Villanova and Wisconsin square off in one of those neutral site games that won’t be very neutral. The Wildcats and Badgers meet in the Milwaukee Hoops Showdown, located a little more than an hour from Wisconsin’s campus.
Nova has lost both previous times it left Philadelphia this season, most recently by 28 to Michigan. Wisconsin got hammered by Nebraska in its last game, 90-60.
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Both teams have something to prove, and the game should be tight. That’s why my Wisconsin vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks call for underdog Villanova to cover a bigger than expected spread.
Wisconsin vs Villanova prediction
Wisconsin vs Villanova best bet: Villanova +4.5 (-110)
The Wisconsin Badgers have shown it’s a different team when facing high-level competition. They are 2-3 in Quad I and II games, both straight up and ATS. The two Quad I opponents they’ve faced produced lopsided losses, 98-70 vs. BYU and the 30-point blowout at Nebraska.
The Badgers scored less than a point per possession in three of the five games and had effective shooting below 45% in three of the five, the only times this season either has happened. Wisconsin shoots 100 points worse on two pointers against good teams (.512 vs. Quad I & II, .611 vs. III & IV) and 85 points worse from three (.288 compared to .373).
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The defense has been even shakier against good teams. Wisconsin gave up more than a point per possession in four of the five games, and just once in the other six.
The Badgers allowed four of the five foes to post effective shooting over 50%, something that happened just twice in the six Quad III and IV games. The top two quadrants shoot 65 points better from three than worse opponents (.384 to .318) and 38 points better from two (.529 to .491).
Of course, it’s harder to do splits for Villanova, because the Cats have only played two Quad I foes and none from Quad II. They lost both of those games, to BYU (an ATS win) and at Michigan.
Villanova matches up well with the Badgers, however. The Wildcats are a solid outside shooting team, ranking No. 63 in the nation in three-point percentage. Wisconsin has the No. 248 ranked three-point defense. Nova is even worse than UW at perimeter defense, but Wisconsin doesn’t have the shooters to take advantage (No. 191 in three-point shooting).
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The teams are separated by just two spots in the Torvik rankings, and KenPom has Villanova ranked five spots higher. So the 4.5-point spread in Wisconsin’s favor doesn’t make much sense, even if they get credited for home-court advantage for a game in the Milwaukee Bucks’ home arena.
Look for Nova to stay closer than that, even if it doesn’t win outright.
Wisconsin vs Villanova same-game parlay
Villanova plays at the No. 349 tempo (out of 365 teams) in the nation and has slowed down as competition improved. Wisconsin plays faster but has slowed the pace against higher-quality opponents.
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Neither team plays strong defense, but the under has hit in four of the team’s seven combined Quad I and II games this season.
Opponents are hitting 38% of the threes they attempt against Villanova. That perimeter defense ranks in the bottom 30 in the country.
Duquesne, Penn, Old Dominion and Sacred Heart all hit more than 10 treys against the Wildcats. John Blackwell is hitting .411 from three and has hit 15 in the last four games. It’s not a sure thing, but at the odds it’s been given, the prop is an early holiday gift.
Wisconsin vs Villanova SGP
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John Blackwell Over 2.5 made threes
Our beyond the arc SGP: Hodge exposes Badgers defense
Bryce Lindsay is Villanova’s top scorer and best outside shooter. Point guard Acaden Lewis is the Wildcat’s No. 2 scorer. Inside player Duke Brennan hit all eight of his shots in the last game. Wisconsin’s defense is average at best and sub-par against top quality opponents.
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It’s a safe bet to assume that Nova’s fourth option, also a double-digit scorer, will benefit from a lack of defensive attention. Matthew Hodge has been in double figures five times in 10 games. Look for Lewis to make the extra pass and find him against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin vs Villanova SGP
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John Blackwell Over 2.5 made threes
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Matthew Hodge Over 8.5 points
Wisconsin vs Villanova odds
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Spread: Wisconsin -4.5 (-110) | Villanova +4.5 (-110)
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Moneyline: Wisconsin +185 | Villanova -225
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Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
Wisconsin vs Villanova betting trend to know
Villanova has covered the Spread in 18 of the last 34 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Villanova.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Villanova
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Location |
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
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Date |
Friday, December 19, 2025 |
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Tip-off |
8:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
FOX |
Wisconsin vs Villanova key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
