FRISCO, Texas — The Dallas Cowboys needed a break over the weekend.
They just finished a span of four games in 18 days with their 44-30 loss to the Detroit Lions on Thursday, which ended a three-game win streak and dropped them to 6-6-1 on the season. Bodies were sore. Minds were worn.
“I do think it’s good for our players to get their bodies back right,” coach Brian Schottenheimer said as preparations began for Sunday’s home game against the 5-8 Minnesota Vikings (8:20 p.m. ET).
While players rested, the coaches went through a self-scout process to seek out trends in their offensive and defensive schemes, even though they won three of their past four games. The organization’s analytics department was given another task: figure out the Cowboys’ playoff chances.
ESPN Analytics puts the Cowboys’ postseason chances at 10% with Week 14 complete.
While there is a way the Cowboys can make the playoffs even if they don’t win their final four games, they would need as much help as a toddler driving an 18-wheeler.
So let’s examine the premise that the Cowboys must win out against the Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders and New York Giants.
That would put them at 10-6-1 on the season but needing help to make the playoffs in Schottenheimer’s first year.
What else needs to happen to lock up a playoff spot?
Win the NFC East
The easiest path to the playoffs is to win the division. The Philadelphia Eagles are in position to become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since the 2003-04 Eagles, but things have not gone swimmingly for the defending Super Bowl champions.
This seems like 2023 all over again for the Eagles. With Monday’s loss to the Chargers, they have dropped three in a row and are 8-5. The offense has been stagnant. The defense is missing tackle Jalen Carter.
But the schedule seems to favor the Eagles. Their final four games are against the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11), Buffalo Bills and Commanders (3-9) twice. All the Eagles have to do is split their last four games and they would win the division.
Continue the free fall and lose three more games, and the Cowboys would win the NFC East and keep the no-repeat champ streak intact by winning out.
Earn a wild-card berth
There will be three wild-card spots in the NFC. At 6-6-1, the best the Cowboys can do is 10 wins. Their conference record is 3-5-1, so they would be 6-5-1 if they win out. So how does Dallas stack up against the other teams in the NFC wild-card race?
The San Francisco 49ers (9-4) are 8-2 in the conference. The Green Bay Packers (9-3-1), whom the Cowboys tied earlier this year, are 7-2-1. The Chicago Bears (9-3) are 6-3. The Carolina Panthers (7-6) are 5-3. The Lions (8-5) are 5-4, as are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6).
The Cowboys have lost to the Bears, Panthers and Lions. So if those teams end up with a tie in one of their final games, they would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The NFC West looks poised to get three teams into the playoffs.
The Los Angeles Rams top the division at 10-3 and currently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Their last two games are against the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) and Arizona Cardinals (3-10). Win one of those two, and they have 11 wins.
The Seattle Seahawks are also 10-3. This week, they play the Indianapolis Colts (8-5), who lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season (Achilles) on Sunday. Win that and they have 11 wins.
The Niners’ next two games are against the Tennessee Titans (2-11) and Colts. Win those, and they are at 11 wins.
So give the NFC West three playoff teams.
The NFC North is in the lead for at least one wild-card spot. The Packers lead the division, followed by the Bears and Lions.
After playing the 3-10 Browns this week, the Bears close with the Packers, Niners and Lions. The Cowboys need the Bears to lose their last three to get the wild-card nod over the Bears.
The Lions play the Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6), Vikings and Bears. The Cowboys need the Lions to lose two of their last four but also beat the Bears, should Chicago beat Cleveland.
The NFC South is a two-team fight between the 7-6 Buccaneers and 7-6 Panthers. They play each other in two of the last three weeks. So one team will have seven losses.
And that could saves the final wild-card spot for the Cowboys — should they win their final four games and get all kinds of help.
None of that matters to Schottenheimer right now.
“At the end of the day we’re focused on beating Minnesota,” Schottenheimer said. “We’re going to do what we got to do, and if you start looking too far ahead of, ‘Ok, if this happens, if that happens,’ you’re going to drive yourself crazy. And I’m not going to do that.”
