PHILADELPHIA — Negotiations can turn on a dime.
Consider three of the Phillies’ biggest free-agent signings in the past 15 years. The Phils covertly pursued Cliff Lee in December 2010. At least twice, Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock texted his regrets to Lee’s agent, Derek Braunecker, because of stalemates. But talks reignited each time and Lee signed a five-year, $120 million contract to return to Philadelphia.
The Phillies thought Bryce Harper was signing with San Francisco in late February 2019, only to learn the next day that he had agreed to a 13-year, $330 million contract with them. Two offseasons later, the Phils were frustrated with J.T. Realmuto, who at one point sought more than $200 million. Months later, he signed a five-year, $115.5 million deal.
The Winter Meetings begin next week in Orlando, Fla. Kyle Schwarber remains a free agent. Sources said more than a week ago that the parties weren’t close to a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan posted earlier this week, however, that he expects Schwarber to choose a team before the end of the Winter Meetings.
The expectation remains that Schwarber will re-sign with Philadelphia.
It’s the best fit. First, there is mutual interest. The Phillies love Schwarber, and Schwarber loves the Phillies. Second, the Phils have earmarked a ton of cash for the slugging DH.
Are there other teams interested in Schwarber? Yes. Are they as good of a fit? No.
Here’s what we’re hearing on a few teams that might be interested:
Reds
According to sources, Cincinnati remains in play for Schwarber, who grew up a Reds fan in nearby Middletown, Ohio. The Reds and Terry Francona would love his bat and leadership. The community would love him, too.
But the Reds still feel like long shots. Remember, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall said early last month that “our 2026 payroll will be around the same as our payroll from 2025.” According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Reds’ Opening Day payroll this year for the 26-man roster was just under $112 million and ranked 23rd in MLB. The 40-man roster payroll by season’s end was $116 million.
Schwarber should command around $30 million per season over four or five years. (It’s highly unlikely he takes a hometown discount.) Unless the Reds’ budget has significantly increased in the past month, it’s difficult to imagine them committing roughly a quarter of their payroll to a DH when they still need to fill multiple holes on the roster.
Maybe the Reds get creative with deferrals and/or opt-outs. Maybe they trade big league talent to clear payroll. But Schwarber wants a legitimate chance to win the World Series every year. Will the Reds keep spending in future years once they sign him? It seems unlikely, based on recent history.
Cubs
Schwarber won a World Series with Chicago in 2016. The Cubs need power in the lineup with Kyle Tucker expected to sign elsewhere.
There are reasons this makes sense.
But the Cubs need starting pitching and multiple relievers. It’s hard to see how they fill those needs, then drop $30 million on a DH … when prospects Owen Caissie and Moisés Ballesteros are pushing for playing time in 2026 and right fielder/DH Seiya Suzuki remains on the roster.
Also, the Cubs have gone over the competitive balance tax line only once in their history. So unless they go against their recent spending trend of staying as close as possible to the CBT threshold, Schwarber doesn’t seem likely.
Red Sox
Boston manager Alex Cora loves Schwarber. Loves him. But first baseman Pete Alonso makes more sense because he hits right-handed — the Sox have been lefty-heavy for at least three seasons — and is nearly two years younger than Schwarber, who turns 33 in March.
Alonso turns 31 on Sunday.
If Alonso returns to the Mets, the Sox would likely pivot to Schwarber because he is the best alternative. So perhaps there is something there.
Mets
Wouldn’t it be something for Mets owner Steve Cohen to drop a ton of cash on Schwarber and bring him to Queens? We’d hate to be in John Middleton’s office if that happened.
But the Mets’ priority remains Alonso. He not only hits home runs like Schwarber, but he also plays in the field. He is a lifelong Met and a fan favorite, too. If the Mets are pursuing Schwarber, it’s in case Alonso leaves. The cynic wonders if negotiations with Schwarber are designed to create leverage with Alonso.
Padres
San Diego needs a slugging DH/first baseman. In that sense, Schwarber is a perfect fit. But would the Padres put up the cash to get him? It seems unlikely.
Giants
San Francisco reportedly has checked in on Schwarber, but Rafael Devers is the Giants’ DH and their top prospect, Bryce Eldridge, is expected to play first base and DH, too. Where would Schwarber fit in? Perhaps if the Giants trade Eldridge for starting pitching, a path opens for him.
Orioles
Baltimore is reportedly interested, but does it make sense for a team that is so desperate for pitching help to drop a ton of cash on a DH?
Pirates
We’d be stunned if the Pirates actually signed Schwarber, despite their reported interest.
