Alas, the monkey is finally off of Tony Elliott and Virginia’s back with a dominant win over Virginia Tech, fully reflective of the talent discrepancy between the two rosters. We are now just days away from the Cavaliers clashing with a familiar foe in Charlotte — the Duke Blue Devils — with an ACC title and a chance to go to the College Football Playoffs on the line.
We’re splitting our game preview into two parts. Today, we cover the UVA defense vs. the Duke offense.
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John Rudzinski’s unit has undergone a night and day transformation since the beginning of the season. As expected, it took some time for the Wahoos secondary, filled with transfers, to acclimate to a new system. Once the communication woes diminished, Virginia has been utterly dominant against the pass. Meanwhile, the defensive front, even in the absence of Kam Robinson for several games, has been a major strength throughout the season. The ‘Hoos enter the ACC Championship game having allowed just 15.3 points and 242 yards per game over their last four, a stretch that includes that 34-17 victory over the Blue Devils.
Here is what they will be going up against:
Three Players to Watch
QB Darian Mensah
After a highly productive redshirt freshman season at Tulane, the California native took his talents further east to play for Manny Diaz and Duke. Mensah’s 2025 numbers are even more impressive — 67.5% completion percentage with 3,450 passing yards and 29 total touchdowns to go along with just four interceptions.
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As the stats indicate, the 6-foot-3, 205-pound signal caller is extremely accurate to all parts of the field, with good composure and some ability to make off-platform plays. As seen in the regular season matchup, Mensah can struggle under pressure, and has the tendency to take sacks with legitimate fumble issues (six lost fumbles in his two year college career).
RB Nate Sheppard
The 5-foot-10, 195-pound freshman ranks fifth in the conference with 865 rushing yards on an average of 5.5 per carry. He is a north-south runner with great contact balance and sudden burst that will produce chunk yardage and explosive plays.
Duke will use senior Anderson Castle to spell Sheppard, particularly in short yardage and goal line situations. Castle actually leads the team with 11 rushing touchdowns, including three a piece in matchups with North Carolina and NC State.
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However, with Sheppard’s ability to become a receiving option or help in pass protection, he will continue to get a bulk of the snap share. The Louisiana native has stuffed the stat sheet in pretty much every regular season conference game…except for the one against the Cavaliers.
OT Brian Parker
This Darian Mensah-led offense relies on good offensive line play, and this second team All-ACC nominee leads the way at the right tackle spot. He is touted as an NFL prospect on the interior for his hard-nosed style and presence in the zone run blocking scheme. While the ‘Hoos were living in the Duke backfield in the November meeting, tallying four quarterback sacks, expect Parker to be an x-factor this time around.
Two Keys for Virginia
Virginia’s linebackers vs Duke’s running game
While Kam Robinson’s production is irreplaceable, Maddox Mercellus did everything that could have been asked for against Virginia Tech in his spot. The former Eastern Kentucky Colonel began the contest with his first interception in orange and blue and finished with 9 total tackles and 0.5 sacks. He could almost be considered “Kam lite” with his sideline to sideline explosiveness and ability to plug gaps.
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Among Marcellus, the staple in James Jackson, and a healthy dose of Landon Danley and Caleb Hardy, the UVA defense is fully capable of neutralizing Duke’s ground attack and making them one-dimensional. Keep in mind that the Blue Devils are a bit more willing to rely on the passing attack if that is what the game entails, but those are not conditions for their most success (see: losses to Tulane and Georgia Tech).
Virginia’s secondary vs Duke’s downfield passing attack
Duke’s wide receiver room is filled with speed and they will want to use that to stretch the field vertically, if possible. Cooper Barkate, who leads the squad with 63 catches for 978 yards, and has eight receptions of 30+ this season, is the main guy to watch out for.
The good news is that with Rudzinski is very adept in scheming against these types of offenses with his base 4-2-5 personnel. For the first time in his four year tenure as the defensive coordinator, we can confidently say that he has the athletes to fully execute what he wants to do. Ja’Son Prevard, Jordan Robinson, and Christian Charles have all been major additions in the defensive backfield, possessing the ability to win competitive plays against these receivers.
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As long we see more of the same from this DB unit, and Rudzinski plays his cards right in deciding when to blitz, the ‘Hoos are in good shape in this regard.
One Prediction
I’m expecting Duke to come out with a lot more fire than they did a few weeks ago, but not enough to withstand these battle-tested Cavaliers. They say “it is hard to beat a team twice,” but to use another cliche, “football is a game of adjustments,” and I have my utmost faith in the UVA coaching staff, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With the program’s consistent, business-like approach, there is no reason to think they will not be prepared to compete in the most critical game of the season. Even if we see the best version of Duke, pound for pound, Virginia is the better football team.
‘Hoos 30, Blue Devils 20
