UFC 323 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In the main event of the final ESPN pay-per-view (PPV) era, UFC Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, attempts to complete a historic fourth title defense in a single calendar year when he rematches former champion Petr Yan.
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Regardless, we have a weekly series here at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so tell us your most confident UFC 323 betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC 323 odds here).
Recap: We were off last week, but at UFC Qatar, our “Weekend Lock” didn’t cash as Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev didn’t knock out Raffael Cerqueira … he tapped him instead (watch highlights). Ugh.
Time to keep on, keeping on below:
On the fun UFC 323 “Prelims,” Terrance McKinney collides with Chris Duncan in what promises to be pure chaos for as long as it lasts.
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That’s exactly why this week, I’m locking in: McKinney to Win by KO/TKO/DQ OR Duncan to Win by Submission at +100 (Alternate Method of Victory Double Chance).
Here’s why:
McKinney has one of the most outrageous finishing profiles on UFC’s entire roster. He holds a 100 percent finish rate as every single one of his professional wins has come inside the distance. He owns eight knockouts and nine submissions, and he wastes zero time getting after it as he’s only been out of the first round five times in 24 fights.
When McKinney fights, violence happens early — win or lose.
On the other side, Duncan is no slouch in the fire. He brings seven knockouts and three submissions, but here’s the key note: both of his UFC finishes have come by submission, not strikes (watch highlights). He’s proven he can stay composed in wild exchanges, drag a fight deeper, and capitalize once chaos turns into exhaustion.
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Stylistically, the dynamic is simple: McKinney is the fastest starter in the division. He blitzes, hunts heads and overwhelms opponents before they can settle (like this). If Duncan can’t survive the early storm, the (technical) knockout side of this bet hits clean. But, if he does survive — and he’s shown the durability and grappling to do so — McKinney’s cardio tends to dip, creating prime opportunities for Duncan to snatch the neck or force a scramble-based tap.
Either outcome fits the exact finishing conditions we’re playing.
What could go wrong?
While McKinney is known for his explosive knockout power, he’s also a seriously underrated grappler with nine career submissions. If he decides to lean into that side of his game — or if a scramble ends in his favor — he could win by submission, which does not cash this ticket. There’s also the ever-present chance that both fighters swing in a direction we don’t expect in such a volatile matchup.
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Still, given how both men fight and how both men finish, McKinney KO/TKO/DQ or Duncan by submission at +100 is one of the safer ways to approach this guaranteed barnburner at UFC 323.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter user is riding with McKinney to win:
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Terrance McKinney To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +300
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Terrance McKinney To Win By Submission: +350
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Terrance McKinney To Win By Decision: +2000
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Chris Duncan To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +175
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Chris Duncan To Win By Submission: +300
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Chris Duncan To Win By Decision: +1200
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Fight To Not Go The Distance: -1600
LIVE! Stream UFC 323 On ESPN+
BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Dec. 6, 2025, with an explosive (and final) ESPN+-streamed UFC 323 fight card. In UFC 323’s main event, relentless Georgian Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his belt against Russian striking phenom and former 135-pound roost-ruler, Petr Yan, in a high-stakes rematch that could reshape the 135-pound division. In UFC 323’s co-headliner, Brazilian Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, battles rising challenger, Joshua Van, for the 125-pound crown in a clash blending elite grappling and knockout power. All that and SO MUCH MORE!!!
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
