UFC 323 signals the end of the pay-per-view era, but possibly the continuation of two of the most dominant championship reigns of this era.
Known for his relentless pace in the cage, headliner Merab Dvalishvili has taken on a schedule to match, aiming to become the first UFC fighter ever to successfully defend a title four times in a calendar year. He handpicked former bantamweight champion Petr Yan as his challenger and now all he has to do to make history is the same thing he’s done the last 14 times he’s walked to the octagon: Win.
Advertisement
Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja likely won’t catch division legend Demetrious Johnson’s record of 11 UFC title defenses, but he has the longest active streak among current champions and can make it five straight if he fends off 125-pound wunderkind Joshua Van.
Back in 2021, Pantoja had a 24-5 record and was well into his ascent up the flyweight contender ladder. Van? He didn’t make his pro debut until October of that year, but he’s made up for lost time with 17 fights in four years, including a flawless 2025 campaign that saw him defeat longtime contender Brandon Royval to earn his shot. With a win, Van would become the second-youngest champion in UFC history, behind only Jon Jones.
Could we see the landscape of two divisions change dramatically heading into 2026?
What: UFC 323
Advertisement
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Dec. 6. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX, followed by a four-fight preliminary card on ESPN2, ESPN+, Disney+, and FX at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Merab Dvalishvili (1, P4P-3) vs. Petr Yan (5)
Alexandre Pantoja (1, P4P-4) vs. Joshua Van (2)
I’m bundling the top 2 fights together because I’m going to say something that hasn’t been the most popular take heading into this card: Petr Yan and Joshua Van are live dogs.
Advertisement
Don’t get me wrong, it’s easy to picture how Merab Dvalishvili and Alexandre Pantoja get it done. Dvalishvili utilizes his ultra wrestling even more effectively than in his first fight with Yan and just overwhelms him, and Pantoja uses a similar tactic, deftly dodging a firefight with Van by dragging him to the mat and breaking out his world-class jiu-jitsu. Completely realistic scenarios, very safe bets if you’re into that sort of thing.
Here’s how Yan wins: Stay on his feet (duh) long enough to land a few key strikes, string together some combinations, and do just enough damage to steal rounds. Consider neither he nor Dvalishvili are famously fast starters, so the first round is up for grabs and after that, a challenger like Yan just has to confidently take two of the next four. So simple!
We’re nitpicking here, but Dvalishvili has been hit during this championship run, with O’Malley and Sandhagen both having their moments in ultimately losing efforts. It’s also true that Dvalishvili’s standup is vastly improved since his first dance with Yan, so he won’t be a sitting duck even if his takedown spamming fails to yield immediate results. Yan has to be wary that he’s not the one caught off-guard by a looping shot out of nowhere.
I also can’t discount the stress Dvalishvili has put on his body defending his title three times already this year and now having to go through a fourth camp. Saturday will actually be his third five-rounder in six months. If anyone can pull this off, it’s Dvalishvili, but he is still human (we assume).
Advertisement
Rematches are never guaranteed to go the same way as the first fight, so Yan has hope on his side. Unfortunately for him, sapping hope from his opponents is Dvalishvili’s specialty.
Van I like more, even if you could argue the deck is even more stacked against him. When Pantoja was beating guys like Manel Kape and Brandon Royval on his way up the flyweight rankings in 2021, Van was just making his pro debut. Pantoja was nearly 30 fights into his career by the time Van took his first fighting steps. The experience gap is enormous.
You know what Van does great, though? Pressure and volume. Lots of pressure and volume. When Pantoja has to stand and bang, he’s more than willing, but he’s escaped a few sticky situations in spite of himself (I still think he lost the most recent Brandon Moreno fight). I’ll say it now: Pantoja cannot outpoint Van on the feet. If he invites a slugfest, that opens the door for Van to catch him or simply take him to the scorecards, which could easily tilt Van’s way after five rounds of back-and-forth striking.
Pantoja’s grappling should make the difference, but Van has proven difficult to hold down. And remember that experience gap we mentioned? That also means Pantoja is considerably older and shopworn than Van. As incredible as his title run has been, I’m getting T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao vibes here. Dillashaw was viewed as a future contender whose title opportunity was coming maybe a few fights too early. Then he dominated Barao and the rest is history.
Advertisement
No one should be surprised if Van does the same.
In typical cowardly fashion, I’m sticking with the champs to retain, because I don’t think Pantoja is close to shot yet and Merab is Merab. And Still and And Still again, both by decision.
Pick: Dvalishvili and Pantoja
Brandon Moreno (5) vs. Tatsuro Taira (9)
All week I’ve been hearing Brandon Moreno is the underdog against Tatsuro Taira and that’s just wacky to me.
Is there some cruddy Moreno performance I’m not aware of that serves as an indication the game has passed him by? Or has Taira just been that impressive? Certainly, Taira has all the makings of a future champion, but I’m not convinced his all-around game is where it needs to be yet to crack the top 5 of the flyweight division. Moreno has him beat on the feet and it’s unlikely Taira’s grappling is so superior he can just hold “The Assassin Baby” down for three rounds.
Advertisement
Then again, maybe Taira can slow Moreno enough to frustrate him and turn this into a grind. As I said above, youth is an asset, and Taira is a top-shelf athlete. Moreno is no slouch, though, and even given his lengthy history of grueling battles, he’s still just 32. McLovin forever!
Moreno is way too good to be outgunned by a more limited fighter, so I have him comfortably winning a decision and sending Taira and company back to the drawing board. His day will come.
Pick: Moreno
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Age and experience vs. youth and athleticism. I’m sensing a trend with this main card.
Henry Cejudo is one of the most accomplished combat sports athletes of all time. Two-division UFC champion. Holds a win (controversial, perhaps) over Demetrious Johnson, one of the 10 greatest MMA fighters ever. At 21, an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling at the 2008 Beijing Olympics; Payton Talbott was nine years old when that happened.
Advertisement
Talbott has grown before our very eyes. His loss to Raoni Barcelos was humbling and Talbott appeared to take all the right lessons from it as he won a convincing, mature decision over the dangerous Felipe Lima in his next outing. Prior to that, he exhibited fierce finishing instincts, which could return as he stalks a smaller, slower Cejudo.
It’s not fun writing legends off and Cejudo has all the tools to win this fight. But the Song Yadong bout wasn’t encouraging for as long as it lasted and seeing Cejudo openly embrace his retirement is a red flag as far as how motivated he actually is to go out on a win. Cejudo has nothing left to prove in the cage and he knows it. Is it possible to flip the switch one last time?
If Cejudo were filled with his usual boom and bluster, I would actually like his chances more, because I’d believe that he believes he can still compete with the best. Instead, this feels like a passing of the torch, and Cejudo has already loosened his grip.
Pick: Talbott
Advertisement
Jan Blachowicz (T6) vs. Bogdan Guskov (11)
Sorry, Bogdan Guskov, nobody looks good fighting Jan Blachowicz.
Guskov rocked an on-point Agent 47 look this week and that might be as stylish as it gets for him as he’s going to have little luck imposing his will on Blachowicz. No one questions Guskov’s power and if he can land early, he could add Blachowicz to his list of highlights. Big “if” there.
Blachowicz has gone 15 minutes with Alex Pereira and lived to tell about it, so if he can defuse “Poatan,” what chance does Guskov have to land the big kibosh? No, he’s not the same fighter, so I don’t mean to be reductive, but Pereira is just one example of a high-level hitter that Blachowicz has dragged into the mud. Guskov is vulnerable to takedowns and if Blachowicz doesn’t feel like his Polish Power is popping, he’ll happily put Guskov on his back.
Advertisement
Maybe Guskov can copy Carlos Ulberg’s blueprint and win a point fight, but more likely he’ll go for broke, which will prove to be his undoing.
Blachowicz by submission.
Pick: Blachowicz
Preliminaries
Manuel Torres def. Grant Dawson
Terrance McKinney def. Chris Duncan
Maycee Barber (8) def. Karine Silva
Fares Ziam def. Nazim Sadykhov
Marvin Vettori def. Brunno Ferreira
Jalin Turner def. Edson Barboza
Iwo Baraniewski def. Ibo Aslan
Mansur Abdul-Malik def. Antonio Trocoli
Muhammad Naimov def. Mairon Santos
