When: Wednesday December 10 – 7:00 PM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: ACCN
Opponent: Liberty Flames (Conference USA)
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 84-74 / NC State 83-74
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Wolfpack Snapshot:
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NET Ranking: NET 42, 8th in ACC Conf NET rankings
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NET performance: Q1 (1-2), Q2 (1-1), Q3 (1-0), Q4 (3-0)
Wolfpack Season So Far:
Coach Wade in the Asheville post-game interview:
“We’re giving bench guys opportunities as we pare down this thing and figure out who our best groupings are.
We haven’t hit our stride. We just haven’t found the right combinations yet.
We’ve got good players. We’ve got good pieces. It’s on us to fit everything together and have everything play a lot tighter and better than we have.
Our defense is somewhat improved, but that’s not a high bar to clear. But when we play our defensive lineup our offense is a little clangy. We’ve got to find a balance.”
Wolfpack Player Notes:
Darrion Williams was reported as having a sore shoulder in the Asheville game
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Opponent Overview:
Liberty is projected to finish 1st in Conference USA.
The Flames finished the 2024-25 season at 28-7 and 13-5 in Conference USA. Liberty swept both the regular season and conference tournament title in the program’s second year in Conference USA. They got blasted by Oregon 81-52 in the first round of the NCAAT.
For many teams, last year’s results don’t matter, but the Flames return three starters (Cleveland, Metheny, and Porter), all of whom finished last season on the all-conference team and are on the ’25-’26 preseason all-conference team.
|
Team |
PPG |
PPG-OPP |
FG% |
3PT% |
3PT-M |
Reb |
Ast |
TO |
ST |
BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NC State |
93.6 |
76.6 |
51.7% |
42.20% |
11.3 |
37.1 |
16.7 |
10.4 |
7.9 |
3 |
|
Liberty |
84.8 |
64.4 |
54.7% |
43.10% |
13 |
32 |
18.8 |
8.5 |
6.8 |
3.6 |
Opponent Snapshot:
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Liberty is leading Conference USA in FG%, 3PT%, Assists, and Assist/Turnover ratio
Their Season So Far:
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Kentucky Christian (D2) 98-57 – Blowout
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Charleston (KP #184) 90-75 – Liberty up 5 at the half, scored 51 in the second including 10 3PT shots.
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Florida Atlantic (KP #116) 88-68 – Blowout
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Carolina (NCCAA) 98-46 – Blowout
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Vermont (KP #198) 79-73 – Liberty led by 8-10 most of the game.
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Towson (KP #144) 69-72 – Tight game, Liberty led by 1 at the half. Neither team could hit 3PT shots. It was a 1-point game with 10 seconds left, Towson hit a couple of free throws, Liberty’s last second 3PT attempt was blocked.
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Bradley (KP #122) 64-74 – Bradley was up as much as 21 in the first half and led by 10 at the half. Liberty closed it to 5 coming out of the half, but Bradley pushed it back to double digits and stayed there most of the second half.
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Coppin St (KP #364) 92-50 – Blowout
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*** DANGER DANGER DANGER ***
Liberty is very good from 3PT
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They have shot 39.1% or better as a team in every game but one, including making 16-30 (53%) last Saturday.
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They have made at least 10 in 6 of 8 games so far.
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They hit 10 in one half against Charleston.
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They have attempted 232 3PT shots on the season (averaging 29 per game), for comparison, NC State has attempted 187.
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They have two starters shooting better than 50% from 3PT
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The Wolfpack is terrible at defending 3PT shooters as shown below
Opponent 3PT Shooting
Player Notes
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Zach Cleveland – Conference USA preseason all-conference
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Kaden Metheny – Conference USA preseason all-conference
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Colin Porter – Conference USA preseason all-conference
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Brett Decker, Jr is 2nd in Conference USA in scoring, and first in 3PT%, 3PT made per game
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Zach Cleveland is 1st in Conference USA in rebounding, assists
|
Player |
Class |
Pos |
Height |
Weight |
PPG |
3PT% |
3PTApg |
REB |
ASST |
STL |
BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brett Decker Jr |
SO |
G |
6’3″ |
190 |
19.6 |
58.7% |
7.9 |
2.9 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
Kaden Metheny |
GR |
G |
5’11” |
170 |
14.1 |
37.9% |
7.3 |
3 |
3.1 |
0.6 |
0 |
|
JJ Harper |
RS SR |
G |
6’5″ |
200 |
11.4 |
52.6% |
2.4 |
3.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1 |
|
Zach Cleveland |
SR |
F |
6’7″ |
220 |
10.2 |
0.0% |
0.4 |
9 |
8.4 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
|
Josh Smith |
RS SR |
F |
6’9″ |
225 |
5.3 |
0.0% |
0.1 |
2 |
0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
What To Watch For
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Liberty’s Brett Decker Jr (#4) is another one of these dangerous shooters (see Patrick, Pope, Hall, Overton) that have bombed the Wolfpack recently. He is averaging 58.7% from 3PT! He has shot 8-10, 5-10, 5-7, 5-7, 5-6, and 6-10 from 3PT in games this season. I have a bad feeling about this guy. Harper also shoots above 50% but has only attempted 19 on the season. Metheny can also get hot, shoots 37.9%, he went 4-6 in their previous game.
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Liberty’s Zach Cleveland (#3) is their Darrion Williams equivalent. (and they say exactly the opposite about Williams) He’s about the same size, but he’s averaging nearly a triple double with 10.2 ppg, 9 rebounds, and 8.4 assists. He is 6th in the country in assist rate.
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Liberty Offense – KP ranks them 5th in 3PT% and 10th in 2PT%.
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Liberty Profile – KP says they are 7th in experience and 364th in height.
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Wolfpack Rotation – Last game 11 players played in the first half, but 2 didn’t play at all in the second, and 2 others only got 3 minutes each. Possible Players in the Doghouse: McNeil, previously a starter, played his fewest minutes of the season (18). Arceneaux had been trending upward in minutes, but only played 8 – second fewest on the team.
Prediction: Miraculously, the Wolfpack’s defense cools off the sizzling Flames and simultaneously, the Pack’s shooters heat up from the arc. ‘It’s all about those treys’ Pack wins 80-69.
