line. That line also helps him balance out risk and reward. He usually does enough damage to obviously win rounds, but seldom gives enough space for his opponent to escape.

But, then I think about that Green knockout and see that Dawson’s defense on significant strikes is 44 percent. For someone who is never on bottom (he leads the division in top position percentage — by a ton) that means all the strikes that are sneaking through his defense are coming on the feet. And Torres is so slick on the feet that I’m thinking there’s a chance he is able to light up Dawson with a combo or hit him with a spinning elbow he doesn’t see coming.

With how little time Dawson lets you spend on the feet an opponent really needs to maximize that time. Torres seems the perfect fit to do that. His significant strikes landed per-minute is second in the division (7.25) and he has the division’s highest knockdown average per 15 minutes (3.51). So, Torres seems the best candidate at Lightweight for hitting someone a bunch and making them go down in a very short window of time. And… as we know … every round starts on the feet.

I’m not feeling bold enough to pick Torres, even if he’s +275 to win by KO/TKO (and that’s the only way he wins this). The round total is curious, though. It’s 1.5 rounds. I’m surprised by that. Torres is a lightning quick finisher, but Dawson doesn’t have any first round wins in UFC. The over is tempting, but that goes against my thinking that Torres will be the most dangerous in the first minute of each round.

I’m going to try and have my cake and eat it, too, here. I think this fight is either a Dawson decision or a Torres knockout. And, luckily, there’s just the right bet for that.

Best bet: Grant Dawson to win by decision or Manuel Torres to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+115)

Terrance McKinney (+160) vs. Chris Duncan (-166)

McKinney is must-see TV, even if most his fights are about as long as a YouTube short. Last time out, he mounted and tapped out Viacheslav Borshchev in 55 seconds (see it here). That was his seventh first round UFC win. Those wins include a seven-second knockout over Matt Frevola (see it here) and a 20-second technical knockout over Brendon Marotte. His losses happen quickly, too. He’s been stopped in the first round twice, including when he was smashed with an Esteban Ribovics head kick last year (see it here).

Duncan, meanwhile, has been making a name for himself with his guillotine lately. It’s not exactly Valter Walker and his heel hook, but Duncan has tapped Jordan Vucenic and Bolaji Oki and made himself into one man you don’t want to shoot a takedown on. In his last fight Duncan used his boxing to beat the heck out of Mateusz Rebecki. He earned “Fight of the Night” award for that bloodbath.

Well we know McKinney is going to do everything he can to try and finish this quickly. The big question mark is will he be able to find Duncan’s chin in those opening flurries (maybe even off the opening bell) or will he over reach and land in Duncan’s famous guillotine?

Either way, feels like the fight will be over before we know it. And Vegas are certainly acting like that’s what they think will happen. Under 1.5 rounds is -360. I think that’s the shortest I’ve ever seen. The over is +260, which is tempting purely because of the odds. Even so, I’ll stay away from that because it seems so likely that this will be done in round one and, at the latest, early in round two.

I really like Duncan, but I’m not sure if he has the counter punching to make McKinney pay for his all-out aggression. Despite being so wild, McKinney still lands his significant strikes at a 56 percent clip, which is above average. Duncan, on the other hand, has a below average 44 percent accuracy. Duncan also absorbs an above average 4.53 significant strikes per-minute.

I think Duncan will be well prepared for McKinney, but I just don’t think he’ll be able to handle that early assault and that we’re going to get another classic McKinney quick win, maybe by knockout.

Best bet: Terrance McKinney moneyline (+160)

Maycee Barber (-180) vs. Karine Silva (+150)

Everyone knows what happened the last time Barber was booked to fight. Before the APEX “No Show,” she fell out of a main event with Rose Namajunas. Her last actual fight was in March 2024, taking a decision over Katlyn Cerminara (nee Chookagian). That was her sixth win in a row. That run also includes a technical knockout over Amanda Ribas (see it here).

Silva beat Dione Barbosa by decision in August. That saw her rebound from a decision loss to Viviane Araujo. Before that she was on a nine fight winning streak. Five of those wins were in the Octagon, with submissions over Maryna Moroz and Ketlen Souza.

I’m not going to bury the lede here. I’m fading Barber until I see her deliver another good performance. She’s been out a while now and there are just too many question marks about her fitness and, frankly, confidence. And, even on her best day, I think Silva is a tough challenge for her.

Silva has size and great jiu jitsu. If Barber is feeling off, then I think Silva will be able to take her down and spend lots of time in superior positions. If Barber fights a great fight, and is extra motivated to do well, she could make this pick look silly. But if I can get plus money fading her, after such a long stretch of inactivity, I’ll take it.

Best bet: Karine Silva moneyline (+150)

Nazim Sadykhov (+114) vs. Fares Ziam (-135)

This is an incredible match-up and it might steal the show on the “Prelims” side of things. Sadykhov got a big finish over Nikolas Motta in June during his homecoming fight at UFC Baku (see it here). Before that, he finished Ismael Bonfim after cracking him across the eyes with a kick. The only blemish on his UFC record is a majority draw with Viacheslav Borshchev. He also has a stoppage win over Terrance McKinney (see it here).

Ziam, on the other hand, was due to fight Kaue Fernandes at UFC Paris, but had to pull out because of a death in the family. That was almost as good a match-up as this one. Prior to that, he overwhelmed Mike Davis for a decision and, before that, he obliterated Matt Frevola with a knee from hell (see it here). After a rocky start to his UFC career, he’s now on a five-fight win streak.

The reach difference really jumps off the tale of the tape for this fight. Ziam will have six inches on Sadykhov. However, with so much of Sadykhov’s offense being kicks, he might be able to counter-balance that. Another big difference between these two is volume.

Sadykhov is a machine gunner, landing 5.55 significant strikes per-minute. Ziam is a sniper with 2.85 significant strikes. Both land 50 percent of those shots. You might be tempted to think that this means that Sadykhov is going to be landing a lot more on Ziam.

However, you have to look at the defense. Sadykhov absorbs 5.89 significant strikes per-minute, which is more than he lands (a red flag, for me). Ziam absorbs just 1.62. Sadkykhov has a 50 percent defense (not bad). Ziam has 64 percent (very good).

This gives me the picture of our machine-gunner, Sadykhov, breaking cover and firing in bursts, hoping the awe of his assault will hinder and harass his enemy. Meanwhile, our sniper, Ziam, is crouched behind some masonry waiting for his opportunity to strike. In this scenario, I like Ziam’s chances of delivering a kill shot before his position is blown away by rapid fire.

I’m really hoping for a good fight here and I enjoy both these fighters a lot. But, Ziam’s reach, shot selection and defense all makes me think he’s going to get the win here.

Best bet: Fares Ziam moneyline (-135)

UFC 323 Early ‘Prelims’

Marvin Vettori (-118) vs. Brunno Ferreira (-102)

Vettori came back from a two-year layoff in March, dropping a decision to Roman Dolidze. He then lost to Brendan Allen four months later. In both those fights, he failed to get out of first gear. He took a lot of damage in the Allen fight, also. It’s now been three years and nine months since his last UFC win (a decision over Dolidze).

Ferreira, conversely, has been very fun this year. In July, he submitted Jackson McVey with ease. Before that, he submitted Armen Petrosyan. Both those finishes came via armbar. Last year, he was submitted by Abus Magomedov, in a fight he was winning. Before that, he scored “Performance of the Night” bonuses for stunning knockouts on Dustin Stoltzfus and Phil Hawes. He also owns a knockout win over Gregory Rodrigues.

Ferreira is a fast starter … and that’s bad news for Vettori.

Vettori is immensely tough, and never been stopped (despite losing eight times), and that’s bad news for Ferreira.

I think Ferreira is going to have some early success against Vettori. But, my biggest question is, if he can’t finish Vettori early (which I doubt he will), then can he maintain that pressure down the stretch and will Vettori be able to come back from an early set-back and steal the victory? Vettori couldn’t do that against Allen, but Allen is very comfortable going the distance. Ferreira has never gone to a decision. And, with the extra size he has on him (muscle and otherwise) and how much energy he puts into his spinning attacks, I worry that he might get tired.

I have a feeling this is where Vettori pulls out of his skid and that he’s able to use his technical advantage to get himself over the finish line. But, I’m not confident enough in that to pick him outright. Instead, I’ll play the over, thinking Vettori either outpaces Ferreira down the stretch or Ferreira is able to hand out a drubbing that doesn’t result in a finish.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-154)

Edson Barboza (+235) vs. Jalin Turner (-290)

Barboza has lost his last two fights. Most recently, he was well beaten by Drakkar Klose in August. Klose took the fight to the veteran early and wore him down, making the Brazilian look every bit his age. Prior to that, Barboza lost to Lerone Murphy, also by unanimous decision. He looked a lot more competitive in that fight, though, despite it being against a bona fide contender. That Murphy bout was all the way back in May 2024.

Turner announced his retirement after Igancio Bahamondes submitted him in the first round (see it here). Before that he lost a weird fight to Renato Moicano. He thought he had scored a walk-off KO on ‘Money’ in that fight. That lapse in judgment gave Moicano the opportunity he needed to turn the tables on ‘Tarantula’ and earn a ground and pound win (see it here). Turner is 1-4 in his last five. That lone win was a first round KO over King Green.

I was kind of hoping that Turner, after coming out of a short-lived retirement, would be the underdog here against the popular Barboza. But it seems that Vegas, like me, thinks the Brazilian has really lost a step lately. It was quite surprising how hurt he got by Klose, who is a wrestle-first kind of fighter. Klose was also able to do a lot of damage in the clinch, a spot where Barboza has thrived in over the years.

Despite not being as potent as he used to be, Barboza still has a lot of drive and desire. Turner has opened himself up for questions about that with his inconsistent performances, big time mistake and wavering on whether he wants to do this or not.

In this situation, though, I’m favoring the physical advantage from Turner over a possible mental advantage from Barboza. Plus Barboza is nine years older and turning 40 next month. He’s also a lot smaller than the massive Turner, though Turner has rarely made opponents feel his size advantage in fights.

I think Turner is going to be content to kick box with Barboza, which — at this stage of their careers — feels like enough to squeak by. If Turner tried to grapple, I think he’d turn a close win into a lopsided win. Barboza has historically had superb takedown defense, but the age and size difference would really work against him in that respect.

Even if Turner is able to take Barboza down, I think he’ll have a tough time finishing him. That’s why I’m playing the over here, on a remarkably low 1.5 round total.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-105)

Iwo Baraniewski (-185) vs. Ibo Aslan (+154)

Baraniewski impressed on Contender Series with a 20-second knockout. That moved him to 6-0 on his professional career. However, the 27-year-old hasn’t appeared on any of the big shows in Europe. You’d think a good Polish fighter would have gotten a look in KSW or OKTAGON before now.

Aslan, on the other hand, lost a god awful fight to Billy Elekana in July. Aslan landed just 28 of 78 thrown sig. strikes in that fight. With over a third of those being leg kicks. Before that he was upset by Ion Cutelaba, losing by submission (see it here).

Aslan’s poor showings have resulted in him getting underdog odds against the newcomer. I’m going to jump on that. He’s not very good, sure, but he’s also got a lot of size over Baraniewski. And Baraniewski has done nothing but whoop someone on Contender Series. I think they book Contender Series to get viral finishes more than they do to put on close fights, so I’m taking that win with a huge grain of salt.

Aslan is probably fighting for his job here. Hopefully, that makes him actually do something.

Best bet: Ibo Aslan (+154)

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1150) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+650)

Abdul-Malik’s win over Cody Brundage was turned into a draw after an appeal by Brundage. That fight ended early after Brundage couldn’t continue because of a clash of heads. The appeal resulted in the Georgia commission correcting the on-the-night mistake of scoring an incomplete third round. Abdul-Malik was a -900 favorite in that fight. He didn’t look like it, though.

He was a -1350 favorite against Nick Klein in his previous fight and was knockied down on a spinning backfist before coming back and getting the technical knockout in the second round (see it here).

Trocoli hasn’t fought since November, 2024, where he lost to a Tresean Gore guillotine (see it here). Trocoli made his debut before that, getting floored by a Shara Bullet left hook (see it here).

I don’t like this fight booking at all. It seems like a lay-up for Abdul-Malik, despite him showing he’s got too many holes in his game to be getting the super prospect runway he’s currently on. I don’t think Trocoli is the man to expose any of those holes, though. If he can’t beat Gore, he can’t be Abdul-Malik.

I think Abdul-Malik touches him early and then shows off some of his scary ground-and-pound.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-180)

Muhammad Naimov (+220) vs. Mairon Santos (-270)

Naimov got past Bogdan Grad in June, winning by unanimous decision. Before that, he dominated Kaan Ofli. Those wins came after his submission loss to Felipe Lima (who he was up on the scorecards against). That was his only loss in UFC in six appearances (excluding Contender Series).

Santos looked good against Sodiq Yusuff in May, taking a unanimous decision. Before that he took a split decision over Francis Marshall, which many (including me) thought was a robbery. Before that, he won his TUF season with a knockout win over Kaan Ofli.

Naimov is a solid, but not spectacular, fighter who does everything well enough but just doesn’t seem to have that X factor that will push him over the top. I’m yet to figure out Santos. His win over Ofli was sensational, but that might be due more to Ofli’s ability than his.

Santos probably wins this, due to his striking. He’s an effective striker who has been very defensively sound so far in UFC (66 percent defense vs. significant strikes). He’s got a slight reach advantage on Naimov, who is very hittable. Naimov has a negative significant striking differential and his defense against significant strikes is 40 percent.

Naimov is going to need a lot of takedowns and control time to outweigh what will likely be a losing battle on the feet. Problem is, his takedown accuracy is only 36 percent. Santos was taken down three times by Marshall, but I think he might be able to avoid enough of them here to get the win.

Best bet: Mairon Santos moneyline (-270)

UFC 323 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan – Under 2.5 rounds (+600)

When it comes to this main event, you’ve got to take a big swing if you want long odds. I really think Dvalishvili is going to fight his kind of fight and drag Yan through an exhausting contest. I don’t think it’s impossible he gets a submission, though. Maybe he wants to punctuate his historic win with something more viral than his usual wins? Or maybe Yan tries to really explode out of bottom position and ends up putting himself into a bad spot? And, you know, it’s not totally impossible that Yan cracks Dvalishvili with an uppercut or a knee as Dvalishvili is shooting.

Alexandre Pantoja to win by Submission in Round 1 (+700)

I’m pretty confident that Pantoja is going to beat Van in the co-main. I think he’s really operating at a high level right now and that his wrestling and submissions game is going to be too much for the very fun volume striker. I’m going for this bet with belief in the “dry body” theory and that Pantoja can get the takedown on a charging Van and then do whatever the heck he wants to him on the ground.

Two-fight parlay: Terrance McKinney and Manuel Torres (+544)

Mckinney and Torres are both underdogs and are both facing primarily grapplers on Saturday. They are also both fantastic strikers who are capable of pulling out something spectacular. Both have hard assignments, too. But, if both win, I stand to get a nice little payout.

LIVE! Stream UFC 323 On ESPN+

BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Dec. 6, 2025, with an explosive (and final) ESPN+-streamed UFC 323 fight card. In UFC 323’s main event, relentless Georgian Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his belt against Russian striking phenom and former 135-pound roost-ruler, Petr Yan, in a high-stakes rematch that could reshape the 135-pound division. In UFC 323’s co-headliner, Brazilian Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, battles rising challenger, Joshua Van, for the 125-pound crown in a clash blending elite grappling and knockout power. All that and SO MUCH MORE!!!

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

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