The first round of the College Football Playoff is in the books, with the stage now set for the quarterfinal. We’ve got a great battle in the Orange Bowl, a duel between the Oregon Ducks and Texas Tech Red Raiders with the victor likeliest to face the Indiana Hoosiers in the semifinal.
Let’s dive into our Orange Bowl predictions, with 4 projections for what happens between Oregon vs Texas Tech on Jan. 1.
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Cameron Dickey Bottled Up, Finishes Under 65 Rushing Yards
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Texas Tech’s defense rightfully gets a majority of the national attention, but running back Cameron Dickey has also been pivotal to the success of the Big 12 champions. The sophomore finished the season with 1,311 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. However, this could prove to be a difficult matchup for the Red Raiders’ ground game.
In the regular season, Oregon allowed just 107.2 rushing yards per game and a 3.19 yards-per-carry average. That success includes neutralizing Iowa (2.3 ypc) and USC (1.9 ypc) on the ground, and the Indiana Hoosiers (3.0 ypc) had some issues running the football versus the Ducks, too. The tough matchup will result in Dickey finishing under 65 rushing yards for the first time since Oct. 25.
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Dante Moore Throws an INT, Finishes Under 210 Yards
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Dante Moore has only faced a defense similar to this once in 2025. Back in that game against Indiana, he was picked off twice and completed 61.8 percent of his 34 pass attempts while finishing with 186 passing yards. The Hoosiers’ defense finished the regular season ranked second in points allowed per game and surrendered the third-fewest points per drive. Texas Tech’s defense led the nation in rushing yards allowed (68.5) and allowed the third-fewest points per game (10.9). Furthermore, the Red Raiders ranked 16th in interceptions (16) and third in passing efficiency allowed (103.86). We think Moore gets picked off in the Orange Bowl, and Texas Tech will hold him under 210 passing yards.
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Under 40 Total Points Scored in the Orange Bowl
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We expect points to be at a premium in the Orange Bowl. After all, these two defenses ranked fourth (Oregon) and fifth (Texas Tech) respectively while ranking in the top 10 for stop rate and yards per play allowed. David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez, two All-Americans, are just a pair of the difference-makers that this Red Raiders defense has to contain the Ducks’ offense. On the other side, though, Oregon’s defense has more speed and better coaching than Texas Tech’s offense has encountered this season. It will all culminate in a very low-scoring game where we might only see the two teams combine for four touchdowns, if that.
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Oregon Ducks 20, Texas Tech Red Raiders 17
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Of all the matchups in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, this feels like the biggest toss-up. Texas Tech’s defense is fully capable of taking over this game, generating great pressure on Dante Moore and not letting the Ducks’ skill players get a ton of yards after first contact or after the catch. However, playoff experience and having the better quarterback matter. We also think that the Ducks’ experience playing against Indiana—whereas Texas Tech faced BYU and Utah—gives them an edge in this marquee matchup. It is a coin flip, but little things can decide games like this.
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