Game notes
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Time and date: Tuesday, December 23 at 2:00 p.m. ET
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Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium — Boca Raton, FL
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Spread: Louisville (-7.5)
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All-time series: Louisville leads, 5-3
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Last meeting: Louisville 31, Toledo 6 — September 12, 1981
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Current streak: Louisville, 1 (1981)
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Toledo last bowl: 2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl, 48-46 win over Pittsburgh
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Louisville last bowl: 2024 Sun Bowl, 35-34 win over Washington
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2024 Boca Raton Bowl matchup: James Madison 27, WKU 17
Setting the scene
The 2025 Boca Raton Bowl features a battle between two programs that haven’t met in 44 years. The Toledo Rockets (8-4, 6-2 MAC) and Louisville Cardinals (8-4, 4-4 ACC) sports identical overall records, and one receives an opportunity to enhance its season with a trophy.
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Both Toledo and Louisville added hardware last December in unforgettable fashion. Toledo outlasted Pittsburgh 48-46 in the first-ever 6-overtime bowl game at the GameAbove Sports Bowl, while Louisville staved off a late-Washington 2-point attempt for a 35-34 victory at the Sun Bowl. The Rockets face a second-straight ACC bowl opponent, while the Cardinals face a MAC team in the postseason for the first time since 2003.
A new wrinkle to this game — Bush’s Beans takes over as the sponsor, and the bean theme will be prevalent in Boca Raton. In fact, up to 2,000 fans can enter the game by presenting a can of Bush’s Beans opposed to a ticket for this highly-anticipated Dec. 23 matchup.
Toledo Rockets outlook
For the first time in a decade, Toledo lost its remarkable stability at the head coaching position. During the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl, Jason Candle stepped in as the interim for a departing Matt Campbell, launching a 10-year journey as the Rockets’ frontman. Candle guided Toledo to a pair of MAC championships, three bowl wins, and 10 seasons of .500+ records. But he’s off to UConn now, and co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Robert Weiner will serve as interim for this game, before Mike Jacobs takes over for the 2026 campaign.
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While this Rockets team didn’t attain its goal of a MAC title, they were as dominant defensively as any MAC team in recent memory. Toledo currently ranks second nationally in total defense (248 yards allowed per game) and fourth in scoring defense (12.2 points allowed per game), consistently stuffing opponents in a variety of manners. Six of 12 opponents notched single-digit points on the Rockets this year, and nobody managed north of 28 against a unit which saw nine of 11 starters earn All-MAC status.
Toledo will be slightly shorthanded for this high-stakes matchup, down coordinator Vince Kehres as well as three all-conference selections in defensive end Malachi Davis, middle linebacker Chris D’Appolonia, and strong safety Braden Awls. However, the Rockets still remain loaded on that side of the ball, led by free safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. The All-American will round out a spectacular season featuring 73 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, and three forced fumbles before he becomes the fifth Toledo defensive back drafted to the NFL since 2019.
Toledo’s seventh ranked passing defense — which ranks first in opponent completion percentage at 48.9 — also features a talented cornerback tandem of Avery Smith and Andre Fuller who combine for 21 pass deflections on the year. Factor in Nasir Bowers — who will see an expanded role without Awls — and Toledo operates with one of the best secondaries in the country, renowned for flying to the ball for deflections and turnover creation.
Other standouts on the defense include outside linebacker K’Von Sherman, who ranks atop the team in tackles (85) and tackles for loss (14.5) as a frequent backfield presence. The key cogs up front include defensive tackles Martez Poynter and Esean Carter — a pair of All-MAC honorees who command significant attention up front in a defense that surrenders the third-fewest rushing yards per carry in the FBS (2.5).
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Unfortunately for the Rockets, they’ll be without sixth-year senior quarterback Tucker Gleason, whose college career ended prematurely in the regular season finale with a back fracture. Thus, the reins of the offense are handed down to redshirt freshman Kalieb Osborne who will be making his first collegiate start. Osborne finished 15-of-24 with 260 yards and two touchdowns in a limited regular season sample size. The quarterback also presents impressive mobility, collecting 205 rushing yards and a pair of scores on a 6.2 average.
Toledo’s offense scored 42+ points in five of 12 contests thus far, and the Rockets offer a slew of skill position standouts. Chip Trayanum is a seasoned sixth-year senior playing his final collegiate game, and the explosive running back stands 50 rushing yards away from his first 1,000-yard season. Also wrapping up their Toledo careers are receivers Trayvon Rudolph and Junior Vandeross III. Vandeross is the MAC leader in receptions and receiving touchdowns and eyes his second-straight bowl MVP. Last December, he pierced through an ACC defense by posting 12 receptions, 194 yards, and a touchdown in a thrilling 5-overtime win over Pitt.
Louisville Cardinals outlook
Louisville was in prime position for a College Football Playoff appearance a week into November, holding a No. 14 ranking in the AP Poll with an inside track for the ACC Championship Game. But the Cardinals lost by the skin of their teeth several times on their homefield, falling in overtime to California and by one point to Clemson in consecutive contests.
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Health issues then worsened as a severely shorthanded Louisville stumbled at SMU for its only loss by more than three points all year, but Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals recovered just in time to shellack rival Kentucky in a 41-0 shutout. But even after a chaotic November, Louisville receives an opportunity at the third-straight 9+ win season in three years under Brohm — something the program hasn’t accomplished since 2012-14.
The Cardinals enter this matchup with starting quarterback Miller Moss back in the lineup, a little less than a month after he diced the Kentucky defense with three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdowns. The former USC starter, who ironically won Holiday Bowl MVP honors against Louisville in 2023 with 372 passing yards and a career-high six touchdowns, looks to capture that postseason magic in what is set to be his final collegiate game.
While Moss is healthy after missing a start in November, that is not the same case in the running back room. Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown, and Duke Watson all ended the regular season banged up, and it’s not clear who returns for Tuesday’s matchup. But Louisville can be comforted in the fact Braxton Jennings and Shaun Boykin Jr. posted 113 and 101 yards respectively in their latest contest, proving the sheer amount of depth that exists at the position group.
Another injured Cardinal is star wide receiver Chris Bell, a surefire NFL prospect who missed on a 1,000-yard campaign by 83 yards. The explosive receiver’s presence will be greatly missed against a Toledo secondary laden with pro talent, and new faces must be called upon. Caullin Lacy (547 yards) and Dacari Collins (219 yards) are the only other Louisville players above 200 receiving yards on the season, which means there’s an opportunity for an unlikely hero to step up and deliver a legacy performance in Boca Raton.
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Louisville’s offense enjoyed several strong showings in 2025, but the Cardinals were slightly stronger on the defensive side, currently ranking 15th in the FBS in fewest yards allowed. They defended both the run and the pass at exceptional levels and did a stellar job exiting the field — situated at 14th in fourth down defense and 20th in third down defense.
The main names to watch on this unit are defensive line Clev Lubin and outside linebacker TJ Quinn, who both landed All-ACC honors. Lubin is the chief pass rusher on this Cardinal squad, collecting 7.0 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, and five bat-downs on a loaded defensive line. Quinn operates at the second level as the team’s leading tackler with 87 stops, including 6.5 behind the line of scrimmage. The outside linebacker is also one of four Cardinals with multiple interceptions on a team great at forcing the issue. Another player in this category is cornerback Jabari Mack, who aims to limit the number of connections to Junior Vandeross this ACC vs. MAC battle.
Prediction
These are two of the better defenses in college football, and you can expect these commanding units to control the flow of this game. Points will be at a premium as both teams are extremely balanced against the run and pass, and there should be a lack of explosive plays in Boca Raton — especially given injuries to Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason and Louisville wide receiver Chris Bell.
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The turnover battle plays an even larger role than normal in this battle of field position, and it wouldn’t be surprising if at least one touchdown stemmed from a pick-six or scoop-and-score — or at least was set up by a takeaway with a long runback. Louisville’s run game provides just enough juice to get to the finish line and escape Boca Raton with Brohm’s second-straight bowl trophy.
Prediction: Louisville 21, Toledo 13
