Iowa State rolls into Mackey Arena on Saturday morning to face what could be the tallest task of the 2025-26 season: Attempting to beat the number 1 team in the country on their home floor.
The Boilermakers (8-0) have put together an impressive non-conference resume thus far, including a win at Alabama and a 30-point trouncing of Texas Tech. They are the number 2 ranked team per KenPom, 5th best team per Bart Torvik, and the 3rd best per EvanMiya. The analytics love Purdue and they have the talent to support it.
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Notably, Purdue’s number 1 ranked offense (KenPom) features one of the best players in college basketball in Braden Smith. Smith, the 6’0″ Senior Point Guard, is on every watchlist imaginable and will almost certainly be a contender for the Naismith Trophy when the season ends in April.
Smith presents problems for Iowa State’s ultra-aggressive no-middle defense, which feasts on poor decision-making from opposing guards. The Senior boasts an astounding sense of court vision, seemingly finding passing lanes that don’t exist with ease AND flash.
Smith has been an eye test darling and the numbers back up his strong play. His assist rate is the 9th best in all of college basketball and he still manages to shoot 41% from 3 while playing 31 minutes a night, a number sure to go up as Purdue gets into conference play. Speaking of conference play, did I mention Smith was the Big Ten POY last year?
Iowa State’s defensive stockpile of Lipsey, Toure, and even Heise will all be tested whenever Smith is on the floor. The Cyclones will need to remain physical on-and-off the ball and work to push Smith away from the paint. His ability to dish is unlike anyone else in all of College Basketball and the numbers back that up. In Purdue losses last year his assist numbers are almost identical to when the Boilermakers won, while his scoring drops a full 5 points/game during losses. Can Lipsey (if healthy and playing) and Toure stay out of foul trouble and make life miserable for one of the best players in the country? Time will tell.
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Smith may be Purdue’s best player but the Boilermakers also sport an extremely well-constructed roster. The Boilermakers start four Seniors and one Sophomore and are loaded with experience. KenPom cites Purdue’s roster as the 23rd most experienced across the entire country and still has members from their most recent run to the National Championship game. Purdue’s offense has a battalion of 3-point shooters (6th best in the country) which will stretch Iowa State’s defense, including Fletcher Loyer (49%) who will battle with Milan Momcilovic for the role of best shooter in this game.
To make things even more difficult, Iowa State will have to also contend with Purdue Center, Oscar Cluff (Cyclone Legend) who sports the number 1 offensive rating in the country. Cluff is a dynamic passer for a guy that is 6’11” and 255 pounds and also averages a scorching 9 rebounds per game. Cluff’s running mate in the post is 6’9” Senior Trey Kaufman-Renn, who also is a menace on glass and regularly does his best Joshua Jefferson impression. Cluff and Kaufman-Renn are monsters on the offensive glass and each sport the 3rd and 5th respective offensive rebound rate across all of college basketball. Oh, and if you want to go to the bench, Purdue also has a 7’4” backup center that they deploy like a 3rd grade version of Zach Edey to eat up minutes and clog the lane. This team has no holes and creates a ridiculous amount of mismatches across the board.
Purdue is an astounding 49-3 in non-conference play since the start of 2021-22 and are 14-5 vs. top 15 teams since 2022 which is tops in all of college basketball. This is a group that is used to winning big games and does so often. But so is Iowa State, and the Cyclones are also battle-tested and skilled. Iowa State’s offense broke the school record for made 3s and points scored in a game on Wednesday against Alcorn State, a team that may have actually been made up of AI-generated players with the settings turned down to ROOKIE mode.
The way I see it, this game goes a few different ways: The first being that Iowa State’s guards are put in early foul trouble, Toure especially, and the Cyclones play from behind most of the game and are never able to get over the hump.
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The second is that Iowa State matches Purdue for most of the game but struggles to rebound and loses a close one.
And finally, the last is that Iowa State turns Purdue over, is the more physical team for 40 minutes, and squeaks by in a nail-biter. The truth is hidden somewhere in the middle of those predictions, so I like the Boilermakers by 6. There are very few outcomes that hurt Iowa State on a national level barring a blowout, and dropping a close one to the best team in college basketball does not move me.
