The MVP race got a little more interesting when the Oklahoma City Thunder lost in the NBA Cup semifinals to the Spurs over the weekend. Despite the loss, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remained the leader in terms of odds and my leader as well.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
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1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+130)
Points Per Game: 32.8 (2nd)
Assists Per Game: 6.4 (15th)
Rebounds Per Game: 4.7 RPG (95th)
Despite the Thunder dropping to 24-2 on the season with a NBA Cup Seminal loss to the Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s odds for NBA MVP shortened from +160 to +130. SGA scored 29 points in the loss and played 37 minutes with a 12-of-23 performance from the field. SGA is shooting an absurd 56% from the field and 43.7% from three this season on 19.4 field goal attempts and 5.0 triples per game (plus 88.4 FT%).
In all three months of action, SGA has been top 10 in usage rate with percentages of 38.5, 31.4, and 31%. The knocks on SGA has been the lack of fourth quarters played, but he’s only missed one game so far, and still have a chance to break the 2016-17 Warriors all-time win record of 73-9. DraftKings lists Oklahoma City at +500 odds to break that record, meaning a $100 bet wins $500 if the Thunder win 74 games. It’s not far-fetched and with so many teams tanking amid SGA and the Thunder being double-digit favorites on a nightly basis.
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2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (+150)
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Points Per Game: 29.2 (5th)
Rebounds Per Game: 12.3 (1st)
Assists Per Game: 11.0 (1st)
With Denver missing Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, Nikola Jokic‘s usage rate of 31.7% in December (five games, 4-1 record) is up from 29.2% in November (14 games, 13-1 record). The Nuggets have also played some of the league’s worst teams lately, beating Indiana, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Sacramento — four teams combined for a 35-70 record.
Jokic is averaging a 31.4-point triple-double to start December (11.6 rebounds, 10.6 assists) with the teams’ lone loss coming to the Mavericks. Jokic ranks top five in points, rebounds, and assists per game, plus is shooting an impressive 57.4% from the floor in December, which doesn’t compete with his 64.9% mark in November. Jokic is doing it all for Denver.
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3. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers (+320)
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Points Per Game: 35.0 (1st)
Assists Per Game: 9.1 (3rd)
Rebounds Per Game: 9.2 (T-13th)
Luka Doncic missed two games in December, which decreased his odds from +270 to +320. In the three games since returning from the short absence, Doncic scored 29, 35, and 31 points with one triple-double. Doncic’s volume has stayed the same with LeBron James back in the mix and Austin Reaves playing at a Most Improved Player level.
Doncic has attempted at least 22 field goal attempts in five straight games and eight of the past nine. Doncic’s scored at least 29 points in 10 straight games and 35 or more in six of those contests. He continues to lead the NBA with 34.7 points per game and a league-high 36.7% usage rate (39.3% in December). Doncic has missed six games, so he should be in good shape to be in contention all season barring an injury.
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4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+5500)
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Points Per Game: 27.5 (11th)
Rebounds Per Game: 6.4 (45th)
Assists Per Game: 9.3 (2nd)
The fourth spot is up for grabs lately with Cade Cunningham‘s start to December. Despite the Pistons staying hot with a 4-1 record in the month, Cunningham’s numbers have declined. Cunningham is averaging 20.4 points, 8.4 assists, and 5.2 rebounds, which is way down from his 31.6 points, 9.8 assists, and 6.8 rebounds in November.
Detroit still owns the best record in the Eastern Conference at 20-5, which is driving force in Cunningham’s odds. The Pistons play the Celtics on Peacock and Hornets on NBA TV in two of the next three games, so there is potential for his odds to shorten a tad or stay the same with the continued national exposure.
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5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+8000)
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Points Per Game: 26.2 (14th)
Rebounds Per Game: 12.9 (2nd)
Blocks Per Game: 3.6 (1st)
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs handed the Thunder their second loss of the season, which advanced San Antonio to the NBA Cup Final. Victor Wembanyama only played 21 minutes, but boy were they meaningful. Wemby scored 22 points, grabbed nine rebounds, and had three combined blocks and steals, including 15 points in the fourth quarter!
San Antonio did go 9-3 without Wembanyama and his 12 missed games puts him at a maximum of 70 played, which is barely any wriggle room with the 65-game requirement to win an award. Odds are against Wembanayma for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, but when he is on the court — you can’t argue he is playing like both an MVP and DPOY.
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Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (+15000)
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Points Per Game: 28.8 (7th)
Rebounds Per Game: 3.1 (150th+)
Assists Per Game: 6.4 (16th)
The Knicks are in the NBA Cup final and riding a five-game winning streak. Jalen Brunson has been on a tear during the winning streak scoring 26, 33, 30, 35, and a 40-point effort over Orlando in the Cup Semifinals. If Victor Wembanyama does not meet the 65-game requirement, then the door is open for Brunson to earn fourth and fifth-place votes for MVP.
Brunson was tied for 10th in MVP voting with James Harden and Evan Mobley last season as they each received one total vote. Brunson finished fifth in 2023-24 with 142 total votes. I think he can finish as high as fourth this season and maybe third if there’s an injury or two.
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Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers (+15000)
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Points Per Game: 31.7 (3rd)
Rebounds Per Game: 4.7 (T-100th)
Assists Per Game: 7.5 (8th)
Tyrese Maxey dropped from +10000 to +15000 as expected making room for Victor Wembanyama to reenter the race post injury, plus Jalen Brunson. Maxey missed the 76ers’ recent game versus the Hawks, which resulted in a 120-117 loss. Maxey’s 31.5 points per game remains third in the NBA and 7.2 assists is ninth.
Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
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