Ok, I haven’t been as vigilant about these updates as I’d like to have been. But ahead of the new year and ahead of conference play for the Tar Heels, it’s as good a time as any for a renewed commitment. Courtney Banghart’s UNC women’s basketball team has had an excellent start to the season, sitting at 9-2 with their only losses to two of the best teams in the country. After a preseason ranking of #11 that a lot of UNC fans thought was a little rich, they’ve managed to justify it, and now, a month into the season, see themselves ranked #12, the highest-ranked team in the ACC. Their first conference game won’t be an easy one, though, as they prepare to host #22 Louisville on Sunday in a game that might have serious implications for the conference for how early it’s going to be. Here’s a look at what they’ve been up to and what the team has looked like so far.
It was no secret that the Heels were going to have a tough nonconference schedule this year, with an exhibition game against South Carolina and early games against UCLA (currently #4) and Texas (#2). The results of those games have all been similar: competitive first halves before UNC ran out of steam and lost by 15-20 (well, they ended up losing by 9 to South Carolina, but they were down by as much as 20). To be fair to the Heels, they haven’t been fully healthy all year, but the story has kind of seemed to be that they’re not quite ready to seriously compete at the highest level of the sport just yet. They’re closer than they have been in Banghart’s tenure, and there have been encouraging signs, but it is just the reality of the sport that there’s not a lot of room at the top.
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That doesn’t mean there has been nothing to celebrate, though. The Heels already have an impressive win against Kansas State, a historically excellent program with a win against ranked Ole Miss this year, and it was barely even competitive — in the Cancun Challenge event, the Heels led by 18 at halftime before cruising to an 85-73 win. And against a pretty solid South Dakota State team (less heralded, maybe, but ranked a very respectable 38th by Massey) at the same event, Carolina won 83-48. And, as any great team should, they have been dominating less talented competition, with the latest example being an 82-40 dismantling of Boston University. Wins might be expected in that kind of game, but 40-point wins don’t really deserve to be filed away as simply expected wins.
The big surprise of this team has been how much better and more consistent it has been on the offensive end than most of Banghart’s previous teams. Last year’s team was pretty much dead average offensively, ranking 127th in FG%, 149th in 2FG%, and 97th in 3FG%. They made it work by being an elite defensive team and not turning the ball over to maximize their possessions, but it made games uglier than they should have been and capped their ceiling against teams that could score just enough to make them uncatchable. So far this year, they’re shooting 48% from the field (21st), 55% inside the arc (29th), and 36% from long range (44th), all more than respectable numbers that allow them to bury teams they’re better than and give them more than a chance if their defense has a bad day or runs into a really good offensive team. That’s been paired with a typically Banghart-y defense that holds opponents to under 40% shooting from the field and forces 20 turnovers a game — those numbers won’t look as pretty when they’ve played more conference opponents, but there are worse places from which a team could start ACC play.
Indya Nivar has generated a lot of the headlines from that defense, with her 43 steals on the season ranking 2nd in the country, but she’s not the only one: Ciera Toomey is averaging 1.5 blocks per game, and the Heels have 3 players averaging better than a steal a game even without Nivar’s ridiculous 3.9 — Elina Aarnisalo, Nyla Brooks, and Taliyah Henderson. If they have a weakness on defense, it’s that they haven’t been a very good rebounding team, which has held them back from finishing several defensive possessions when they should have. Some drop-off was to be expected after the loss of the best rebounding frontcourt in the ACC, and it’s also been hard to deal with not having Blanca Thomas fully healthy and available so far this season. Nyla Harris, the Louisville transfer who was expected to replace Alyssa Ustby, has been a little disappointing in that regard, averaging just 5.7 rebounds per game and only 2.9 of those on the defensive end. That said, Toomey has been better than expected — as part of her game’s massive evolution from last year to this one, she’s averaging 7 boards a game to lead her team.
Offensively, the two biggest stories have arguably been Toomey and Aarnisalo. Toomey started the season with a lot more responsibility on her shoulders than anybody could have expected; Blanca Thomas was unavailable and that made Toomey UNC’s only real option at center. This could have been a scary proposition given Toomey’s reluctance to bang around in the post last year, but she’s turned a new leaf and become a legitimate and awesome post player as a sophomore. She’s second in the country in 2FG%, shooting a torrid 77% on her way to 11.2 points per game, and just by the eye test, she’s playing through contact down low, has developed a couple of post moves and counters to find her shots, and just looks a lot more confident playing big. Aarnisalo, the point guard transfer from UCLA, has taken the reins of the offense with Reniya Kelly working back from injury and given the Heels a real scoring boost — 52% from the field and 38% from 3 are great numbers underlying her 11.5 points per game, and after her season at UCLA featured much worse scoring efficiency, it’s been great to see. Nyla Brooks, the hyped first-year player, has been as advertised or better. She’s a pest on defense and leads the team in outside shooting, hitting 41% of her three-pointers en route to 10.1 points a game off the bench. Once the game slows down for her off the bounce and she figures out how to get to the rim in college (and makes her free throws; she’s at just 27% so far), she’s going to be a star.
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I should also mention Indya Nivar. The big knock on her game has been that she plays like a much better scorer than she’s actually been, and while that’s still kind of true, it’s so far been much less true than the past few seasons. She’s shooting 50% from the field, 57% from inside the arc, and 31% from three-point range. Those first two numbers are great and the third is at least tolerable, which are far cries from what she did last year. She’s been getting a lot of easy looks because of all those steals turning into open transition opportunities, but even that’s not nothing, and it’s all added up to her leading UNC in scoring with 12.6 points per game. She’s also the team’s assists leader with 3.7 a game and adds 5.7 rebounds. It’s fair to be skeptical that it’ll hold up in ACC play just based on her whole body of work, but at the moment, she’s playing at an all-conference level for a team that has needed it. I’d still rather she not lead the team in field goal attempts, but it’s only mildly infuriating now compared to previous years.
The next step for this team will be Kelly and Thomas returning from injury. Kelly has played in most games, but clearly has not been 100%. Her shooting numbers have been abysmal as she recovers from a knee injury, and it’s been spilling over into the rest of her game. Thomas, meanwhile, has just returned to action in the last couple of games, so it’s been hard to judge her development as she hasn’t quite returned fully to game shape. If she can have made even half the leap that battery mate Toomey has this season, this team gets a lot scarier in the frontcourt, espcially because Thomas was already a very good defender. The same goes for Nyla Harris, who hasn’t been injured but has looked a little less than herself so far this season. She’s averaging 57% shooting from the field and her 10 point/5.7 rebound averages aren’t bad, but they haven’t been all that needle-moving, either. Based on what I saw in her Louisville tape, there’s a significantly more impactful player in there.
As mentioned, the Heels will open ACC play on Sunday at home against #22 Louisville. They’ll have a couple more nonconference contests against UNCW and Charleston Southern before conference play starts for good on the 29th. Keep checking back here for more updates: I promise they’ll be more regular from here on out.
