Now in his fourth year on the Hall of Fame ballot — after moving to the precipice of election with 70.3 percent last time around — Carlos Beltrán’s candidacy remains rather polarizing.
On merit alone, the longtime center fielder has one of the best cases for election among the players on the docket this year, based on his performance and production over a 20-year big league career. The Puerto Rican-born Beltrán was, after all, a Rookie of the Year winner (1999), a nine-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove honoree.
While Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters have to weigh that factor as they consider whether to put a check next to Beltrán’s name — with voting results announced at 6 p.m. ET on Jan. 20 — let’s focus on his on-field exploits here. Although he cracked the top five in MVP voting only once (finishing fourth in the NL in 2006) and fell short of many of the “conventional milestones,” like 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, here are five stats that make a strong case for Beltrán’s place in Cooperstown.
1,500 Runs and 1,500 RBIs
Only 38 players in AL/NL history have reached the 1,500 mark in both runs scored and runs batted in. With 1,582 runs and 1,587 RBIs, Beltrán is one of them.
Of those, 30 have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame — and that does not count Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, both of whom should be first-ballot electees.
That leaves only the following names not in Cooperstown: Alex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, Gary Sheffield, Barry Bonds and Rafael Palmeiro — a group of superstars connected to performance-enhancing drugs in some form.
Put simply, if a player scores and drives in 1,500 runs, Hall of Fame induction usually follows.
500 Doubles, 400 Home Runs and 300 Stolen Bases
Even more rare is the 500/400/300 club.
Only five players in AL/NL history have achieved 500 doubles, 400 homers and 300 steals in their careers. Here’s the list in full: Rodríguez, Bonds, Andre Dawson, Willie Mays … and Beltrán, who has 565 two-baggers, 435 dingers and 312 thefts. That is a collection of the most dynamic power-speed threats baseball has ever seen.
What’s wild is that even if you remove the qualifier for 500 doubles, the list remains unchanged: It’s the same five players — and only them. If you want to boil down Beltrán’s case to a single stat, this is as persuasive as any.
Unparalleled Stolen Base Rate
Speaking of swipes, Beltrán’s career stolen base success rate is the best among all players with at least 200 career steals in the Live Ball Era (since 1920).
Highest SB% in the Live Ball Era (minimum 200 SB)
It’s actually more noteworthy when laid out like so, because you can see the gap between Beltrán and Trea Turner at No. 2, followed by a much closer cluster rounding out the Top 5. And remember, the speedy Turner hasn’t been able to catch Beltrán even after a famously record-setting perfect season of swipes in 2023.
Of the 65 position players to reach 70 career WAR in AL/NL history in the Modern Era (since 1900), all but 10 — including Beltrán — are Hall of Famers.
The eight others? Many of the names already have been mentioned: Pujols, Rodríguez, Bonds and Palmeiro. The five remaining are Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich — a pair of second basemen who are two of the most overlooked players in the history of Hall voting — as well as Pete Rose and, none other than Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, who almost certainly will be first-balloters once their stellar careers come to an end.
Last but certainly not least, there’s Beltrán’s incredible October résumé.
In his postseason career, he slashed .307/.412/.609 — good for a 1.021 OPS that checks in among the top 10 in AL/NL history.
Highest Postseason OPS (minimum 100 PA)
Beltrán’s most memorable playoff performance came in 2004 with the Astros, when he hit eight homers to tie Bonds’ 2002 run for most in a single postseason (since surpassed by Randy Arozarena’s 10 in 2020). But Beltrán also crushed in the 2006 NLCS with the Mets (despite the lingering memory of that showdown being his infamous series-ending strikeout looking) as well as in the 2012 and ’13 playoffs with the Cardinals.
All told, Beltrán finished with 16 career postseason home runs and more walks (37) than strikeouts (33) in 65 games. That’s the sign of a star player rising to the occasion against the best the sport has to offer.
