MLB Hot Stove Report: Devin Williams to Mets, Ryan Helsley to Orioles, and a fun Red Sox trade

There was just a huge week of MLB moves and we’re going to recap all of them here.

Keep a close eye on the Rotoworld Player News page so you don’t miss any of the action and let’s take a trip around the league.

MLB Free Agent Tracker 2025-26: Latest signings, top players, and biggest offseason deals

Advertisement

Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.

1. 

   D.J. Short

   ,

Devin Williams, Mets Closer?

Devin Williams agreed to a three-year, $51 million contract with the Mets this past Monday and as of now, it looks like he could potentially be their new closer.

While that deal feels like a heavy commitment considering Williams’ bloated 4.79 ERA from last season, everything under the hood said he was still the same dominant reliever we’ve always known.

His 34.7% strikeout rate was just a shade below his career norms. It was supported by a 99th percentile whiff rate and 97th percentile chase rate. Those all sound great.

Advertisement

His fastball velocity fell just more than half a tick, but that was after it rose in 2024. It wound up in line with where it sat across 2022 and 2023. Based on his raw pitch movement and Stuff+ grades, there was practically no discernible difference between this and any recent seasons.

So, how did Williams’ season feel so catastrophic?

One big problem, he allowed an earned run in five of his first 14 appearances and sat with a 10.03 ERA on May 5th. Relief pitchers don’t have the same opportunity (or volume) as starters to erase a poor start to their season. When one gives up that many runs in quick succession, it will irreparably destroy their statline.

From that point on, Williams’ had a much more palatable 3.58 ERA over his final 50 1/3 innings.

Advertisement

Ironically, some of that inflated ERA wasn’t totally his fault. Mike Petriello wrote a great piece last month about the potential for a Williams bounceback and shared this stat:

So, Williams received no credit to his ERA for stranding those inherited runners, but got crushed for those other runs that scored after he left the game. Just like life itself, sometimes ERA is not fair.

Luckily for the Mets, they may have gotten a relative bargain on Williams’ contract due to last season’s poor results.

If his 2025 fell more in line with the rest of his career, he’d likely have been looking at deals similar to the five-year, $100 million ones that Josh Hader and Edwin Díaz signed over the last few years.

Advertisement

On top of that, this deal doesn’t have an opt-out built in for Williams if he’s able to recoup his lost value. It also includes $15 million of deferred money that pushes his luxury tax hit to just under $15 million per year. If he reverts to being an elite closer, this is a coup.

Will he be the Mets’ closer though? Reports indicate that the team is still hot on Díaz despite this signing.

Yet, it’s difficult to see them adding what could be the league’s most expensive contract for a reliever when they just inked Williams to what’s currently the third-most expensive by total value (and fourth most by prorated value after his deferrals).

Advertisement

Not that the Mets and Steve Cohen can’t do that, it’s just a question as to if they will. Still, it’s likely some other reliever is added to this mix.

Williams is trusted, but not infallible. He’s past 30 years old, has an 11.3% walk rate for his career, and a fastball that’s below average in terms of average velocity for right handed relievers.

A weird trend also developed for him this past season with an increased contact rate on pitches he threw out of the strike zone. For more on that, check out my recent YouTube video talking more about Williams.

As a two-pitch pitcher, it’s important that the fastball can still keep hitters honest. Luckily for him, the other of his two pitches may still be the nastiest and most unique in baseball.

If he is the Mets’ closer on opening day, there’s an argument he should be one of the first five closers off the board in fantasy drafts.

Advertisement

Ryan Helsley Redemption

In a similar boat to Williams and the Mets, the Orioles are betting on a Ryan Helsely rebound. After a catastrophic second half in Queens, he signed a two-year, $28 million contract to be the closer in Baltimore. The contract includes an opt-out after the first year.

Helsley came to the Mets as their supposed set-up man at the trade deadline and failed miserably. He allowed 16 earned runs over 20 innings (7.20 ERA) including at least one in nine of his first 16 appearances with the club before being banished to a low leverage role in September.

Some thought the bright lights of New York in a pennant race got to Helsley. He and the team harped on a pitch tipping issue as the root cause of his struggles. Regardless, he was un-pitchable.

Advertisement

Yet, his fastball still sat near triple digits and his slider had the same movement profile it always did. In terms of stuff, he was practically the same guy that proved himself as one of the best closers in the league with the Cardinals.

He says the pitch tipping is “ironed out” and if that’s the case, he’s a great bet to be an effective closer once again. Currently the fifth-highest paid reliever in terms of average annual value, the Orioles clearly think so too. He’s sure to shoot far past his ADP just outside the top-150 over the next month of drafts.

More Hot Stove Quick Hits

◆ Reigning KBO MVP Cody Ponce and the Blue Jays agreed to a three-year, $30 million deal. Ponce returns to the states with a litany of accolades overseas including the Choi-Dong Won Award (KBO equivalent of the Cy Young), MVP, and both single-season and single game strikeout record holder.

More importantly, Ponce’s fastball ticked up to an average around 96 MPH and he developed a new kick-change that should help him as a right-handed pitcher against left-handed hitters next season. Plus velocity, a deep repertoire, and a potential back-end rotation spot make him an intriguing deep-sleeper.

Advertisement

◆ The Reds brought their closer Emilio Pagán back on a one-year, $10 million deal with an option to double up after this year.

Pagán sneakily struck out 30% of the batters he faced last season thanks to a fastball that sat around 96 mph with plus ride and nasty splitter. He’s a good bet to be a solid closer once again.

◆ Starter Johan Oviedo is heading to the Red Sox in exchange for corner outfielder Jhostynxon García to the Pirates and a handful of other prospects going in each direction of this trade.

Oviedo has an intriguing fastball, slider combo, just without the ability to ever consistently throw strikes. If his command clicks, he has true mid-rotation upside.

Advertisement

García (aka ‘The Password’) was blocked by Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu in Boston despite some exciting tools. There’s a chance he could have an outfield spot to call his own in Pittsburgh at some point next season and if so, there’s real power upside in his bat.

◆ Anthony Kay signed with the White Sox as a depth option with his ground ball oriented arsenal and the Angels brought Alek Manoah in for another shot to regain his past form.

◆ The Rays signed Cedric Mullins to a one-year deal that could theoretically cut into speedster Chandler Simpson’s playing time.

◆ World Series hero Miguel Rojas is back with the Dodgers for a well deserved retirement tour.

Advertisement

◆ Trade rumors have intensified for Joe Ryan, Luis Robert Jr., and Freddy Peralta. There could be a lot of action at the Winter Meetings this week. Make sure to keep up the Rotoworld Player News page so you don’t miss any of the action plus live stream and video content here all next week!