The Virginia Cavaliers (7-1) are set to face off against the Dayton Flyers (7-2) on Saturday afternoon in Charlotte, North Carolina. This will be the third neutral-site game for Virginia in its early season. The first two took place at the Greenbrier in West Virginia, resulting in a split: a victory over Northwestern, followed by their first and only loss of the season against a solid Butler Bulldogs team.
Ryan Odom and the Cavaliers are coming off their most impressive showing this season with a commanding 88-69 victory over the Texas Longhorns in Austin, pulling their weight for the ACC in this year’s version of the ACC vs. SEC Challenge—a dominant showing on both sides of the floor in their first road test of the season. Freshman Chance Mallorry led all scorers with 16 points, followed by Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grunloh with 15 apiece, with Malik Thomas and Jacari White also cracking double figures—another true team effort for Virginia to lead them to victory, a theme so far this year.
The ‘Hoos have their eyes set on Dayton now, as the Flyers are not one to overlook. Anthony Grant has yet again assembled a respectable team with a couple of stars on offense that are sure to keep Dayton in this one. Some names to know going into this one are senior guard Javon Bennett, who averages 16 points per game; junior guard De’Shayne Montgomery, who averages 15.8 points per game; and 7-foot sophomore Amael L’etang, who averages 13 points per game.
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Just last week, Dayton went wire-to-wire with the ninth-ranked BYU Cougars in the ESPN Events Invitational in Kissimmee, Florida. They held a 36-30 lead going into the half, and then BYU erupted for 53 points in the second half to claim an 83-79 victory, but not without a massive scare.
To be victorious in Charlotte, Virginia must:
Stay the course on the offensive boards
Dayton rebounds very well as a team on defense, only allowing 8.1 offensive rebounds per game. Their leading rebounder, Amael L’Etang, grabs 6.6 boards per game, but everyone who touches the floor is expected to crash on a missed shot. Virginia currently averages 14 offensive rebounds per game, which has led to plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities for the ‘Hoos. If Virginia can come close to their average here and make Dayton play five to ten more defensive possessions in this game, I like the Cavaliers’ chances of coming out on top.
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Take and make from the charity stripe
Virginia gets to the line often, and Dayton has been generous in allowing teams to get there, as teams shoot 22.8 free throws per game against the Flyers. Virginia went to the line plenty against Texas, but shot below 70%, making only 20 of 29 attempts. They have been very streaky from the line this season, but that doesn’t stop them from being aggressive and drawing fouls, as 26 free throw attempts rank 42nd in the nation, but making under 18 of those 26 will not suffice in close games, as this one might be one of those.
My prediction:
Virignia enters this game as a 5.5-point favorite according to the oddsmakers in Vegas. I believe Virignia will stay hot and add another one in the win column when this is all said and done. Virginia has too many weapons on offense right now, and they all seem to be gaining more confidence as each game goes on. Dayton will have to gameplan for every single foot that steps on the floor for Virignia on offense, as they are all serious threats to score the basketball.
Virginia 83 Dayton 72
