The UEFA Women’s Champions League draw for the knockout phase took place on Thursday, with the top 12 teams learning their fate.
If defending champions Arsenal overcome minnows OH Leuven in the playoff stage, they will face Chelsea, while the winners of VfL Wolfsburg and Juventus will take on eight-time champions OL Lyonnes.
On the other side of the bracket, Manchester United were drawn against Atlético Madrid in the playoffs, before a possible game with Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals, while Real Madrid can set up a first women’s UWCL Clasico against Barcelona if they beat Paris FC.
Here’s what we made of the draw.
It was a good draw for …
CHELSEA
Chelsea will feel more confident with the idea of facing local rivals Arsenal in the quarterfinals, as the Blues have beaten them numerous times in the WSL, and they have avoided Barcelona in the semifinal, the team that has knocked them out at that stage for the past three seasons.
MANCHESTER UNITED
United have also been given a good draw and will be confident they can defeat Atlético Madrid, having already done so in the league phase. They will also play the fourth-seeded team, Bayern Munich, in the quarterfinal. Of all four possible quarterfinal opponents, they have probably got their preferred one. And though they are unlikely to beat Bayern, positivity will be high.
It was a bad draw for …
REAL MADRID
Real Madrid are likely to make it past the playoffs; however, a quarterfinal tie against Barcelona awaits, setting up the first El Clásico in the Women’s Champions League. Though they may be hopeful that they can defeat Barcelona, given the Catalans’ current injury issues, the former winners are still as dominant as ever, making it arguably the worst draw Madrid could have got.
OL LYONNES
Lyonnes drew the toughest quarterfinal possible, as they will face either Wolfsburg or Juventus, both of whom came incredibly close to making it into the top four. They’ll still be expected to reach the semifinal but it’s tough work and a semifinal against Chelsea or Arsenal (who they lost to last season) is not easy either.
Knockout phase play-off preview
Reminder: How the new UWCL format works
• The top four go straight through to the quarterfinals, played in March and April.
• The eight teams in positions 5-12 play in the knockout phase playoffs, in February, to earn a place in the quarterfinals.
OH Leuven (12) vs. Arsenal (5)
Arsenal defeated Leuven 3-0 on Wednesday in the final league-phase game, and moved past the Belgian debutants with ease. Leuven failed to register a shot on target and conceded three goals, likely boosting Arsenal’s confidence about reaching the quarterfinals.
However, there is a mental element to this. Leuven may have opted to sit back defensively to try and limit the damage, given they knew they would get through if Bayern beat Valerenga. But if they were more desperate for a goal, hitting Arsenal on the counter attack may have shifted the scoreline. It will surely be a very different setup in the playoffs but the reigning title holders still hold the advantage and should make it through.
VfL Wolfsburg (9) vs. Juventus (8)
Possibly the closest of the ties, both teams almost made it into the automatic top four spot, but missed their chances through their own faults with defeats on the final matchday. Wolfsburg have made it a habit of losing from winning positions; Juventus have blown hot and cold after a promising 3-3 draw with OL Lyonnes.
If the real Wolfsburg show up, they have the ability to demolish any side. But if they don’t then you’d back Juventus to pull something out of nothing and spoil the party.
Atlético Madrid (11) vs. Manchester United (6)
A repeat of the league-phase clash that ended 1-0 to United, despite a red card for both sides, there is little to separate the pair. The scrappy and fiery nature of that game suggests it will be a blockbuster playoff.
United desperately need transfer reinforcements in January, while Atlético would benefit from some consistency. Both sides are capable of foiling the other, but have serious vulnerabilities too, with neither producing the most clinical displays thus far. But it should be United, with their tactical press and movement, who get through.
Paris FC (10) vs. Real Madrid (7)
Real Madrid would have been devastated to miss out on a place in the top four after a shock 1-1 draw against lowly Twente. They have a habit of scoring late goals, but have squandered opportunities and have not made it easy for themselves in this competition.
Paris FC, though, have arguably done a worse job of orchestrating their own downfall and therefore, it is unlikely that they will defeat Madrid. The Spanish side will have a lot of confidence but will also be bruised from coming so close to missing out on an automatic path, which is probably the worst mix of emotions you want to face before a playoff.
Way too early predictions
Realistically, holders Arsenal are likely to beat Belgian minnows OH Leuven, and should do so comfortably, but their run is expected to end in the quarterfinals. A meeting with domestic rivals Chelsea would pose a huge challenge, with the Blues shaping up for a serious Champions League push after falling behind in this season’s WSL.
Juventus vs. Wolfsburg is arguably the hardest tie to predict. However, Wolfsburg’s habit of surrendering winning positions — including against a nine-player Real Madrid and from 1-0 up against Chelsea — may give Juventus belief. Even so, their path likely ends against eight-time winners OL Lyonnes, who finished the league phase unbeaten and will be determined to reclaim their European crown.
This would set up a blockbuster semifinal between OL Lyonnes and Chelsea, a tie that is almost impossible to call. Crucially, the WSL champions will avoid Barcelona for the first time since 2022 and confidence will be high, so maybe it’s their year?
On the other side of the bracket, Real Madrid came agonizingly close to finishing in the top four, but they should easily overcome Paris FC, who have struggled for consistency this season. However, the draw means a win would see Madrid face Barcelona in the semifinals, creating a women’s El Clásico on the European stage for the first time. Or course, Barcelona’s experience and pedigree should see them progress and reach yet another semifinal.
Manchester United should have the edge over Atlético Madrid, though that may depend on how well they strengthen in the January transfer window, with reinforcements in both attack and defense desperately needed. Even so, their journey is unlikely to continue much further, as Bayern Munich would present a step up in quality that United may struggle to overcome.
That outcome would set up a Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona semifinal, a tie that should favor Barcelona.
