Did Red Sox give up too much for Contreras? Prospect expert weighs in originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Red Sox got a much-needed right-handed bat and first base upgrade in Willson Contreras, but did they give up too much in their trade with the St. Louis Cardinals?
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Boston parted ways with right-hander Hunter Dobbins and minor-league righties Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. Dobbins, a former top pitching prospect in the Red Sox system, showed potential in his first taste of big-league action before suffering an ACL tear in July. Fajardo was the No. 8-ranked Red Sox prospect, per SoxProspects.com, while Aita landed just outside the top 30.
Is Contreras worth that price? Ian Cundall of SoxProspects.com shared his take on the trade in a recent conversation with NBC Sports Boston.
“I thought it was a fair return,” Cundall said. “They didn’t have to give up any of their top prospects, and Fajardo is the best prospect there. Obviously, Dobbins is a separate case since he’s already graduated.”
The Red Sox initially acquired Fajardo from the Chicago White Sox for reliever Cam Booser last offseason. The 19-year-old has shown high upside, but one noticeable flaw may have resulted in his departure.
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“The issue with him, and it’s something that is a trend with actually all three pitchers in this deal, is he just really struggles to strike guys out with his fastball,” Cundall said. “And if we know one thing with Craig Breslow, they want in-zone swing and miss, and especially on the fastball. You see guys like Garrett Crochet or Aroldis Chapman, all the guys he’s acquiring at the major league level, that’s what they do. Unfortunately, that’s the weakest part of Fajardo’s game.”
As for Aita, Cundall sees the 22-year-old having some future success as a reliever, but he isn’t someone that Red Sox fans should lose any sleep over trading away.
“His best thing is he can really spin a breaking ball,” Cundall said. “He’s got a sweeper and a curveball, and the sweeper is one of the highest spin rates in the org. … But I think other than the sweeper, it’s more kind of like an average fringy arsenal. Long-term, he’s probably best suited for the bullpen.
“I think he could be a pretty decent reliever there, because if you can spin a breaking ball like he can, you’re gonna get a shot at the major leagues. He’s a pretty high floor guy, but I’m just not sure how much upside there is there.”
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Dobbins, of course, was the headliner of Boston’s trade package. The 26-year-old amassed a 4.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 45 strikeouts and 17 walks over his first 13 MLB appearances (11 starts). A torn ACL ended his rookie year prematurely, but he was expected to battle for the No. 5 spot in the 2026 Red Sox rotation.
Despite Dobbins’ upside, Cundall has no issue with Boston sending him to St. Louis for help at first base after missing out on Pete Alonso in free agency.
“I always go back to, you have to give something to get something,” Cundall said. “When you look at the Red Sox, their first base production they’ve had gotten in the last few years has just been unacceptable. That’s supposed to be one of your marquee offensive positions. I think their wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) was 86 or something last year. You can’t have that and then also a bad defense, which is the other aspect that they’ve had.
“I think with Contreras, when you look at the available options, he’s making half as much money as Pete Alonso. He’s a substantially better defender. And yes, Alonso’s gonna hit more home runs, but I think when you look at the end of the day, their overall production like wRC+, it’s gonna be pretty similar, because Contreras can get on base, he’s gonna hit 20 to 25 home runs. He’s gonna hit a lot of doubles at Fenway, especially given his ability to pull the ball in the air. Obviously, he’s an above-average defender at first. So I think that he fits well.”
Like Fajardo and Aita, Dobbins has struggled to get whiffs on his fastball. Cundall believes that’s a big reason the Breslow-led front office was comfortable including him in the deal.
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“You can get by on that for a few weeks or a few months, but it’s just hard to get by without a bat-missing fastball at the major leagues to be anything more than a back-end starter year after year,” Cundall said. “I think that’s the thing with Dobbins is, as much as I love the mentality, the personality, the way he pitches, there’s a lot to like there. He’s got a really wide-ranging arsenal, he can really mix and spin things.
“But at the end of the day, you’ve got to be able to establish your fastball, and he just doesn’t really have that pitch right now. … So to me, he’s more of a back-end type, and they just got an everyday upgrade at first base on a very reasonable deal.”
With Contreras in the fold, it’ll be interesting to monitor how the Red Sox proceed with fellow first baseman Triston Casas. Casas missed most of the 2025 campaign due to a ruptured patellar tendon and will have to battle for a role on the 2026 club with Contreras expected to be the primary first baseman.
As for Boston’s pitching depth without Dobbins, it’s still in solid shape with Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison, and the newly acquired Johan Oviedo expected to compete for spots at the back end of the starting rotation.
