Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Tatsuya Imai and Zac Gallen top the list of available starters on the free-agent market. Will King’s signing help break the dam and start a run on deals for starters?
“I’m surprised it’s taken this long,” one American League executive said. “At some point, teams will decide to start the offseason.”
There are a number of factors that might have led to the slow-moving market for starting pitchers:
• Valdez, Suárez and Gallen all rejected qualifying offers, making potential suitors subject to Draft pick compensation and other penalties if they sign any of them.
• Cease’s contract might have boosted asking prices and/or expectations for the other high-end starters, all of whom have some type of flaw in their free-agent résumés.
• The potential trade market includes a number of quality arms, giving clubs options when it comes to adding pitching.
The trade market might be the most important of the three, especially after the Orioles traded two of the top 37 picks from last year’s Draft (plus two other prospects from their Top 30 and a Competitive Balance Round A pick – No. 33 – in this year’s Draft) to the Rays on Friday for Shane Baz, a talented 26-year-old who has battled injuries throughout his career.
Baz had a 10-12 record and 4.87 ERA in 31 starts last season, throwing 166 1/3 innings in his first full, injury-free big league campaign. He struggled during his home starts at George M. Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA in 16 starts), though he pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 15 road starts. Baz allowed 18 of his 26 home runs in those home outings.
Baz posted a 3.06 ERA in 14 starts (79 1/3 innings) in 2024, his first season back following Tommy John surgery. The righty will step right into the Orioles’ rotation, though Baltimore paid a steep price in terms of prospects to add the 2017 first-round Draft pick.
“That’s a huge return for Baz,” a National League executive said. “It makes a ton of sense for the Rays and for the Orioles, who are trying to win now and don’t trade anyone off their [Major League] club.”
Not counting Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner who continues to be the biggest name on the trade market, the list of available pitchers is led by Brewers righty Freddy Peralta, who may or may not be dealt prior to the season.
Other pitchers that could be moved include Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore, Pirates righty Mitch Keller, Royals lefty Kris Bubic and Marlins righty Edward Cabrera.
The Baz trade could cause teams shopping arms to raise their asking prices, though as one NL executive pointed out, “The asks were already high.”
With the asking prices in trades already exorbitant and the cost of free-agent pitching as high as it has ever been, the pitching market could take several more weeks to develop.
“So many teams need pitching, so the sellers and the agents aren’t feeling a time crunch to get deals done,” an AL executive said. “Position players like [Kyle] Tucker, [Cody] Bellinger or [Bo] Bichette may all sign before any of the starting pitchers do.”
The lone exception is Imai, who turns 28 on May 9. The right-hander posted a 1.92 ERA over 163 2/3 innings last season for the Seibu Lions, the fourth straight season his ERA has been below 3.00. The Cubs and Yankees have been considered the favorites to sign Imai, though other teams, including the Mets and Red Sox, have also been connected to him.
Imai’s situation will have to be resolved by Jan. 2, when his posting window ends, so he could be the next high-end free-agent pitcher to come off the board. Unlike Valdez, Suárez and Gallen, Imai – who is reportedly planning to meet with interested clubs in person this month – does not have a qualifying offer attached to him, though he also doesn’t have a big league track record to offer potential suitors.
The qualifying offer may have been a contributing factor in King’s decision to return to San Diego, especially given the structure of his deal. The Padres were the only team that did not have to surrender Draft picks to sign King, who can opt out of his deal after either 2026 or ’27 to become a free agent once again.
Other starting pitchers on the free-agent market include Nick Martinez, Chris Bassitt, Zack Littell, Justin Verlander, Zach Eflin, Tyler Mahle, Lucas Giolito, Michael Lorenzen, Patrick Corbin and Erick Fedde, none of whom was extended a qualifying offer.
