Over the previous three offseasons, the free-agent market has revolved around three unmistakable titans of the sport. Aaron Judge in 2022. Shohei Ohtani in 2023. Juan Soto in 2024.
Kyle Tucker doesn’t carry the same towering aura. At the same time, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who doesn’t view the 28-year-old outfielder as the No. 1 free agent in this year’s class or consider him a shoo-in to land one of the largest deals in baseball history.
Tucker’s game doesn’t announce itself with thunder or spectacle. He isn’t the type to wow you with a single, signature tool. But what he does provide is a rare level of all-around proficiency, even with his defense slipping since he won a Gold Glove in 2022.
It’s why he’s earned All-Star selections in each of the past four years and ranks 10th among position players in WAR (per FanGraphs) since the beginning of 2021. The nine players ahead of him are perennial All-Stars and MVP candidates, not to mention some of the highest-paid players in baseball. (Seven of them have signed contracts worth more than $275 million in guaranteed money.)
Most fWAR among position players, since 2021
1. Aaron Judge: 42.8
2. Shohei Ohtani: 31.6 (additional 12.8 fWAR as a pitcher)
3. Juan Soto: 30.7
4-T. Francisco Lindor: 29.8
4-T. José Ramírez: 29.8
6. Trea Turner: 28.2
7. Freddie Freeman: 27.0
8. Bobby Witt Jr.: 26.7
9. Mookie Betts: 25.2
10. Kyle Tucker: 23.4
Tucker doesn’t possess elite raw power like Judge or fellow free agent Kyle Schwarber. From 2021-25, he ranked 55th in barrel rate (11.0%) and 78th in hard-hit rate (44.2%) among the 231 hitters with at least 1,000 batted balls. His average bat speed (72.0 mph) since bat tracking began during the 2023 campaign is exactly average.
He isn’t particularly speedy with his legs, either. He ranked in the 34th percentile or lower in Sprint Speed in each of the past four years, averaging 26.5 ft/sec in 2025.
But despite all of that, he’s still one of the best power-speed combo players in the game.
Tucker has produced 134 home runs and 105 stolen bases over the past five years, recording three 20-20 campaigns and coming close to a 30-30 season in 2023. He was one of 10 players to go 100-100 in that timeframe.
When it comes to his bat-to-ball skills, Tucker rates well but isn’t exactly Luis Arraez or Steven Kwan. He posted the 34th-lowest strikeout rate (15.0%) from 2021-25 (minimum 1,000 PAs) and had a 20.2% whiff rate this past season — good, but not elite.
Again, though, he looks more impressive when you consider the whole rather than looking at each skill on an individual basis.
The vast majority of contact-oriented hitters don’t slug like Tucker, whose isolated power was .237 in the aforementioned span.
Over the past five years, the median ISO was just .119 among the 34 hitters who had at least 1,000 plate appearances and a strikeout rate of 15% or lower. Including Tucker, only four also had an ISO of .200 or higher.
It’s fitting that the closest the unassuming Tucker gets to the elite ranks is easily the least glamorous trait we’re discussing today: his superb batting eye.
In 2025, he ranked in the 98th percentile in chase rate (17.6%) and the 96th percentile in walk rate (14.6%).
Hitters who draw plenty of walks often strike out frequently as well — it’s a natural consequence of being selective and working deep counts. But not Tucker. It’s just another way he is a rarity in today’s game.
Of the 27 hitters with 1,000 PAs and a walk rate of 12% or higher from 2021-25, Tucker had the lowest K-rate in the group. Just three others even had a K-rate below 20%.
To quickly recap, Tucker checked off all of these boxes from 2021-25:
Of course, free agency is also about projecting forward, which brings us to the last major factor driving Tucker’s free-agent value.
We’ve already covered Tucker’s impressive résumé, which also includes an .878 OPS and 145 OPS+ since the beginning of 2021. While sustaining that level of production would undoubtedly make him a major asset for his next team, it’s fair to wonder if Tucker has even more to offer.
The 2024 campaign was shaping up to be a career year for Tucker, but he fouled a ball off his right shin in early June and missed over three months with a small fracture after initially being diagnosed with a contusion. He finished the year with a personal-best .993 OPS and 179 OPS+ in 78 games for the Astros, recording 23 homers, 11 steals and 4.2 fWAR along the way.
Extrapolate that pace over 150 games and it comes out to 44 home runs, 21 steals and 8.1 fWAR to go with that .993 OPS. Those are superstar numbers.
It was a similar story in 2025. While he didn’t miss as much time, injuries took their toll in the second half and put a damper on his production after he recorded 17 homers, 20 stolen bases, a .931 OPS and 3.8 fWAR over 83 games through the end of June.
Playing home games at Wrigley Field didn’t help, either. Traded to the Cubs last December, Tucker had seven homers and a .747 OPS in Chicago, compared to 15 dingers and a .923 OPS on the road. The stark home/road splits gives teams reason to believe Tucker could boost his production in a new setting, much like Cody Bellinger did after being traded from the Cubs to the Yankees last winter.
Tucker also has youth on his side. He’ll turn 29 in January.
So there you have it. Four ingredients, each a key part of the recipe that makes Tucker the king of this free-agent crop.
